US and South Korean officials are increasingly doubtful that President Donald Trump will meet North Korean leader Kim Jong Un before the end of the year, as Pyongyang has yet to respond to Washington’s outreach and opportunities for a summit in November are narrowing.
Trump has expressed interest in restarting diplomacy with North Korea, but Pyongyang has shown little enthusiasm for negotiations aimed at curbing its nuclear weapons programme. Five people familiar with the situation said there had been little progress towards arranging a meeting ahead of regional summits in China and the Philippines next month.
The uncertainty marks a setback for hopes of renewed high-level engagement between Washington and Pyongyang, whose previous diplomatic efforts failed to produce a lasting agreement on denuclearisation.
Why Is a Trump-Kim Summit Becoming Less Likely?
Trump said in August that he planned to meet Kim later this year and indicated that the North Korean leader had responded to his outreach. South Korea’s intelligence agency subsequently told lawmakers that there was a 50% chance of a meeting on the sidelines of the November 18-19 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, China.
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However, Trump played down the prospects on Monday, saying he was unsure whether either side was seeking a meeting.
“I get along with him very well, and I’m not sure that anybody’s asking for a meeting,” Trump told reporters at the White House.
South Korean officials have also reported little progress. Seoul’s ambassador to Washington, Kang Kyung-wha, said last week that no concrete advances had been made towards arranging a summit.
South Korea’s foreign ministry said the government would continue diplomatic efforts in close coordination with Washington to facilitate talks between the United States and North Korea as soon as possible, although it acknowledged that the timing remained uncertain.
A White House official reiterated that Trump remained willing to speak with Kim without preconditions, but confirmed that no meeting had been scheduled.
What Does North Korea Want From Washington?
Pyongyang’s reluctance to engage suggests that a renewed summit may require more than Trump’s personal interest in meeting Kim.
North Korean state media has indicated that the country would impose tough conditions on a bilateral meeting, potentially including sanctions relief. Kim’s sister has described the relationship between the two leaders positively, but that apparent personal rapport has not translated into concrete diplomatic progress.
Ankit Panda, a senior fellow in the Nuclear Policy Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, estimated that the likelihood of a meeting at the APEC summit was below 10%.
Panda argued that North Korea might be seeking a significant public gesture from Washington before agreeing to renewed engagement. He said the recent US decision to scale back military exercises with South Korea had not been sufficient.
The disagreement reflects a broader challenge in US-North Korean relations: Washington has sought to limit Pyongyang’s nuclear ambitions, while North Korea has pursued its weapons programme and demanded changes to the conditions under which negotiations take place.
Can China Help Revive Negotiations?
China could play an important role in facilitating renewed dialogue because of its close ties with North Korea. Washington has periodically sought Beijing’s assistance in bringing Pyongyang back to the negotiating table.
The upcoming APEC summit could provide an opportunity for diplomatic discussions, particularly as Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are expected to continue their engagement there. However, improved relations between Washington and Beijing have not yet produced a breakthrough with Pyongyang.
A summit could still be arranged at short notice. US Ambassador to South Korea Michelle Steel said on Wednesday that any meeting might be announced only a day or two beforehand if the necessary arrangements were reached.
That possibility means the diplomatic window has not necessarily closed, although the absence of concrete preparations makes a meeting increasingly difficult to anticipate.
What Is at Stake for Regional Security?
The uncertainty comes as the Korean Peninsula remains divided under an armistice that ended active fighting in the 1950-1953 Korean War without a formal peace treaty.
The United States maintains approximately 28,500 troops in South Korea as part of its defence commitment to Seoul. North Korea, meanwhile, continues to develop nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. South Korean officials have cited estimates suggesting that Pyongyang possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads.
Trump met Kim three times during his first presidential term, in 2018 and 2019. Those meetings were historic, but they failed to produce a lasting agreement on denuclearisation or resolve the fundamental disagreements between the two countries.
A renewed summit could reopen channels of communication and create opportunities to address nuclear risks. However, the previous negotiations demonstrate that personal diplomacy alone may not be enough to secure substantive concessions.
For now, the prospects of a meeting remain uncertain. Unless Pyongyang responds to Washington’s outreach or signals a willingness to compromise, the chances of a Trump-Kim summit before the end of the year are likely to remain limited.
With information from Reuters.
