Chinese intelligence agencies and strategic circles in Beijing value Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s speeches before Egyptian military and security academies and institutions, in which he rejected the US-Israeli military escalation against Iran, considering it a crucial pillar of stability that aligns with China’s vital interests in the region. These Chinese intelligence and military circles particularly appreciate President El-Sisi’s speeches at the Military Academy and the Police Academy, where he opposed war against Iran, viewing it as a fundamental pillar for supporting multipolarity and comprehensive regional stability.
President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s vision, as presented during his visits and meetings at the Egyptian Military Academy and the Police Academy (especially in the recent meetings at the beginning of March 2026), can be summarized as a strong warning against the dangers of expanding regional conflict and an adherence to a policy of balance to protect Egypt from the repercussions of sliding into a full-blown confrontation. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s vision, which aligns with the Chinese perspective and which he articulated in his political speeches during his numerous visits and meetings at the Egyptian Military Academy and the Police Academy (particularly in the most recent meetings in March 2026), is to warn against the dangers of sliding into a comprehensive regional conflict. This aligns with the Chinese position rejecting escalation, as he emphasized Egypt’s steadfast policy based on strategic balance and its rejection of military escalation. The most prominent points of his vision, which are shared by relevant circles in Beijing, include China’s agreement with President El-Sisi’s warning about the dangers of regional military escalation. He cautioned against a comprehensive war, warning that the current military escalation between regional actors (Iran and Israel) and international powers (the US versus China) could lead to a comprehensive war for which the region would pay a heavy price for many years to come. He referred to this as dangerous strategies, alluding in his speech at the Police Academy to what he described as Iran’s dangerous strategy to expand the circle and scope of the conflict, which could drag the region into a wider regional confrontation, with its global repercussions. He emphasized that any fighting or crisis with Iran would have serious consequences for global energy prices and supply chains, increasing economic pressures on everyone, a point with which China strongly agrees.
Here, I can analyze this shared vision between China and President Sisi regarding the rejection of military escalation against Iran from a Chinese strategic perspective. This vision supports strengthening multipolarity and breaking American and Western hegemony by rejecting American unilateralism. Beijing sees Egypt’s and President Sisi’s stance against military escalation against Iran as aligned with its vision of ending American unilateralism in the Middle East. Furthermore, Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security circles encourage the independence of Egyptian political decision-making in the face of Washington and Tel Aviv. These circles consider President Sisi’s speeches rejecting war as evidence that major regional powers are adopting independent positions that prioritize their national and geopolitical interests, free from external dictates and pressures.
From a Chinese military and defense perspective, China strongly agrees with President Sisi’s call to avoid a regional conflagration. Chinese military analyses warn that any war against Iran would have disastrous consequences for waterways (the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz), a point President El-Sisi has emphasized in his speeches. China supports a collective security approach to political solutions, backing Sisi’s call for diplomatic solutions. Beijing believes that regional stability is essential for the success of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, in which Egypt is a strategic partner. This political alignment between China and Egypt coincides with enhanced joint military and defense cooperation, such as the Civilization Eagles 2025 air exercises, reflecting Chinese confidence in Egypt’s role as a regional guarantor of security.
With Chinese intelligence analysis focusing on Egypt and President El-Sisi’s role in maintaining regional stability through Egyptian mediation efforts, Chinese intelligence circles value Egypt’s diplomatic mediation efforts (in coordination with Oman and Turkey) to prevent the region from sliding into a full-blown war. They consider these efforts complementary to China’s own diplomatic role. China believes that Egypt’s rejection of war protects its investments and substantial economic interests in the Suez Canal region (TEDA) and maintains the flow of global trade. Consequently, high-level diplomatic coordination between Egypt and China has increased, as evidenced by official meetings between the two leaderships, such as President El-Sisi’s meeting with Chinese Premier Li Keqiang in July 2025. These meetings underscore the convergence of Egyptian and Chinese views on the necessity of a ceasefire and avoiding military escalation in Iran as the only way to preserve the new multipolar world order, with the support of the Global South.
In this context, we can analyze the most important aspects of the Chinese perspective on President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s recent political speeches in March 2026 at the Egyptian Military Academy and the Police Academy through the strategic and geopolitical alignment between the Egyptian and Chinese positions, which stems from a shared Chinese-Egyptian concern and a common desire to prevent widespread regional chaos. China sees President El-Sisi’s warnings against expanding the circle of conflict as reflecting political realism, as the outbreak of a full-scale war threatens China’s Belt and Road Initiative and its massive investments in the Suez Canal and the Middle East. Furthermore, there is a shared Egyptian-Chinese desire to protect energy security in the region. Here, Beijing appreciates El-Sisi’s focus on regional stability, as China relies on the Strait of Hormuz for a large portion of its oil imports, and any war against Iran would disrupt these supplies and drive up global prices.
In this context, relevant circles and security, military, and intelligence research and think tanks in Beijing analyzed Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi’s recent speeches in March 2026 before military elites and students at the Egyptian Military Academy and Police Academy. This analysis was conducted from the perspective of China’s multipolarity stance, which rejects the principle of American unipolarity. Chinese circles analyzed President El-Sisi’s rejection of military solutions in the region, interpreting it as indirect support for the principle of state sovereignty, which China promotes, and a rejection of Washington’s policy of regime change by force. China also believes that al-Sisi’s calls for dialogue and peaceful solutions provide Beijing with diplomatic maneuvering room to play the role of honest broker, independent of American polarization. This is known as preventive diplomacy from a Chinese military and intelligence perspective.
As for the Chinese intelligence assessment of President Sisi’s Egyptian stance on a war against Iran, it is based on an analysis by relevant circles in Beijing regarding the balance of power. Chinese intelligence recognizes that Egypt, despite its strategic alliance with the United States, is adopting a soft strategy. This strategy aims to reduce its absolute dependence on a unipolar power, as evidenced by its coordination with Beijing and Moscow on regional crises. This coincides with China’s warnings against miscalculations. China has picked up on President Sisi’s repeated warnings about miscalculations in warfare and considers them an accurate assessment of the risks that could arise from Israeli-American attacks, potentially leading to unpredictable Iranian reactions and a comprehensive regional security collapse.
Herein lies the official convergence between the Egyptian and Chinese positions regarding a potential US-Israeli war against Iran in 2026. This convergence is evident in high-level Egyptian-Chinese meetings, with both countries emphasizing the necessity of activating ceasefire agreements and respecting the territorial integrity of both Iran and other Arab states. They consider military operations a reckless adventure that threatens international peace. Beijing views Egypt and its president as a voice of reason within the Western-aligned camp, which helps to curb the escalatory tendencies of other international actors, such as Washington.
On the other hand, Beijing appreciates the cornerstones of President Sisi’s Egyptian position, namely his policy of patience, awareness, and balance. President El-Sisi has emphasized in his political speeches that awareness, patience, and balance are Egypt’s true weapons amidst these tensions and that the state that can anticipate events early will minimize its losses. This has resonated strongly with China, especially given President Sisi’s emphasis on protecting the home front. He addressed students in military academies and citizens, stressing the need to maintain national unity. He indicated that Egypt is focused on economic reform and does not wish to be drawn into peripheral issues or conflicts that do not serve its direct interests, a position that aligns with China’s own domestic stance. President El-Sisi clearly affirmed at the military academy that in a world of interests, no one fights for anyone else and that every party is driven by its own self-interest, thus necessitating caution.
Here, China’s vision for resolving the escalating conflict in the region aligns with President Sisi’s vision for resolving this conflict between the Iranian, American, and Israeli parties. This vision is based on the necessity of immediately initiating diplomatic moves and preventative efforts, along with a call for dialogue. President El-Sisi stated that Egypt is making significant and quiet efforts to reach a dialogue aimed at de-escalation and preventing a direct confrontation. Both China and President El-Sisi categorically reject the current military adventures, the price of which is being paid by everyone. This was emphasized by President El-Sisi during his visit to the Military Academy, when he said that I cannot gamble with the lives of Egyptians or the security of the state in conflicts with uncertain outcomes. This same stance is consistent with China’s cautious position regarding the repercussions of this escalation and the conflict on its interests.
With close monitoring by relevant circles in Beijing, President El-Sisi delivered several lessons and messages to students of military and security academies as part of a policy of military and security training modeled after the Chinese Communist Party’s system for preparing cadres. Among these messages was the emphasis on constant readiness, urging military and police academy students to maintain a high level of preparedness not only in military matters but also in possessing political awareness and understanding of the realities of the regional landscape to counter rumors and complex challenges. He also stressed the need to build generations capable of confronting current security and military challenges. His vision within military institutions focuses on the necessity of military education grounded in the current strategic reality to ensure a generation capable of protecting the state amidst a turbulent region.
The most prominent aspects of the shared vision between China and President El-Sisi, and its impact on the region, the Gulf, and neighboring countries, can be summarized in the following points: (China and President El-Sisi’s shared vision regarding the ongoing conflict between Iran, the United States, and Israel), which is characterized by (concern and warnings about the danger of the conflict escalating). The Chinese Foreign Ministry and President El-Sisi have repeatedly warned that the continuation of the current military confrontation between these parties will lead to widespread chaos, the consequences of which the region may pay for many years. Intelligence, military, and political circles in China, as well as President El-Sisi, reject the principle of military solutions. President El-Sisi has emphasized that wars bring nothing but destruction and that diplomacy is the only option capable of achieving sustainable stability. He has warned of the repercussions of the ongoing US-Israeli-Iranian war and its impact on the global order, indicating that failure to resolve this conflict threatens to undermine the global institutional order and erode developing countries’ confidence in international rules. China shares this same position.
Analyzing the similar stance of China and President Sisi regarding the impact of this comprehensive war between Israel, the United States, and Iran, with Chinese and Russian support to curb and stop this unjustified American-Israeli escalation of this war and its effects on Egypt, China, and the Egyptian and Chinese domestic spheres, President El-Sisi and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping emphasized in their speeches to students, researchers, and affiliates of military academies that national awareness of the importance of preserving national security is the first line of defense for the homeland. President El-Sisi explicitly warned that revolutions and unrest could set countries back hundreds of years, while building requires complete security stability. He also warned of the increasing severity of economic pressures due to the current American-Israeli-Iranian war, and explained that the crisis with Iran has serious repercussions on global energy prices and supply chains, which increases local economic burdens. President El-Sisi drew attention to the direct negative impact of regional tensions on maritime security in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, which directly affects Egypt’s national income and Chinese investments in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative.
Concerned circles in Beijing analyzed President El-Sisi’s speeches to military academy students regarding the effects of this war on the region and neighboring countries. He outlined several red lines, considering the security of the Gulf a red line. In his recent meetings with military elites and students of military academies and institutions, President El-Sisi emphasized Egypt’s categorical rejection of any aggression against neighboring Arab countries, especially the Gulf states, affirming that: the security of the Gulf is Egypt’s security. He also stressed Egypt’s continued quiet efforts to play a mediating role to facilitate dialogue aimed at de-escalating tensions between Iran and the United States and preventing the confrontation from reaching a point of no return. He warned of the repercussions of this war on the stability of neighboring countries, cautioning that its expansion could lead to waves of displacement and humanitarian and security challenges exceeding the capacity of states to cope, thus necessitating concerted action from the international community. This is being closely monitored by relevant circles in China.
Finally, think tanks and research centers in Beijing are analyzing the shared orientations of the political leaderships of President El-Sisi and Xi Jinping, especially given President El-Sisi’s directives to students of military academies and security institutions. These directives echo President Xi’s ideas during his meetings with the Chinese military elite, most notably: the importance of preparedness and competence; the directive to cultivate a generation of officers and military personnel capable of understanding the realities of the regional landscape and addressing unconventional threats; the emphasis on the principles of justice and equality in selection to build robust institutions; the call for steadfastness in the face of current challenges; the demand for perseverance and patience; and the shared affirmation that Egypt and China will overcome these crises thanks to the cohesion of their internal fronts and the strength of their military and security institutions in the face of any calls for chaos or instability.
