Why Chinese Intelligence Believes Israel and the Muslim Brotherhood Are Reshaping North Africa

Intelligence circles in Beijing, specifically the Ninth Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of State Security (the de facto Chinese intelligence agency), view the Muslim Brotherhood’s current demonstrations in Libya and Tunisia and their attempts to extend them to Egypt’s immediate neighbors and then the Gulf states as an extension of the exploitation of chaos within the Arab Spring to serve Israeli agendas. These agendas aim to overthrow and change the Arab regimes surrounding Israel in favor of other leaders closely aligned with the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, following coordination between the Israeli Mossad and these leaders under the leadership of its new director Roman Gofman. Gofman’s appointment as head of the Mossad in June 2026 is linked to escalating the confrontation with Iran and protecting Tel Aviv’s strategic interests. This involves attempts to change the rules of engagement in the region to Israel’s advantage, in cooperation with the Islamic Movement of the 1948 Arabs, considered a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood within Israel, which is responsible for coordinating between the Israeli Mossad and the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood.

Chinese intelligence and security circles analyze the events of the Arab Spring and the demonstrations of the mass movement under the supervision of the Muslim Brotherhood in both Libya and Tunisia as a Western-Israeli intervention to destabilize countries and to implement strategies of chaos aimed at serving the interests of the NATO military alliance from the Chinese point of view and weakening central regimes, with the analysis of the Ninth Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of State Security linking it to the existence of coordination or direct support between the Israeli Mossad and the Muslim Brotherhood through the Islamic Movement in Israel from the Arabs of 1948 regarding these files.  The Chinese intelligence, security, strategic, and political perspective on the events in Tunisia and Libya is framed within the context of geopolitical chaos. The Ministry of State Security, which oversees Chinese intelligence, believes that the political changes in North Africa have led to the dismantling of state institutions and a lack of security, posing numerous economic threats. The Chinese leadership considers the current Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations, aimed at spreading chaos and causing the collapse of existing regimes in Libya and Tunisia, as potentially harming massive Chinese investment projects and regional trade. This necessitates confronting foreign interference aimed at fomenting chaos and instability in the region.

Chinese intelligence, military, and defense reports have observed that Western powers and the Israeli Mossad are exploiting the popular protests in the Middle East and North Africa to redraw the map of influence in the region and weaken China’s role and its Belt and Road Initiative. The Chinese security vision regarding the intelligence roles of some external powers seeking to overthrow Arab regimes in Libya and Tunisia, along with Chinese intelligence circles monitoring similar attempts in Egypt and the Gulf states, is based on a cautious Chinese analysis of the Mossad’s performance in its relationship with the Muslim Brotherhood and its exploitation of its conflict with the military institutions in Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and other countries in the region and the Gulf. This coincides with the Israeli Mossad’s fear of Chinese military coordination and joint training with Egypt, the UAE, and several Arab countries, which prompted the Israeli Mossad to coordinate and support the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and the Middle East to create unrest and chaos to protect Israel’s security borders.

Therefore, Chinese intelligence agencies are closely monitoring the movements of Israeli intelligence leaders, particularly after the appointment of the new Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, in June 2026, succeeding David Barnea, following his nomination by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. They are also observing the evolution of Mossad’s operational methods in the Arab region under Gofman’s leadership, aimed at toppling all Arab regimes surrounding Israel. Chinese intelligence, specifically the Chinese Ninth Bureau, has identified several clear indicators of this on the ground, including Gofman’s attempt to rapidly restructure the agency’s operational methods immediately upon assuming his post in June 2026, succeeding Barnea. His new strategy focuses particularly on the Arab region, specifically North Africa, including Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.  Chinese intelligence and military circles, along with think tanks concerned with the Middle East and political Islam movements in China, are monitoring the changing patterns in Israeli Mossad operations under its new director, Roman Gofman. These changes include restructuring and the recruitment of external consultants. Gofman is relying on integrating experts from outside the Israeli intelligence establishment and developing unconventional management mechanisms. This involves a heightened regional focus on Israel’s neighbors, such as Egypt, and a shift in operational priorities towards directly confronting nuclear programs and fortifications. He is also concentrating on tracking leaders in countries bordering Tel Aviv. This coincides with a change in the Mossad’s operational doctrine under Gofman, transforming its intelligence work from bureaucratic management to a more proactive, field-based approach with a direct military character, reflecting his background as a former general in the Israeli army.

Hence, the Ninth Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of State Security works to limit the impact of Western and Israeli espionage on the Arab countries neighboring Israel, known as the ring states, to protect those countries, especially Egypt and the Suez Canal, from any attempts at deliberate disruption and chaos by the Israeli Mossad in coordination with the international organization of the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood to obstruct the work of vital waterways and trade routes necessary to secure international supply chains sensitive to Chinese logistical interests. With clear indications from Chinese intelligence, military, political, and strategic circles pointing to a direct support theory from the Israeli Mossad for the Muslim Brotherhood, in coordination with the Islamic Movement within Israel (a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood within Israel comprised of 1948 Arabs), official and academic Chinese institutions have adopted the notion of an operational support relationship between the Mossad and the Muslim Brotherhood in Libya and Tunisia. This support, they argue, is aimed at instigating direct demonstrations to overthrow regimes, spreading chaos to reshape the regional power structure in favor of Israel. Consequently, Chinese intelligence circles view both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Mossad as complementary players working to achieve their respective interests within a complex regional conflict.

As an Egyptian specialist in Chinese politics and the policies of the ruling Communist Party of China, I can analyze the current situation for Chinese intelligence agencies following the recent Muslim Brotherhood demonstrations in Libya and Tunisia. These demonstrations are directly supported by the international organization of the terrorist Muslim Brotherhood group, in coordination with the Israeli Mossad. The Chinese Ninth Bureau is increasingly focused on monitoring foreign intelligence infiltration in North Africa, Egypt, and various countries in the region and the Gulf. This bureau is closely monitoring Mossad’s efforts to undermine China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the vital energy supply routes for China’s logistical interests as an ally of Iran. The Israeli Mossad is attempting to create chaos, unrest, and widespread demonstrations in all directions, particularly in countries bordering Israel, through the Muslim Brotherhood. The Chinese Ninth Bureau is assessing the current field movements in Tunisia, Libya, and Egypt, anticipating any attempts by the Muslim Brotherhood to stage protests and overthrow stable regimes allied with Beijing. This is being done under the direct direction of the Israeli Mossad, with the aim of creating what is known as the Hebrew Spring.

Beijing reports link the Muslim Brotherhood’s activities in North Africa (Tunisia and Libya) to attempts to create an unstable environment that would disrupt Asian influence in the Arab region and the Middle East. This is based on the monitoring by Chinese intelligence, military, political, and strategic circles of suspicious attempts at field coordination between the Israeli Mossad and the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, facilitated by leaders of the Islamic movement within Israel itself. Simultaneously, Chinese intelligence efforts are underway to counter this coordination by strengthening Chinese security and technical cooperation with countries in the region and Egypt to confront Western, Israeli, and Muslim Brotherhood spy networks in the regional arena. This is particularly significant given the implications of Roman Gofman’s appointment as head of the Mossad in June 2026 and his prioritization of confronting Israel’s neighboring countries. Gofman places dismantling Iranian regional influence and toppling the Tehran regime at the top of the agency’s structural priorities, followed by destabilizing other Arab regimes on the ground through the Muslim Brotherhood, which he views as an Israeli proxy.

This is why Chinese intelligence and military circles are apprehensive about the military background of the new Mossad chief, Roman Gofman, and his transition from serving as Netanyahu’s military secretary to leading the Mossad. This reflects a preference for direct, on-the-ground offensive operations and shock military solutions, coordinated with the Muslim Brotherhood on the ground to launch a direct attack by orchestrating simultaneous demonstrations across the region. The aim, according to Chinese analyses, is to pave the way for regime change in Arab countries and the installation of regimes allied with Israel, perhaps even from within the Muslim Brotherhood itself, following on-the-ground coordination between the Mossad and the Brotherhood. This underscores the reasons behind the rapid restructuring of the Israeli Mossad after Gofman’s appointment, involving extensive leadership changes and a restructuring of the senior staff to ensure loyalty and swift implementation of the political vision aimed at regime change and the overthrow of regimes neighboring Israel, particularly in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya.  Simultaneously with the evolution of Mossad’s field tactics in the Arab region, the Mossad instigated demonstrations in Libya and Tunisia, supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, and coordinated on the ground with the Israeli Mossad under the direct supervision of Major General Roman Gofman. This was in accordance with the logic of Israeli lightning operations, shifting from Mossad’s traditional, slow recruitment methods to advanced strikes and deep covert operations aimed at reshaping the entire region, particularly the countries bordering Israel. This was achieved by instigating demonstrations, gatherings, and widespread chaos, all orchestrated by the Muslim Brotherhood under the direct field supervision and coordination of the Mossad in Tel Aviv, culminating in the Hebrew Spring.

Here, the relevant intelligence circles in Beijing and the Ninth Bureau of the Chinese Ministry of State Security are monitoring the Mossad’s attempts at strategic containment of members of the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood. This includes exploiting local unrest and internal political movements in Arab countries and the region, such as Libya, Tunisia, and Egypt, to fuel internal divisions and preoccupy Arab states with their internal affairs. This is achieved through cross-border coordination between the Israeli Mossad and the international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, combining intelligence capabilities with direct Mossad military operations. The aim is to pave the way for the downfall of countries neighboring Israel, as occurred on multiple fronts at the start of the Arab Spring uprisings in 2011. This is what Israel aspires to achieve now, following the wars in Gaza and Iran).