The Pacific Islands are preparing to take centre stage in global climate diplomacy, but a high-profile pre-COP meeting in Tuvalu and Fiji is facing an awkward problem: many of the world’s major leaders are staying away.
Australia and its Pacific partners had hoped the October 5–8 gathering would become a defining moment ahead of COP31, putting vulnerable island states at the centre of international climate discussions. Instead, the limited participation of leaders from outside the Pacific has raised questions about how seriously major powers are treating the region’s climate concerns.
The pre-COP meeting was designed to do more than prepare the ground for negotiations in Turkey in November. Australia has sought to give Pacific Island countries a more prominent role in the process after failing to secure the right to host COP31 itself. Turkey ultimately won the hosting bid, while Australia took responsibility for leading negotiations and promised to make the Pacific a central part of the conference.
The political significance of the gathering is therefore considerable. For Pacific governments, climate change is not simply an environmental issue. Rising sea levels, increasingly severe weather and threats to food, water and infrastructure are directly connected to national security and long-term survival.
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Yet only five leaders from outside the Pacific bloc have so far been confirmed for the leaders’ segment: those of Antigua and Barbuda, Cabo Verde, Thailand, the Maldives and Timor-Leste.
Fiji says around 30 representatives from countries and international institutions will attend the leaders’ segment, making it the first pre-COP to include presidents or prime ministers. But for Pacific governments that have spent years demanding greater international attention, the absence of more major leaders is difficult to ignore.
Vanuatu’s Climate Minister Ralph Regenvanu described the turnout as disappointing, arguing that it reflected the relatively low priority given to an issue that Pacific countries consider fundamental to their future.
Palau President Surangel Whipps Jr. similarly argued that even limited participation matters, but called on countries that describe themselves as Pacific partners to demonstrate that commitment through action.
Why Tuvalu Matters
Holding part of the meeting in Tuvalu was intended to make the consequences of climate change impossible to ignore.
The country is home to roughly 10,000 people across a collection of low-lying atolls that face serious exposure to rising sea levels and extreme weather. During their visit, participating leaders are expected to travel by canoe, visit reclaimed land designed to withstand rising seas and see solar projects intended to reduce dependence on diesel.
The symbolism is deliberate.
Rather than discussing climate vulnerability inside conference halls, Pacific governments want international leaders to see what climate change means on the ground. For countries whose territory is only marginally above sea level, the 1.5°C temperature goal is not an abstract diplomatic target.
Pacific governments are also pushing for stronger protection of oceans and greater access to climate finance. One important priority is the Pacific Resilience Facility, which is intended to support locally driven projects aimed at strengthening communities and economies against climate impacts.
The financial question is particularly important. Vulnerable states have repeatedly argued that international climate commitments mean little without predictable funding that allows them to adapt to changing conditions.
The pressure is increasing as global temperatures continue to approach and potentially exceed the 1.5°C threshold that countries agreed to pursue under the Paris Agreement.
Australia’s Climate Diplomacy Dilemma
For Canberra, however, the meeting carries a second layer of significance.
Australia is the largest provider of aid to the Pacific, giving it substantial diplomatic influence across the region. At the same time, it remains one of the world’s major fossil fuel exporters, shipping large quantities of coal and liquefied natural gas to international markets.
That creates an inherent tension in Australia’s Pacific strategy.
Canberra is presenting itself as a leading partner of vulnerable island states while continuing to support a fossil fuel sector that Pacific governments and climate campaigners argue contributes to the problem they are trying to address.
Australia’s government says the pre-COP meeting will elevate Pacific leadership and advance the region’s climate priorities. But the country’s broader energy policy means its climate diplomacy is likely to remain under scrutiny.
Some Pacific leaders appear willing to accept this contradiction as part of the region’s broader strategic calculations. Palau’s Whipps, for example, has argued that if fossil fuel revenues are going to be generated, there is value in those benefits accruing to Australia rather than countries he views as less committed to supporting vulnerable states and the green transition.
But the argument also highlights the difficult balance Australia is trying to maintain: remaining an important economic and energy actor while convincing Pacific countries that it is a credible climate partner.
Climate Diplomacy and the China Factor
The Pacific is no longer viewed solely through the lens of development assistance and environmental vulnerability. It has become an increasingly important arena of strategic competition.
China has expanded its diplomatic, economic and security engagement across the Pacific over the past decade, while Australia, the United States and other partners have sought to strengthen their own relationships with island states.
Climate diplomacy is consequently part of a much broader contest for influence.
For Australia, demonstrating that it can deliver meaningful climate engagement could help strengthen relationships with Pacific governments. But the limited attendance at the pre-COP meeting also illustrates the difficulty of translating diplomatic promises into sustained political attention.
Pacific governments are increasingly seeking partnerships on their own terms. They want climate finance, infrastructure, resilience support and greater influence over decisions that directly affect them.
That means symbolic visits alone are unlikely to settle the question of whether Australia can position itself as a long-term Pacific partner.
A Test Before COP31
The pre-COP gathering ultimately provides an early test of whether the Pacific can secure a stronger voice in the next stage of global climate diplomacy.
Around 4,000 delegates are expected in Fiji, where negotiators will work on issues that will feed into COP31 in Turkey. The declaration expected from Pacific leaders could help establish regional priorities before the larger negotiations begin.
But the contrast between the ambitions surrounding the meeting and the limited participation of outside leaders is significant.
For Pacific governments, this is an opportunity to demonstrate that some of the world’s smallest states can shape international climate negotiations despite having contributed relatively little to global emissions.
For Australia, it is an opportunity to demonstrate that its long-standing claim of being a leading Pacific partner extends beyond diplomacy and development assistance.
The question is whether the attention generated in Tuvalu and Fiji will translate into concrete commitments on climate finance, resilience and emissions at COP31.
The Pacific is calling this its moment. The response from larger powers will determine whether that moment becomes a lasting shift in climate diplomacy or simply another highly symbolic meeting followed by difficult negotiations behind closed doors.
With information from Reuters.
