Idlib is the last province occupied by the armed and terrorist groups in Syria, therefore the battle of liberating it from the militants is the most serious battles that took place in Syria since the beginning of the war, and the result of this battle will be the key variable in the equations of international and regional actors, and will reshape the future of Syria and the region as a whole.
Since May31-2018, Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad said to Russia Today channel “We always say that we will liberate every part of Syria and therefore it is impossible to deliberately leave any area on Syrian soil outside our control as a government “, Pointing to the terrorists occupation in Idlib.
And during his speech at the Russian-Turkish-Iranian summit held in Tehran last Friday, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that the legitimate Syrian government has the right to regain control on all its lands Including the province of Idlib and the rest of the country, and the remaining extremist groups in Idlib carry out attacks using aircraft and bombing which could not be ignored.
Russian-Syrian administration has taken several operational steps to minimize the risks of the military operation, and ensure a safe exit for the largest number of people from the city, including the gunmen who want to give up their weapons as well as their families, through national reconciliation processes, taking advantage of the general amnesty issued by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad last month.
For Turkey, Idlib is an area of Turkish influence, for that were the attempts of Turkish President during the Tehran summit to prevent the Russian-Syrian forces from taking military action to liberate the province, and during the press conference that followed the summit, Erdogan expressed Ankara’s concerns about the emergence of other problems that might result from solving the problem of terrorism in Idlib through military action, he said through several tweets on Friday night, that Turkey will not stand by in the case of the killing of thousands of civilians under the pretext of fighting terrorism in Idlib.
The Turkish officials statements and the turkey military reinforcements in 12 monitoring sites Turkey has in the province, still do not strengthen the argument that Turkey will prevent any military action by the Syrian army and Russian forces in Idlib, and despite of NATO’s base on Turkish territory, the achievements in the field and the issue of border control to prevent the entry of militants into Turkey is a very complicated task for Turkey, imposed by the need to reach a consensus with the Syrian government that located on the other side of the border, this consensus which is likely been outlined in the Tehran summit, determines the role to be played by Turkish army to ensure turkey national security, although the stability of the Turkish position – as guarantor in the path of Astana- is difficult to be predicted in the light of Turkey’s obligations towards the United States, the Gulf States and armed groups that it supported from the beginning, taking into account the issue of “Kurds” as a key variable in the Turkish approach to resolve the crisis in Syria,.
Despite the European threats to undertake military action against Syrian army in the case of using the chemicals in Idlib, The last decision to carry out a military attack against Damascus is unpredictable away from the US position which is still within the framework of non-binding media statements., and according to the senator in the US Congress “Richard Blake” – after his meeting with President Bashar al-Assad last Thursday – US position is governed by the disagreement between the US President Donald Trump vision and his inclination to withdraw from Syria, and the vision of the war officers surrounding him such as “Nicky Hailey” and “John Bolton”, at the same time ignoring the data – provided by the Russian Defense Ministry on a meeting hold on 7th of September, between the White Helmets and the terrorist groups to prepare for a chemical attack- by the US news networks keeps the door opened to use the military intervention in Syria to influence the US elections results on next November.
Finally, the date of launching the military action by the Syrian-Russian forces is determined by the time taken to deal with the mentioned complexities, and all actors will just play the roles imposed on them by the Russian-American consensus, this controversy is confirmed by CNN’s claims on Saturday that Moscow informed Washington of the possibility of military strikes by Russian and Syrian forces on the areas Where the US forces protect the militants, and Washington’s response by warning Moscow from threatening the US military bases in Syria.
Although the possibility of Russian-American confrontation is likely to remain in the light of the US military reinforcements, and its use of the banned phosphorus bombs in Deir al-Zour on Saturday, the UN envoy statements about the need to eliminate 10,000 terrorist in Idlib, can be understood as a confirmation of the international recognition of the necessity of Russia-Syria military action in the province, which may lead for negotiations about Idle band what is after Idlib between the two super powers, including the Syrian Kurdish Democratic Forces(the last armed opposition group in Syria), and even the future of US presence in the Syrian northeast.