While the world remains preoccupied with preparations for the midterm elections in the United States, the conflict in Ukraine, the war surrounding Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the partial disruption of maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, the situation in South Asia and the Middle East remains tense. Conflicts in South Asia and the Middle East continue unabated. The global situation remains tense. Global military expenditure reached a record high of $2.887 trillion in 2025, marking the 11th consecutive year of growth according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The conflicts in Ukraine and surrounding Iran are far from being resolved. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the partial closure of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait further complicate the situation in the global economy and energy trade. Less prominent in the public eye, but no less acute, are the unresolved conflicts between Pakistan and India and between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
On the eve of these developments, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “if the parties concerned are interested, we are ready to provide them with the necessary assistance. They are aware of this.” The statement referred to the ongoing, low-intensity yet highly bloody and acute conflict between Islamabad and Kabul.
Russia has recently begun providing military-technical support to Kabul. Moscow noted that the relevant intergovernmental agreement was signed in May 2026. The document establishes a general framework and is aimed at helping strengthen Afghanistan’s defense and counterterrorism capabilities. It was also noted that Russia would consistently expand its partnership with Kabul in the areas of counterterrorism and counter-narcotics, as well as in the defense sector.
On October 1, Pakistan once again launched a series of airstrikes against Afghan territory. On October 11, the situation repeated itself. Escalations also occurred along the border in February and during the summer of 2026, when the two sides exchanged strikes against each other’s positions.
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First, the Pakistani military seeks to maintain control and dominant influence over the Taliban leaders. It is well known that it was the Pakistani military that played a key role in the emergence of the radical Islamist movement of Pashtuns, graduates of Pakistani madrassas, after the end of the Soviet war in Afghanistan. In 1996, the Taliban won the Afghan civil war and established a new regime—the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. However, the activity of various terrorist groups on Afghan territory, including al-Qaeda militants, led to the rapid overthrow of the regime. After the monstrous terrorist attacks in September 2001, the United States of America launched a military operation against the Taliban and overthrew the Emirate regime. For over twenty years, the Taliban were underground and waged a sabotage war against American and NATO troops. The Pakistani military provided some support in this fight, providing the country’s territory as a refuge for radical Islamist leaders. After the withdrawal of the American forces, which looked more like a flight, and the capture of Kabul by the Taliban, the situation began to change. The Taliban reincarnated the Islamic Emirate and became the sole authority in Afghanistan. Today, the Taliban no longer needs the Pakistani military. Their dependence has significantly decreased, which Islamabad does not like.
Secondly, the territory of Afghanistan is still used by various radical groups as a haven. TTP—the Pakistani wing of the Taliban, consisting of Pashtuns from the western Pakistani provinces—is waging a sabotage and terrorist war against Islamabad. At the same time, this radical organization uses Afghan territory as its base. The unrecognized Afghan government, consisting of the Taliban, denies this. Pakistani officials, in turn, are convinced of the presence of the TTP in Afghanistan. In addition to the Pakistani wing of the Taliban, other radical Islamist organizations fight against Pakistan, for example, Baloch radical groups.
Thus, unfortunately, a compromise solution is not to be expected for the time being. The parties remain extremely far from reconciliation and the achievement of compromise. On the contrary, it is evident that they are intensifying pressure on each other and seeking to strengthen their defensive positions. It is worth noting that there is a high probability that the parties are preparing for full-scale hostilities. Such a scenario cannot be ruled out.
Another conflict in the region is associated with longstanding historical tensions between India and Pakistan. India is among the top five countries in the world in terms of military expenditure, spending more than 86 billion dollars in 2024, while Pakistan’s figure stands at approximately 10 billion dollars. Moreover, India continues to increase its military expenditure, whereas Pakistan’s fell by 5% in 2024. India and Pakistan have fought three wars: in 1947–1948, 1965, and 1971. All these conflicts ended in victories for Delhi. India tested a nuclear weapon in 1974 in an operation called “Smiling Buddha.” Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons in 1998. Under Narendra Modi’s leadership, and given its growing capabilities, India strives to play a global role and aspires to great-power status. Pakistan is a power of an entirely different scale. Islamabad, however, possesses substantial and highly professional armed forces, as well as a nuclear arsenal.
However, nuclear weapons have not stopped the conflict between the two neighboring countries. But it is precisely they that have so far prevented a major war from breaking out in the region. Thus, it is possible to predict with a high degree of probability the results of any large-scale conflict between the two countries. At the same time, if the presence of nuclear weapons and different levels of economic development and military potential reduce the possibility of a large-scale conflict, tension on the border is quite possible and even inevitable.
On May 7, India launched a military operation called Operation Sindoor against, as Delhi said, “terrorist infrastructure” in Pakistan in response to the attack. Pakistan responded by striking targets in India and claims to have shot down several Indian fighter jets. On April 22, Lashkar-e-Taiba terrorists killed 26 Hindu tourists in the town of Pahalgam, in the Indian-administered region of Jammu and Kashmir. India called its military operation Operation Sindoor, a word referring to the red powder that married Hindu women traditionally apply to their faces. The name refers to the women who were left widowed after the Pahalgam attack.
Thus, while the world’s attention remains focused on the conflicts surrounding Ukraine and Iran, an extremely dangerous, albeit less prominent, potential crisis continues to unfold in South Asia.
