China’s Ministry of State Security (MSS) is monitoring the surprise official visit of CIA Director John Ratcliffe to Cairo on Sunday, September 20, 2026, and his meetings with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi and the head of the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate, Major General Hassan Rashad. This rare visit has prompted in-depth strategic analysis within Chinese intelligence and security circles (primarily the Ministry of State Security). These concerns and analytical anxieties in Beijing stem from the nature of John Ratcliffe’s personality, known for his ideological embrace of the China threat concept since his time as Director of National Intelligence (DNI).
This is in addition to the significant geopolitical importance of Egypt and the Middle East in Chinese strategy. This visit, from a Chinese perspective, came at a time of heightened geopolitical tensions in the region following the Iran War and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Although Chinese intelligence agencies, such as the Ministry of State Security, do not typically release such information, the visit has generated considerable interest. While there are immediate and direct public assessments of such bilateral intelligence movements, the visit and its security dimensions can be interpreted through the lens of China’s usual strategic analysis of American actions in the Middle East and North Africa. The main concerns of Chinese security circles regarding John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo can be summarized as follows:
– First: An attempt to undermine China’s growing geopolitical influence.
– Securing vital maritime routes: Ratcliffe met with President Sisi and the head of Egyptian intelligence, Hassan Rashad, in Cairo to discuss international maritime security in the Red Sea and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait. China considers this region a crucial artery for its Belt and Road Initiative and Chinese trade with Europe and Africa. Beijing fears that Washington, through its intelligence and security channels, will seek to establish new security equations in the region that exclude China or marginalize its growing role.
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– Egypt’s policy of strategic balance: Egypt pursues a policy of diplomatic balance and refuses to fully align itself with any axis against it. Beijing. However, Chinese circles fear that US intelligence might use pressure tactics or present sensitive, decisive security and political offers to push Cairo toward reducing its security and technological cooperation with Beijing.
– Second: Chinese caution regarding Ratcliffe’s hostile intelligence approach toward Beijing
– The Chinese Ministry of State Security views John Ratcliffe as one of the hawks in the US administration who are primarily focused on combating China’s rise. He has previously overseen the declassification of intelligence files targeting Chinese activities.
– Chinese circles fear that Ratcliffe’s behind-the-scenes talks in Cairo might include an American attempt to warn against the use of Chinese technology, such as Huawei Technologies’ 5G networks and the artificial intelligence and cloud computing projects that Egypt is seeking to expand in partnership with China, under the pretext of espionage and cybersecurity concerns. This is an area of ​​intense intelligence conflict between Beijing and Washington.
– Third: Restricting economic and military expansion of China in Africa and the Horn of Africa
– China is apprehensive about Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo and the potential restrictions on its movements and activities in Africa and the Horn of Africa, regions sensitive to Chinese interests. This apprehension stems from the fact that Ratcliffe’s Cairo visit agenda already included discussions on the situations in Sudan, Somalia, and the Horn of Africa.
– Given China’s substantial investments and a military logistics base in neighboring Djibouti, Beijing is watching with concern any high-level US-Egyptian intelligence coordination that could lead to a reshuffling of the cards in the Horn of Africa and the Bab El-Mandeb Strait, potentially impacting China’s freedom of movement and strategic interests there.
– Fourth: Chinese Intelligence and Security Concerns Regarding Major Security Deals and Regional Arrangements
– John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo came at a highly sensitive regional juncture, coinciding with the escalation of the conflicts related to Iran and Yemen, and just days after the visit of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to Cairo.
– Chinese strategic studies centers fear that US intelligence will seek to build new regional security alliances and pump massive arms deals into the region, thus consolidating US military dominance and hindering China’s attempts to present itself as a neutral and reliable diplomatic peace broker in the Middle East (similar to its previous mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran).
Accordingly, Chinese security circles anticipate that Ratcliffe’s moves in Cairo extend beyond merely managing immediate crises, such as those in Gaza or Sudan, and are part of a broader American strategy to contain and encircle Chinese expansion in vital geopolitical focal points, with Egypt being one of the most important. Within this framework, we can analyze the complete Chinese intelligence and strategic perspective on the objectives of John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo, as follows:
– First: The Chinese Vision and Strategic Analysis of the Objectives of CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s Visit to Cairo (From a Chinese Perspective)
– Consolidating American Influence and Countering Asian Expansion: Chinese intelligence agencies view Washington’s intensification of high-level intelligence coordination with Cairo as a direct attempt to preserve the United States’ traditional security alliances and to block any deeper security or technological cooperation between Egypt and Eastern powers (Russia and China) on sensitive issues.
– Securing Maritime Routes as a Strategic Priority: Chinese intelligence, strategic, and security circles have extensively analyzed the US-Egyptian intelligence talks, focusing particularly on the security of international navigation in the Red Sea and the Horn of Africa (Somalia). From the Chinese perspective, this American interest stems from Washington’s desire to tighten security control over the waterways vital to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and to closely monitor the Bab El-Mandeb Strait amidst ongoing tensions. Chinese intelligence, military, political, and strategic circles are paying close attention to Egyptian-American cooperation in protecting maritime security, particularly in the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, which face direct threats that negatively impact international trade, the global economy, and the Suez Canal. Chinese decision-making centers are analyzing the significance of John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo to discuss international maritime security and address security and geopolitical challenges in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa.
– Containing Major Regional Crises: Beijing views the American-Egyptian coordination on the Iranian crisis, the Gaza war, and the situation in Sudan as an American move to manage regional interactions in a way that serves the interests of the new Trump administration and ensures that conflicts do not spiral out of Washington’s strategic control.
– Containing the Iranian Crisis and Ensuring Maritime Security: Chinese intelligence, strategic, and security circles paid close attention to John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo and its connection to the current Iranian crisis. Beijing is closely monitoring Egyptian mediation efforts to de-escalate tensions around the Strait of Hormuz. China is particularly interested in the Egyptian-American intelligence talks aimed at reaching a comprehensive agreement to end the Iranian crisis and reduce military escalation, thus protecting the region from the risk of a wider war. This aligns with China’s interests, its Belt and Road Initiative, and its investments and logistical interests in Egypt and the region.
– Monitoring the Gaza Strip and the Peace Process: Chinese political and strategic circles are closely following John Ratcliffe’s meetings in Cairo and the implementation of the second phase of the ceasefire plan in the Gaza Strip. This is especially relevant given President Sisi’s emphasis on the paramount importance of fully implementing the second phase of the ceasefire plan in Gaza, providing aid, and adhering to the two-state solution. Especially given the Egyptian-Chinese consensus on a number of Egyptian principles, namely the necessity of protecting civilians, ensuring the continued flow of humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip, and creating a political climate conducive to reviving the two-state solution.
– Addressing the Sudanese Crisis and the Horn of Africa: Chinese intelligence, military, political, and strategic think tanks are analyzing the connection between Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo and the discussions on the Sudanese issue with the Egyptian side. This is particularly relevant in light of the Egyptian-American intelligence cooperation during John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo to discuss ways to end the war in Sudan. Egypt and China jointly affirmed several principles, including the need to preserve Sudan’s unity and sovereignty and to support its legitimate national institutions to alleviate human suffering. This is evident in the growing Chinese-Egyptian support for the issue of stability in Somalia and the Horn of Africa and the rejection of Israeli recognition of the breakaway region of Somaliland. Hence, decision-making circles in Beijing focused on Egyptian-American intelligence cooperation to discuss all security developments in the Horn of Africa region, given Egypt and China’s firm rejection of any infringement on Somalia’s sovereignty or territorial integrity.
– Second: Chinese Intelligence Analysis of John Ratcliffe’s Visit to Cairo in Enhancing Direct Cooperation and Intelligence Sharing Between Cairo and Washington
According to the Chinese analysis, John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo had clear executive dimensions aimed at enhancing joint intelligence cooperation between the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate (GID) in several key areas, including:
– Combating Terrorism and Transnational Crime: An agreement was reached to expand channels for the immediate exchange of security information related to the activities of terrorist organizations, smuggling networks, and organized crime operating in areas of unrest surrounding Egypt, such as Libya, the Sahel region, and Sudan.
– Integrating Geopolitical Assessments: This is particularly relevant given Ratcliffe’s praise for the existing level of intelligence cooperation with Cairo and his emphasis on the importance of strengthening the exchange of shared security and intelligence perspectives and assessments to anticipate future scenarios in the Middle East and Africa, thus enhancing the ability of both parties to act proactively.
– Direct Security Mediation: The meetings demonstrated the role of Egyptian intelligence as an indispensable security partner for both Washington and Beijing in managing sensitive negotiation files, particularly regarding monitoring and solidifying ceasefire plans in the Gaza Strip and the Iranian and Sudanese files. These files require a highly coordinated flow of information between the two intelligence agencies.
– Strengthening Bilateral Security and Intelligence Cooperation and Joint Coordination: The visit aimed to elevate the level of direct cooperation and information exchange between the CIA and the Egyptian General Intelligence Directorate, as well as combat terrorism and crime. According to Chinese analysis, the security objectives of Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo included strengthening joint efforts to confront terrorist organizations, organized crime, and transnational crimes that threaten regional stability. In addition to intelligence coordination, the CIA director praised the level of cooperation between Egypt and the United States in combating terrorism, organized crime, and transnational crime, and emphasized Washington’s commitment to strengthening the exchange of perspectives and information as a matter of interest to Chinese intelligence and strategic circles.
Based on the preceding analysis and understanding, we can grasp the extent of the apprehension within Chinese intelligence, strategic, and security circles regarding John Ratcliffe’s visit to Cairo, given the escalating geopolitical tensions in the region. Chinese intelligence and strategic think tanks view this visit within the framework of a competition for influence, as the United States seeks to bolster its strategic partnership with Egypt at a time when the region is witnessing an expanding presence of other international powers, such as China and Russia. Therefore, analytical circles in Beijing are monitoring these American intelligence moves in Egypt as part of a broader competition among major powers for influence in Egypt, the Middle East, and Africa.
