In typical Trump fashion, the president is leaving foreign policy analysts guessing on Venezuela. Some are convinced the military buildupoff the coast of Venezuela since late August is the dress rehearsal for what could become a full-blown regime change war. The Trump administration has downplayed these concerns, insisting that the lethal strikes conducted so far have been limited to drug cartels and are part of a wider operation against international drug smuggling. President Trump’s true intentions on Venezuela are sure to surface soon, but in the meantime ordinary Venezuelans will continue to suffer under the Maduro regime, especially as Caracas uses the prospect of conflict with the US as an excuse to crack down on citizens.
Last week, President Maduro told Venezuelans in a televised address that he had begun the “consultation process” to decide on declaring a state of emergency in the event of an attack by the “US empire.” Venezuela’s vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, posited that Maduro would be given extraordinary powers following any such declaration, including the activation of “all kinds of economic, political, and social plans” for national security reasons.
Thus far, the Venezuelan government has prepared for conflict with the US with attempts to strengthen its pro-regime militias to deter further US action. In late August, Vice President Rodríguez addressed a militia recruitment event and said that Venezuela would be the US’s “nightmare” and “calamity” should there be a military confrontation.
The rhetoric emanating from Caracas can only be bad news for the Venezuelans already suffering under Maduro’s rule. Ever since Maduro successfully rigged the 2024 Venezuelan presidential election in his favor, the regime has gone to great lengths to control opposition in the country. From imprisoning political opponents to economists, anyone who dares report the truth about the regime’s dire economic management is subject to Maduro’s damage control.
It is deeply concerning that Vice President Rodríguez and even Maduro himself are almost salivating at the prospect of using US intervention to further oppress their own people. The regime is rightly anxious of the anti-government sentiment stirring amongst a sizable number of Venezuelans, especially given the daily hardship they face. One does not have to look very hard to find countless stories of Venezuelan workers describing the difficulty of life under Maduro. 82% of the population lives in poverty, with over half in extreme poverty, according to the United Nations. To make matters worse, Statista predicts that inflation will run at over 200% in 2026.
Phil Gunson, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, recently told Latin America Reports that a declaration of emergency would mean more of the same authoritarian practices from the Maduro regime. He said that the situation in Venezuela is so dire that things could “hardly get worse” from a state of emergency crackdown. This pessimism from activists about the regime’s behavior is a damning indictment, but the prospect of conflict with the US risks emboldening Maduro. Any further encroachment into the lives of ordinary Venezuelans, especially through military authoritarianism and the seizure of property, would make an already desperate situation even more bleak. When dealing with Maduro, one should operate under the maxim ‘things can always get worse.’
Much ink will be spilled in the coming weeks debating President Trump’s strategy in Venezuela and the Maduro regime’s response. Amid this furor, we must not lose sight of the Venezuelan people who are languishing under a corrupt and illegitimate president. The Maduro regime will be sure to use the prospect of conflict with the US to project a false sense of unity outward, while cracking down further at home. For Venezuelans, the real emergency is not what Washington decides, but how long they will have to endure poverty and indignity at home.
