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The atomic annihilation of Hiroshima and Nagasaki: A historical reflection

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A week ago, U.S Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, posted a tweet on his account on Twitter, reflecting on the anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the devastation of nuclear weapons. In his own words: “We reaffirm that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought”. A nuclear war can never be won indeed, however nuclear weapons have been used before. Regarding the bombings on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, can that be described as a war crime, a military necessity, or just another implementation of realism, where there are no boundaries towards victory?

Importance and background of the event

On December 28, 1942, the President of the U.S, Theodore Roosevelt, authorized the “Manhattan Project”, which was created to weaponize nuclear energy. It was clear by then that WWII entered a new phase of competition and struggle, with superpowers like the U.S trying to develop the first nuclear weapons, to assert themselves as the only nation capable of developing nuclear weapons.

On April 12, 1945, President Roosevelt died at the age of 63, and Harry Truman was named the 33rd President of the USA. Now, the whole project was on his shoulders and soon a very difficult decision had to be made. To stop the war in the Pacific, President Truman authorized the use of the atomic bomb, known as “Little Boy” on the city of Hiroshima on the 6th of August 1945. Three days later a plutonium bomb was dropped on the city of Nagasaki, known as “Fat Man”. As a result, Emperor Hirohito announced on August 15, 1945, the unconditional surrender of Japan, officially ending the Second World War.

According to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons, the bomb detonated in Hiroshima had an explosive yield equal to 15.000 tons of TNT, destroying 70% of the city and causing more than 140.000 deaths. 70% of the victims in Hiroshima suffered severe burns, and most of them died on the same day due to radiation exposure. In Nagasaki, the bomb that was dropped by the U.S leveled 6.7 km2 of the city, killing more than 74.000 people, while ground temperatures reached 4.000 Celsius degrees. Five years after the explosions there were increased incidents of leukemia among the survivors, and in later years there were increased cases of different types of cancer.

Up until this day, historians argue about the use of the atomic bomb. Some argue that it was used for military reasons while other historians think it was unnecessary and was only used to intimidate the Soviet Union.

Nuclear annihilation: A terrible success

After Truman became the 33rd President of the United States, it was clear that a huge decisionwas laying on his shoulders. His country had the chance to finish one of the deadliest wars in human history but with the cost of corruption of human morality. He was in favor of the operation as he saw no alternative to ending the war against the Japanese. He later called the use of the atomic bomb, “a terrible success”.

The biggest argument in favor of the use of the bomb was the fact that this tactic would prevent further casualties from the American side. With a direct invasion of Japan, advisors near Truman expected that casualties could range from 200.000 to 1.000.000 American soldiers. In addition, the USA predicted the casualties from the Japanese side, which ranged from 100.000 to 1.000.000 depending on the duration of the invasion and the possibility of a Soviet invasion from the north.

The use of the atomic bomb was the best way to finish the war once and for all without having to deploy more military troops and continuing the war for more months. It was the fastest and easiest way to make Japan surrender. It was clear that by 1945, Japan was committed to the essence of total war, and the Japanese leaders refused to surrender. Emperor Hirohito himself, being pressured by people like Hideki Tojo, the prime minister of Japan, kept declaring to his people that they will not surrender whatsoever. Combined with the Bushido code -the way of the warrior- that many soldiers followed where they were trained to fight until death, made the plan to invade Japan more and more repulsive.

The statement from Delfin Jaranilla, a judge from the Philippines, and a member of the International Military Tribunal for the Far East, that took place on April 29, 1946, best describes the thinking of the people that were in favor of a swift end to WWII. In his own words: “If a means is justified by an end, the use of the atomic bomb was justified for it brought Japan to her knees and ended the horrible war. If the war had gone longer, without the use of the atomic bomb, how many thousands and thousands of helpless men, women, and children would have needlessly died and suffered?”

Nuclear annihilation: A terrible disaster

Although there were a lot of Truman’s advisors who believed that the use of the atomic bomb was the only way to end the war, there was strong opposition against this option. Assistant Secretary of the Navy and member of the Interim Committee on Atomic Matters, Ralph A. Bard, tried to convince President Truman that a standard naval blockade would be enough to make the Japanese surrender. He wanted the U.S not to drop the atomic bomb or at least first give a warning to the population.

The idea was that if the U.S had just warned them about the bomb they would consider surrendering. Bard submitted his resignation at about the time the Interim Committee made its recommendation to Truman on the use of the bomb which he opposed. In 1946 he received the Navy’s Distinguished Service Medal. He died on April 5th, 1975.

In addition, the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings are considered by many historians and authors as war crimes that reach the level of genocide. Historian Martin Sherwin argued that it should be considered a genocide. “The bombings were gratuitous at best and genocidal at worst”. Especially in the case of the Nagasaki bombing which came only three days after the Hiroshima bombing, many argue that it was completely unnecessary, totally inhumane, and fundamentally immoral.

The historical point of view: There was no other way

How will history judge our actions? Are we certain that specific actions from individuals will be judged accordingly? For better or worse, historians tend to disagree on historical events, and the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki are no exemption.

Some historians believe that the use of the atomic bomb was the only way to convince Japan to surrender. The militaristic and nationalistic propaganda that was promoted since the Great Depression, convinced the Japanese people to fight until the end. According to Richard B. Frank, an American military historian and the author of the book “Downfall: The End of the Imperial Japanese Empire”,  the necessity of the atomic bomb as a tool of destruction was crucial to saving thousands of American lives and millions of Japanese lives.

By 1945, the U.S military had intercepted important messages and information from the Japanese army and it was clear that Japan’s armed forces were determined to fight a final destructive battle in their homeland against the Allied invasion. This tactic was called Ketsu Go in Japanese, which can be freely translated to Operation Decisive. The idea was that American morale was fragile and could be shattered by heavy losses in the initial invasion. As a result, the American side would happily negotiate an end to the war without implementing the idea of unconditional Japanese surrender.

The historical point of view: The competition with the Soviet Union

According to plenty of revisionist historians, the use of the atomic bomb was completely unnecessary, and it was not the reason for Japan’s surrender. Instead, they point out that the entrance of the Soviet Union in the war against Japan on August 8, 1945, was the only reason Japan surrendered.

Tsuyoshi Hasegawa, a Japanese-American historian specializing in Soviet history and the relations between the Soviet Union, Japan, and the United States, agrees on the importance of the Soviet Union as a major threat to the U.S. His book, “Racing the Enemy: Stalin, Truman, and the Surrender of Japan”, is a revisionist study of the end of the Pacific War. He suggests that the only reason Japan surrendered in WWII was because of the Soviet Union, advancing from Manchuria and it had nothing to do with the use of the atomic bomb which he viewed as completely unnecessary. In one chapter of his book, he states that:

“As long as England and the United States insist upon unconditional surrender, the Japanese Empire had no alternative but to fight on with all its strength for the honor and existence of the Motherland. However, based on the available evidence, it is clear that the two atomic bombs alone were not decisive in inducing Japan to surrender. Despite their destructive power, the atomic bombs were not sufficient to change the direction of Japanese diplomacy. The Soviet invasion was. Without the Soviet entry into the war, the Japanese would have continued to fight until numerous atomic bombs, a successful allied invasion of the home islands, or continued aerial bombardments, combined with a naval blockade, rendered them incapable of doing so”. (Hasegawa 2005, p. 298).

The historical point of view: The human aspect

There are historians who focus on the humanitarian aspect of the bombings rather than if it was a military necessity or the decisive factor in Japan’s surrender. It is more important to remember that human lives were destroyed and thousands of people were affected by these bombings that directly changed the route of history.

Alex Wellerstein is a historian of science at the Stevens Institute of Technology who studies the history of nuclear weapons. In 2013 he published an article with post-bombing photographs of the two cities, condemning the scale of damage that the U.S caused in Japan and focusing more on the catastrophe rather than the reasons behind using the atomic bombs in the first place. From a short excerpt from his article we can understand his point of view that does not justify whatsoever the atomic bombings:

What is the right view to have about the bombings? An ugly, troublesome, disturbing one; right between those extremes. The atomic bomb was a weapon used to inflict tremendous human suffering. This is true whether you think its use was justified or not. If an atomic bomb were to go off over your city, the damage would be horrifying, the death toll staggering. But it’s a level of destruction that people should try to appreciate for what it is, a realistic possibility, not a clean science-fiction ending or a blow to be shrugged off”.

Alongside this point of viewing these events purely from the humanitarian perspective comes the famous argument of whether or not the U.S had warned the Japanese civilians about the atomic bombings. On the internet, anyone can find certain photos displaying B-29 aircrafts dropping leaflets which the Americans used to call LeMay leaflets, giving a warning to the Japanese civilians about the intentions of the U.S to drop atomic bombs on their country.

In one of his articles for the Washington Post, historian Gregg Herken, author of the book The Winning Weapon: The Atomic Bomb in the Cold War and Brotherhood of the Bomb, 2014, exposes myths regarding the Hiroshima and Nagasaki bombings. One of those myths is the fact that the Japanese were warned about the bombings specifically in Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Those LeMay leaflets were dropped indeed, but Herken stresses the fact that nothing was mentioned about the use of such a powerful weapon. In addition, Hiroshima and Nagasaki civilians were never warned about these attacks because the US feared that their attack would be sabotaged by the Japanese.

In this day and age, we should all take any given information with a pinch of salt, since even historical events are up for debate as to their necessity. With that being said since the U.S never warned the civilians of the two cities that were completely destroyed, should we consider this an actual crime against humanity? The decision indeed saved thousands if not millions of lives, but what happens when we need to evaluate the corruption of human morality that comes with difficult decisions like the one that President Truman had to go through?

To this day, none of the American Presidents have apologized for the event. Barack Obama was the first U.S President to set foot in the destroyed city of Hiroshima. He paid tribute to the survivors of the attack and talked about the need for a moral revolution regarding the use of nuclear power. However, he did not apologize for the use of the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

As of this point in 2022, it seems like the mindset of the U.S regarding these events is set on a military necessity mode. Without a formal apology, we will probably expect more tweets and posts from U.S officials reminding us of their own decisions that led to the destruction of two cities.

One might think that there are no easy decisions throughout history and that the hardest choices cannot be seen at first glance. The point though is, how can we learn from these events so that we will not repeat them? We might be on the verge of a nuclear detonation again and if it comes to the stage of a third world war, we will know it will be fought with nuclear weapons. However, if we reach such a stage, then most certainly, a fourth world war will be fought with sticks and stones.

Bachelor's Degree in International Relations & Political Science. Columnist focusing on Global Affairs

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East Asia

Russia and the end of North Korea’s Tong-mi bong-nam strategy

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North Korea’s decades old strategy of ‘Tong-mi bong-nam’ (Engage the United States, Block South Korea) and its rare variant ( ‘Tong-nam bong-mi’ or Engage South Korea, Block the US) of breaking the Washington-Seoul axis by alternatively cooperating with one in order to isolate the other so as to manoeuvre its way through it has seen a shift recently as Pyongyang moves closer to Russia.

Tensions have been high on the Korean Peninsula since the election of the conservative President Yoon Seok-youl, who has adopted a “Kill Chain” strategy to preemptively target the Kim regime in the face of an imminent nuclear threat. Cooperation has been restricted to calls for reunion of families across the border along with disarmament linked “audacious”  economic aid in order to denuclearise Pyongyang, which stands at the cusp of its worst economic crisis post the pandemic. However, surprisingly, North Korea has not only rejected the offer but has declared itself a nuclear state by adopting a law which rules out the possibility of denuclearisation by allowing Pyongyang to conduct preemptive strikes to protect itself. With a possible nuclear test on the cards, the Russian hand behind such bold moves cannot be overlooked.

Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine has emboldened North Korea in more ways than one: it has not only challenged the invincibility of the Western powers whom Pyongyang defines as “hostile” but has also created demands for North Korean weaponry for a sanction pressed Russia to continue the war, promising to fill Pyongyang’s coffers with much needed foreign reserves. While North Korea has denied these claims, its increased proximity with Moscow is too conspicuous to gloss over. The most significant consequence however has been a change in North Korea’s policy towards Seoul and Washington.

Efficiently using it to challenge Seoul’s participation in any peace negotiations since the Korean Armistice Agreement of 1953, the strategy of Tong-mi bong-nam was employed again in 1994 when faced with recurrent famines and massive food shortages, Pyongyang agreed to denuclearise under the Agreed Framework and eventually normalise its relationship with the US. The idea was to extract economic aid while isolating Seoul after tensions soared over the latter not sending official condolences on Kim il-Sung’s death. 

The strategy was reversed in South’s favour  when relations with Washington soured after it imposed a fresh series of sanctions against Pyongyang’s nuclear proliferation programme in April 1998 and North Korea positively responded to Kim Dae-Jung’s Sunshine Policy which resulted in the historic June 15 summit of 2000, where the  the leaders of the two Koreas met for the first time post the division in 1945. President Bush’s “Axis of Evil” comment further worsened US-North Korean ties which led Pyongyang to not only break off contacts with both the US and South Korea but also withdraw from the NPT in January 2003. Although South Korean efforts and North Korea’s mounting economic crisis  succeeded in bringing Pyongyang to the Six Party Talks where Seoul argued that North’s security concerns be taken into account before pushing for denuclearisation, Washington’s rigid stance that North Korea denuclearises first  resulted in a stalemate. Pyongyang conducted its first nuclear test in 2006 inviting more stringent sanctions and eventually withdrew from the Six Party talks in 2009. After successive conservative governments which favoured a hard stance towards North Korea virtually stalled negotiations, President Moon Jae-in’s friendly approach resulted in a major breakthrough in Inter-Korean relations in the form of the 2018 Panmunjom Declaration which called for phased disarmament, at a time when Pyongyang’s economy was at its lowest in the past two decades and tensions with the Trump administration soared high. The breakdown of the 2019 Hanoi Summit between North Korea and the US finally ended cooperation.

The above cases illustrate how efficiently North Korea has used Tong-mi bong-nam as a manoeuvring tool where negotiations were undertaken only during times of economic crisis while nuclear proliferation continued to remain a priority to achieve  reunification of the peninsula in a way favourable to Pyongyang. Moreover, Kim Jong-un has learnt from the case of Gadaffi’s Libya that engaging the West in denuclearisation would only provide limited respite while possession of nuclear weapons not only creates a strong deterrence against attacks by much powerful adversaries but also fuels nuclear nationalism thus reproducing regime legitimacy even at its weakest moments. Hence, he has nipped all chances of achieving complete denuclearisation in the bud. While China has so far played a major role in moderating Pyongyang’s aggression by prioritising regional stability considering its own geopolitical and economic interests over countering the US; Russia’s bold violation of UNSC sanctions by not only trading with Pyongyang but also demonstrating active interest in  employing North Korean workers and labelling the bilateral relationship as being of “mutual interest” speaks volumes about the greater latitude it is willing to provide its anti-American ally in pressing forward with its agenda.

Though Tong-mi bong-nam has served North Korea’s interests by aiding it in extracting economic benefits while dodging commitments over complete denuclearisation, it has simultaneously acted as the only window for Seoul and Washington to negotiate with Pyongyang. As its raison d’être, namely North’s economic and diplomatic isolation, wanes with Moscow’s support; the hope for denuclearisation might be lost forever specifically as the US and South Korea continue to  seek “overwhelming” military response to resolve the crisis which might lead to unimaginably dangerous consequences. The need of the hour is to multilaterally engage with both Russia and North Korea on disarmament and lift sanctions in a phased manner while ensuring that the two abide by their commitments.

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The SCO seeks for a new role in the post-Ukrainian crisis world

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During the Samarkand summit which was held during September 15-16, the Council of Heads of State of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) signed the landmark Samarkand Declaration, advanced Iran’s accession, start the process for Belarus to become a full member, while approving Bahrain, Maldives, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Myanmar as dialogue partners. Additionally, the SCO issued groundbreaking statements and documents, marking the first time that member states have jointly spoken out on emerging issues, such as climate change, supply chain security and international energy security. All of these progresses verify that the SCO has come of the age over the past two decades. There is no question that the SCO is now the largest regional cooperation organization in the world. Over half of the world’s population lives in its member states, accounting for about 25% of the global GDP—and those states have a powerful intellectual and technological potential and a considerable part of the global natural resources.

As one of the two leading drivers of the SCO, Russia has played the tremendous role in its development and solidarity of all member states in principle and in reality as well. This year, despite the Ukrainian war drags on for over 200 days, Russia still acted influentially to promote Iran’s “earliest possible accession” to the SCO legally and Belarus’s beginning the accession process. As President Putin said during the summit, “There are many more countries that seek membership in or association with the SCO. All are welcomed because the SCO is a “non-bloc association and rather working with the whole world.” It is also true that in a very complicated international situation, the SCO is not “marking time,” but rather continuing to develop and build its role in addressing international and regional issues—maintaining peace and stability “throughout the vast Eurasian space.”

Echoing the coming changes in global politics and the economy which are about to undergo fundamental and irreversible changes, it is obvious that there are new “centers of power” emerging, and the interaction among them is inclusively based on universally recognized principles of the rule of international law and the UN Charter, namely, equal and indivisible security and respect for each other’s sovereignty, national values and interests. Given this, this article aims to argue what role the SCO would be able to play in the next twenty years?

The SCO holds tremendous potential for the future of international community and particularly in the fields of ensuring energy security and food security. Accordingly, the latest joint statement proposes to avoid excessive fluctuations in the prices of international bulk commodities in the energy sector, ensure the safety and stability of international food and energy resources’ transportation channels, and to smooth the international production and supply chain. To insure these ends, the statement also underlines adherence to the principle of technology neutrality as it is the key to encourage the research and application of various clean and low-carbon energy technologies. Given this, the Samarkand summit is a milestone both in the development of the SCO and building of a SCO community with shared future. Accordingly, the SCO will adhere to the principle of not targeting third parties as the Final Declaration states that the SCO seeks to ensure peace, security and stability. In reality, SCO members intend to jointly further develop cooperation in politics and security, trade, economy, finance and investments, cultural and humanitarian relations “in order to build a peaceful, safe, prosperous and environmentally friendly planet Earth.”

In the overall terms, China has played the significant role in joint promoting of the SCO as Russia admitted that in unison with the Chinese side, the existence of a unipolar world is impossible. Moscow and Beijing have agreed that it’s an impossible situation when the wealthy West is claiming the right to invent rules in economy, in politics and the right to impose its will on other countries. The foundation of the unipolar system has started to seriously creak and wobble. A new reality is emerging. Now it is more apparent that the obsolete unipolar model is being superseded by a new world order based on the fundamental principles of justice, equality, and the recognition of the right of each nation and state to its sovereign path of development. Put it more precisely, strong political and economic centers acting as a driving force of this irreversible process are being shaped in the Asia Pacific region.

Echoing the consensus among the SCO member states and their partners in the Eurasian domain, President Xi spoke at the summit that the successful experience of the SCO has been based on political trust, win-win cooperation, equality between nations, openness and inclusiveness, and equity and justice. They are not only the source of strength for the development of the SCO but also the fundamental guide that must be followed strictly in the years to come. Given that under the volatile world, the SCO, as an important constructive force in international and regional affairs, should keep itself well-positioned in the face of changing international dynamics, constantly enhance strategic independence, consolidate and deepen solidarity and cooperation, and build a closer SCO community with a shared future.

More specifically, China has not only presented the Global Development Initiative and the Global Security Initiative, but also carried out the initiatives with real actions. In addition, the SCO greets the new round of the largest expansion of the SCO membership has consolidated its status and influence as the most populous regional cooperation organization with the vastest territory in the world. The expansion fully demonstrates that the SCO is not a closed and exclusive “small clique” but an open, inclusive “big family”. As a new type of international organization comprising 26 countries, the SCO is increasingly showing strong vitality and bright prospects for development including that it will inject new impetus into peace and prosperity in Eurasia and beyond and play an exemplary role in building a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.

In sum, the SCO has gained greater significance with the outbreak of hostilities in Ukraine, where an economically weaker Russia is turning to East in general and China in particular as Beijing and Moscow vow to be a partner with no limits and leading coordination over the SCO. In addition, the comprehensive strategic partnership of China and Russia covers a bilateral agenda, multilateral trade and economic cooperation and shared security concerns of all concerned. In the face of outrageous Western sanctions, the SCO demonstrates stability, continues to develop progressively, and gains momentum. China is sure to play the constructive role of promoting their business to the global level, including strengthening the basis of economic cooperation among SCO member states, allowing the launch of free economic zones, and implementing large-scale infrastructure projects globally.

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Factionalism in the Chinese Communist Party: From Mao to Now

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With the crucial 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) set to commence on October 16, here’s a look at the different factions that have historically existed within the Party, otherwise considered a highly centralised and monolithic organisation.

Democratic Centralism

Described by Lenin as “freedom of discussion, unity of action”, Democratic Centralism is a Marxist-Leninist theoretical concept which attempts to strike a balance between inner Party democracy and organisational unity as an assurance that decisions could be efficiently made without stifling ideological struggles within the Party which emerge in the form of dissent. It was first specifically adopted as the organising principle of a Marxist party in the Soviet Union by both Bolshevik and Menshevik factions of the Russian Social Democratic Labour Party (RSDLP)  at their separate conferences in 1905 and was unanimously adopted at the Party Unity Congress in 1906. Initially seen to be compatible with the existence of factions, a more rigid idea of Democratic Centralism was adopted at the 10th Party Congress in 1921 when all factions were outlawed in the name of Party unity. While the intention was not to wipe out the democratic discourse altogether, ‘monolithic unity’ vertically imposed by the late 1920s supplanted all free debate.

The Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU) at its 17th Congress in 1934  defined the four cardinal points of Democratic Centralism as follows:

election of all leading bodies of the Party; their periodic accountability to their respective organisations; strict party discipline &  the subordination of the minority to the majority and decisions of higher bodies to be absolutely binding on lower bodies and on party members.

 In other words, free debate and discussion would be allowed to exist within the ranks of the Party till a decision is taken by the higher body after which it must be faithfully followed and implemented by all lower ranks in the name of Party discipline  without any collective attempts to block the decision. Factionalism thus, came to be seen as a serious offense of sabotaging Party unity. The Third Communist International (1919-43) called for  Democratic Centralism to be strictly implemented by all fellow Communist parties across the world which continued even after its dissolution in 1943.

The Chinese Communist Party, through the  slogan ‘Centralism based on Democracy and Democracy Under Centralist Guidance’ (《民主基础上的集中,集中知道下的民主》), describes its role as focused on the inclusion of popular opinion which is considered  extremely important not just for the successful implementation of its policies but also as the raison d’être of its rule however concurrently, it considers them too vague to be implemented as they exist. The CCP thus sees itself as the central sieve through which mass opinions would be filtered off their vagueness and effective policies could be formulated as it is considered to be in best possession of both the knowledge of Marxism-Leninism and interests of the masses. Party cadres would go to the masses and raise their demands at the Party meetings followed by a debate, also known as the Mass Line approach. Once the decision is taken, there would be no further discussion and the cadres would faithfully implement the policies among the populace with iron discipline.

After a brief period of decentralisation post the 1978 Reform and Opening up, Centralism was reintroduced following the Tiananmen Square Movement of 1989 and more so after the fall of the USSR in 1991 in order to avert a possible legitimacy crisis. Since then streams of Centralism and Democracy have alternatively dominated leadership views. In his speech at the 17th Party Congress, Hu Jintao emphasised on the need to strengthen intra Party democracy as a part of Democratic Centralism. In contrast, Xi Jinping in 2016 emphasised on the need to integrate centralisation on a democratic basis while urging the members to display “pure and utmost” loyalty to the Party.

Guanxi (关系)

Though Articles 3(5) and  10 of the CCP Constitution  prohibit factionalism within the Party in the name of Democratic Centralism, interest groups nevertheless exist through informal networks based on  personal ties called Guanxi (关系). Guanxi has its roots in the Confucian tradition which emphasises on the feeling of belongingness among members of a family or an organisation. Such a  nexus functions in a reciprocal way where the followers look for career security and advancement under the protection of a senior leader who ensures their interests are served in the upper rungs in exchange for their support, for instance, Hu Jintao was known to have led a group of his comrades from his Communist Youth League (CYL) days  called Tuanpai (团派) in his entourage. While in itself testifying the presence of factionalism, this relationship often results in emergence of factions due to its unstable nature. All chosen successors to the General Secretary in the Party’s history have been purged by their own patrons (Mao and Deng) with the sole exception of Deng Xiaoping’s protégé, Jiang Zemin. Inconsistent leadership decision making, with opinions swinging between “Left adventurism” and “Right opportunism” under Mao and “Emancipation of Mind” and “Socialist Spiritual Civilisation” under Deng too has given rise to interest groups within the Party.

Other features of China’s political system which give rise to factionalism include  power entrusted to individual leaders in a hierarchical context; the monopoly of the Communist Party over all legal channels of expression of diverse interests; absence of a formal structure of decision making and interference of the military in politics.

Factions at a glance

The origins of Guanxi networks can be traced back to Shantou (山头)or “mountain top” alliances which date back to the Party’s early days. Facing a hostile Nationalist Party (国民党) and Japanese forces, the CCP was nurtured in independent and isolated rural basecamps which were often located in rugged hilly terrain. Thus, each Shantou became a locus of its leader’s power.  The hostile and dangerous conditions necessitated a close bond between leaders and their followers which fragmented member’s loyalty towards the CCP as a Party as the primary allegiance was paid to the leader and not to the organisation.

Though Mao in his On Contradiction (1937) defined intra Party differences and discussions as a symbol of its vitality and liveliness, he was very strict about expression of dissent outside the Party apparatus which was seen as an attempt to break away from the Party and resulted almost always in purges. Even as Mao successfully established his line of thought as the single ideological core of the Party during the Yenan Rectification Campaign of 1942, ground realities built conditions for the existence of factions which continued as external channels of communication among political associates, outlets of their diverse interests and command system of their forces. Informal Factionalism continued to drive the Party’s inner politics even after the victory in the Civil War in 1949. While Mao could establish himself as the Chairman, his sole legitimacy to rule still faced challenges since all his associates had comparable experience and contribution to enlist. As a result, though working under Mao, leaders such as Zhou Enlai and Peng Dehuai continued to remain influential in a system where they were not expected to do so. Cautious of not upsetting Mao,these leaders often collaborated amongst themselves to weather any crisis which Mao read as a threat to his own power and hence, he launched the Cultural Revolution (1966-1976) as an anti-organisation movement so as to tie all strands of loyalty to himself and not the Party where other leaders still exercised influence.

Interestingly, a penchant for a similar policy did not always translate into unity among members, the classic example being the fallout between Liu Shaoqi and Mao Zedong who did not just share policy preferences on most issues but had also joined the Party at the same time and worked together. Similarly, both Lin Biao and the Gang of Four (四人帮) were on the same page in the trajectory of the revolution but it was the power struggle amongst them which ultimately led to Lin’s fall. During Deng’s regime, Chen Yun and Peng Zhen’s shared conservativeness did not prevent Chen from blocking Peng’s path to the Politburo Standing Committee. Both Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were reform minded but Zhao held his silence when Hu was ousted. Similarly, it was on the basis of personal networks that Deng Xiaoping and Chen Yun remained the most powerful leaders throughout their lives without holding any official position. 

The economic reforms of the post Mao period further split internal unity into those who continued to stick with the Maoist line, demanding strict obedience to the socialist model of development and those who believed in inching closer to an open, market oriented economy. Economic interests thus play a major role in guiding factionalism, with the emergence of a ‘Petroleum faction’ within the CCP of those associated with the crude oil industry being a noticeable example.

Common political origins have also formed a ground for development of factions. Like Hu’s Tuanpai, Jiang Zemin was known to promote those who had worked for him previously in the Shanghai administration which led to the rise of a “Shanghai Clique” when he ascended the top position. Xi is similarly known to be leading a  “Fujian Clique” as his ascension to power was soon followed by the promotion of his former associates Wang Xiaohong and Deng Weiping to senior positions. He has also promoted his protégés from his home province of Shaanxi. Xi is not only known to secure the interests of “Princelings” (太子党 or children of high ranking Communist leaders as himself) but to also further promote a “Tsinghua Faction” of his alma mater which is known to have existed since 2008 when 1 of the 7 members of the Politburo Standing Committee and 3 of the 25 members of the Politburo were alumni of the prestigious Tsinghua University. Xi Jinping has also actively promoted leaders such as Ma Xingrui and Zhang Qingwei from the Defense-Aerospace industry (军工航天系) to top civilian positions. Perhaps the starkest episode of factionalism within the CCP was the fall of Bo Xilai, Xi’s contender to the position of the General Secretary in 2012, which not just revealed the fault lines within the Party but also brought into question the fragmented loyalty of the military as many senior PLA officers closely associated with Bo such as Zhou Yongkang were found to have actively aided him in securing the most coveted position and were later tried and arrested for charges of corruption and abuse of power.

With speculations high that Xi is likely to evade the “seven up, eight down” (七上,八下) rule which restricts reappointments of senior leaders above the age of 68 and  the retirement of Li Keqiang as the Premier, groups such as the CYL faction are likely to be further marginalised while the prominence of those close to Xi Jinping is bound to prevail at the upcoming Party Congress which might result in the likely promotion of leaders like Chen Min’er and Ding Xuexiang. 

Factionalism within the CCP does not just stand as the testimony of the dynamics in Chinese politics but also provides a window into the otherwise opaque world of its functioning.

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Amid mounting health emergencies globally – such as the COVID-19 pandemic, climate-related crises, and the war in Ukraine – the...

South Asia8 hours ago

Bright future for Pakistan-Iran relations

One of the oldest civilizations, the Islamic Republic of Iran, is situated in Western Asia, bordering Iraq and Turkey to...

Africa10 hours ago

Five years of violence in northern Mozambique has forced nearly a million to flee

Nearly one million people have fled extreme violence perpetrated by non-State armed groups in northern Mozambique over the past five...

Reports11 hours ago

Ten years of Afghan economic growth, reversed in just 12 months

A year on from the Taliban takeover in Kabul, Afghanistan is gripped by “cascading crises”, including a crippled economy that...

Religion14 hours ago

Betting on the wrong horse: The battle to define moderate Islam

Proponents of a moderate Islam that embraces tolerance, diversity, and pluralism may be betting on the wrong horse by supporting...

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