Background
China has sharply expanded its military activities in the Taiwan Strait, East and South China Seas, and Western Pacific, according to Taiwan’s armed forces. A new internal estimate seen by Reuters suggests Beijing’s drills cost $21 billion in 2024, a 40% jump from 2023, underscoring the scale of China’s growing military footprint.
Beijing officially reported a 1.67 trillion yuan ($233 billion) defence budget last year, but diplomats and analysts widely view that figure as under-reported. China does not release a breakdown of where its defence funds go.
What Happened
Taiwan’s military compiled a classified report this month estimating the cost of Chinese military exercises across multiple seas. The study tracked aircraft and naval missions, calculated fuel and maintenance expenses, and added salaries and repairs to reach a total of 152 billion yuan ($21.25 billion).
Key findings:
Air activity: Nearly 12,000 flights, about 37,000 hours in the air, a 30% rise from 2023.
Naval activity: More than 86,000 sailings, totalling over 2 million hours at sea , up 20%.
Regional breakdown: 34% of naval missions in the South China Sea, 28% in the East China Sea, and 14% in the Taiwan Strait.
China’s Defence Ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to Reuters’ requests for comment. Beijing has long insisted its military spending is transparent and defensive.
Why It Matters
Escalating Pressure: The rise in spending reflects Beijing’s bid to normalise military power projection around the First Island Chain, stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines.
Regional Security: Taiwan and neighbouring capitals worry about increasingly routine Chinese drills, which risk accidents or escalation.
Global Implications: Washington and regional allies see the expansion as part of Beijing’s broader strategy to challenge U.S. military presence in the Indo-Pacific.
Budgetary Scale: The estimated drill costs amount to 9% of China’s reported 2024 defence budget, but nearly a quarter of Taiwan’s entire military budget.
Stakeholder Reactions
Taiwan’s Defence Ministry told Reuters: “China’s ongoing military expansion and grey-zone provocations are severely undermining peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region.”
One Taiwanese official involved in the study said: “They are trying to normalise their military power projection and intimidation around the first island chain.”
Defence experts noted the methodology of Taiwan’s estimate is feasible but warned it includes some guesswork given the opacity of China’s budget.
What’s Next
China’s navy and air force are operating further afield, with deployments in the Indian Ocean, off Somalia, and even near Alaska, suggesting Beijing’s power projection will keep expanding.
For Taipei, the research offers critical insights to guide defence planning and resource allocation. But the rising cost and tempo of China’s drills signal that military pressure on Taiwan will intensify, leaving the region braced for further instability.
