Taiwan’s Only Hope: Nuclear Capability

Taiwan, a wonderful island nation, has had a relationship of conflict with China since its inception. With full faith in democracy, Taiwan has grown into a well-developed society, to the surprise and irritation of China. Russia’s war with Ukraine, followed by a policy decision by the West not to directly interfere in the war, has heightened fears that China will take military action against Taiwan.

In a situation in which North Korea tests new missiles every two months to show the world that it has nuclear weapons, the world does not know if the people of North Korea have freedom, three meals a day and adequate medical facilities. North Korean President Kim Jong-un runs a brutal regime with the tacit support of China that threatens the peace of the Indo-Pacific region. There is no news from North Korea about how many people have died and how they have coped with Covid-19. It should be remembered that former U.S. President Donald Trump and his team had negotiated with North Korea for denuclearization.

Israel is a tiny country in the Gulf, a non-signatory to the NPT and CTPT. The international community knows that Israel has nuclear weapons. Are any countries going to interfere with Israel? It should be noted that all Gulf countries, beginning with Saudi Arabia, are seeking reconciliation with Israel.  

Even though there have been full-scale wars between India and Pakistan after independence in 1947 and continued action against cross-border terrorism, the possession of nuclear weapons by both countries works as a deterrent and self-restraint to both countries, so that the conflicts never get out of hand.

Let’s not forget that the world, especially the U.S. during the Cold War, looked amused when Pakistan built its nuclear weapons – with the help of China – to contain India. It should be remembered that this changed the geo-political situation in South Asia. Under these circumstances, it is despicable for the international community to be a mute spectator as imperialist China attempts to arbitrarily annex Taiwan, against international law. If China started to deploy its military, the statements of the UN or any individual country would be rubbish. It won’t serve any good purpose. It’s good to remember that, every time China’s Foreign Ministry officials – and even President Xi Jinping- say that they will use all their might to annex Taiwan if Taipei City goes for independence, they demonstrate that Beijing is well-prepared for military action against Taiwan. 

It is shocking that even the democratic country of India is silent on the Taiwan issue. Countries in the region may consider that Taiwan is not their problem. Yet, every country that hesitates to curb China’s hegemony, especially East Asian countries, will have to pay a heavy price in the future. In the late 1970s, the U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger failed to predict the course of China’s leaders and the biggest historical mistake he made was to ask Washington to give economic aid to China in return for its newfound friendship. It is absurd that the same Chinese state is presently trying to rewrite the world order with Vladimir Putin’s Russia.

International relations are contested. Yet, those who understand the behavior of the states in the international power system and still hesitate to react to the Taiwan issue, only cause more problems for the Indo-Pacific. At any cost, it is the duty of the international community to protect the status quo of democratic ‘Taiwan’. The international community should take advantage of the time available now to defend Taiwan’s status quo. Decisions made later will not yield any results. The international community should wake up now before the sound of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine prompts China to take similar military actions against Taiwan.

The recent visit of the U.S. Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan – along with her East Asian tour to meet with Taiwan’s President Tsai Ing-wen- has encouraged America’s continued stance on Taiwan. However, provoking China will not help Taiwan.

Today, the South China Sea in the Indo-Pacific region is under the shadow of war with the Taiwan issue. Meanwhile, China’s Deputy Foreign Minister Xie Feng has not only expressed his strong condemnation to the U.S. Ambassador to China Professor Nicholas Burns, but also said that the U.S. will pay a price for its mistake. It is worth recalling that during last week’s virtual meeting between the U.S. President Joe Biden and the Chinese President, Jinping, the latter observed that China will not be idle if “Taiwan provokes us.”

With Russia possessing a large number of nuclear weapons and intercontinental ballistic missile technology, the West fears that if they comes to Ukraine’s side directly, it could turn into a nuclear World War III. As a result, they are practicing self-restraint and providing covert assistance to Ukraine, so that the war has been going on for 163 days.  If the West thinks that diplomacy is only about sustaining the negotiations and not about resolution, then the United Nations has been reduced to a weak body in dealing with international issues. International law has no teeth in today’s environment. So, it can only bark.

The world must understand the pain that Ukraine is going through today. The international community may feel pain for the people of Ukraine. Yet who can share in their grief? The ‘neo-realist’ thinker Kenneth Waltz, in an article in 1981 stated, “The reasons for preventing war between the superpowers since 1945 is nuclear weapons”. Therefore, the only way to keep ‘Taiwan’ from being pushed into the situation of Ukraine is to immediately provide them with nuclear weapons technology. Realizing the grace of time, it is inevitable that the U.S. should provide nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles to Taiwan (to be positioned in Taipei City) for self-defense targeting at least three of the major cities of China including the capital Beijing. No one should have a doubt about this strategy. This will surely be the only solution available to change China’s attitude towards Taiwan and to make the Indo-Pacific region continue in peace. 

Antony Vigilious Clement
Antony Vigilious Clement
Antony Clement is a Senior Editor (Indo-Pacific), Modern Diplomacy, an online journal. He is a researcher in Indian Foreign Policy. He is currently working on two books - “The Best Teacher” and “Diplomacy in Tough Times”. His research centres on India’s diplomacy & foreign policy and extends to domestic politics, economic policy, security issues, and international security matters, including India’s relations with the US, the BRICS nations, the EU and Australia. His recent book is “Discover your talents.”