The tension between Iran and Israel has a long, complex and multi-layered history. The geopolitical position, ideological differences and regional strategic plans of both sides make the layers of this tension. In recent days, targeted and calculated attacks by Israel intensified this tension once again, made the conflict more heated and effectively closing off all avenues for peace. Israel attacked the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was assassinated in the heart of Tehran, thereby damaging Iran’s national sovereignty, territorial integrity, and national pride. Amidst of this conflict and tension, the fundamental question is: what will be Iran’s possible response? Will Iran start a total- war? What will Iran’s retaliation against Israel be? The author outlines the following scenarios as possible responses from Iran and then identifies the most likely scenario.
1. Targeted Assassination of Israeli Leaders
One of the responses that Iran may give to Israel is to assassinate of a key Israel key figures. This approach serves as a direct form of retaliation and allows Iran to strike at the core of Israel’s leadership. The primary goal would be twofold: first, to send a strong deterrent message to Israel’s power and influence, and second, to demonstrate to the world, its allies, and its citizens that Iran has the capability to target the heart of Israel’s leadership. In other words, Iran aims to achieve two objectives with one action- seeking revenge while showcasing it’s and influence within Israel and strengthening its position among its allies. However, this option is less likely. On the one hand, Iran’s operational capacity inside Israel is limited, making such a targeted assassination logistically challenging. On the other hand, Israel, with its strong security apparatus and the support of its strategic allies, is well prepared to deal with such threats. These factors collectively reduce the likelihood of the successful implementation of this option.
2. Diplomatic and Soft Response
Another potential response from Iran to the violation of its sovereignty could be diplomatic and soft measures. Iran might portray Israel as a law-breaking and belligerent government that disregards international laws and regulations and seeks to create more tension and instability in the region. By publicly condemning Israel’s behavior as a violation of international regulations, Iran can elevate the issue from a bilateral dispute a global concern. Iran could seek to condemn Israel’s behavior and exert pressure through diplomatic means and in international platforms such as the United Nations. Additionally, Iran could pursue legal action through international courts. These measures would allow Iran to challenge Israel’s image in the international arena, and in the eyes of the world opinion, make it responsible, influence the global opinion, and ultimately strengthen its own position within the international community.
3. Intensification of Proxy Wars Against Israel
Another very likely option is to launch extensive and intense proxy wars against Israel. In this scenario, the first step would involve Iran significantly bolstering Hamas group with financial support, weaponry, intelligence, and political backing. This strategy is evident in the succession of Ismail Haniyeh by Yahya al-Sinwar, who is known for his support of escalating the conflict and advocating a military solution, and who maintains close relations with Iran. It is clear that Iran played a key role in this selection, aligning with its objective of intensifying conflicts with Israel.
In addition, Iran would maintain to support its network of proxy groups throughout the Middle East, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and various militias in Syria and Iraq. These groups typically act in Iran’s favor of Iran in most cases. In response to Israel’s recent actions and as part of its retaliation, Iran is likely to increase its support for these proxy groups and escalate the number of attacks against Israel’s interests. This could include heightened rocket attacks, cyber-attacks, or organized unrest along Israel’s borders. By using this approach, Iran aims to put pressure on Israel indirectly at relatively low cost, and complicate Israel’s security situation, and divert its military resources. This strategy aligns with Iran’s broader asymmetric warfare approach, which leverages regional alliances to counter Israel’s conventional military superiority.
4. Demonstration Missile Attacks and Military Maneuvers
Another potential response from Iran to Israel could be a large-scale but low-consequence military attacks. This high-profile attacks would be more of a show of power than an act of war and could include missile strikes, naval maneuvers in strategic waterways, or general military exercises near disputed areas, and even a shallow direct attack. The purpose of such an attack would be to demonstrate Iran’s readiness and ability to defend its interests without escalating into a full-scale conflict. This strategy aims to bolster national morale internally while and projecting power for regional and global audiences, highlighting Iran’s strategic flexibility and depth.
Conclusion
Based on the scenarios presented, it can be concluded that Iran will respond to Israel, but it is unlikely to engage in direct war. Iran is fully aware that a full-scale war would not serve its interests in the current geopolitical situation. Therefore, its strategic calculations will focus on creating a balance between the need for retaliation with the need for restraint. By doing so, Iran’s goal is to maintain its regional influence and deterrence capabilities without going towards a wider war. Iran’s response to Israel’s recent actions will probably be multifaceted, involving a combination of several options. In particular, a mix of proxy wars and large-scale, low-intensity missile attacks with minimal casualties will probably be the most manageable course of action. Large-scale low-intensity missile attacks will help restore Iran’s prestige and national pride of Iran while displaying its power without significantly escalating the conflict. Using proxy wars also allows Iran to put pressure on Israel indirectly while avoiding the risks and costs associated with direct military confrontation. Ultimately, Iran will likely seek its main revenge through proxy wars, as this approach provides a means to exert pressure without engaging in full-scale war. By resorting to proxy wars and strategic military maneuvers, Iran aims to maintain a balance between retaliation and restraint.