NATO leaders will gather in Ankara on July 7-8 for a summit expected to focus on the alliance’s long-term security strategy amid an increasingly volatile global environment.

The meeting comes as Europe accelerates military spending, the United States pushes allies to shoulder more responsibility for regional defence, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, and tensions in the Middle East remain high following the Iran conflict.

Although officials fear developments in the Middle East could dominate discussions, NATO leaders are expected to keep their attention on strengthening the alliance’s deterrence and defence posture.

Why It Matters

The Ankara summit could shape NATO’s future direction at a pivotal moment.

The alliance is facing simultaneous challenges: maintaining U.S. commitment under President Donald Trump, preparing Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security, expanding defence production, sustaining support for Ukraine, and deterring Russia over the long term.

The decisions taken in Ankara will influence European security, defence investment and transatlantic relations for years to come.

Key Challenges Facing NATO

1. Keeping the United States Fully Committed

Perhaps NATO’s most immediate political challenge is preserving U.S. commitment to the alliance.

President Donald Trump has repeatedly questioned NATO’s value, criticised allies for insufficient defence spending and even suggested the United States could withdraw from the alliance. NATO officials are therefore working to reinforce Washington’s commitment to Article 5, the alliance’s collective defence guarantee.

Recent disputes over Greenland and differing approaches to the Iran conflict have further strained transatlantic relations.

2. Europe Taking Greater Responsibility

Washington wants European allies to assume primary responsibility for defending Europe while the United States increasingly focuses on the Indo-Pacific.

The United States has already reduced the military capabilities it has committed to NATO during a crisis. European members have moved quickly to replace most of those reductions, but concerns remain over whether Europe can sustain the transition without weakening deterrence.

3. Financing Higher Defence Spending

Defence spending remains one of NATO’s biggest political and economic challenges.

Alliance members have pledged to raise defence-related expenditure to 5% of GDP over the next decade, including:

• 3.5% for core military capabilities
• 1.5% for defence-related infrastructure and resilience

While spending has increased substantially across Europe and Canada, many governments face growing domestic political resistance as defence budgets compete with healthcare, pensions and other public spending priorities.

4. Expanding Defence Industrial Capacity

Increasing defence budgets alone will not strengthen NATO unless industry can rapidly produce military equipment.

Governments are expected to announce billions of dollars in new defence contracts in Ankara, but long production times continue to delay delivery of weapons, ammunition, aircraft and other critical equipment.

NATO leaders want manufacturers to expand production capacity and shorten delivery schedules to strengthen readiness.

5. Deterring Russia

Russia remains NATO’s principal long-term security concern.

Despite heavy battlefield losses and economic sanctions, Moscow continues devoting a significant share of national resources to military spending while maintaining pressure on Ukraine and NATO’s eastern flank.

Alliance leaders are expected to reaffirm that strengthening deterrence remains a central strategic objective.

6. Sustaining Support for Ukraine

More than four years into Russia’s full-scale invasion, NATO members continue providing financial and military support to Ukraine.

However, maintaining that support is becoming increasingly difficult as governments face fiscal pressures and political debates over burden-sharing.

Ensuring continued assistance without creating divisions among allies will remain a key challenge.

Key Stakeholders

United States

Washington wants Europe to assume greater responsibility while allowing the U.S. to focus more resources on strategic competition in the Indo-Pacific.

European NATO Members

European governments are increasing defence spending and military capabilities but must balance security needs with domestic political and fiscal constraints.

Ukraine

Kyiv depends heavily on continued Western military and financial assistance to sustain its defence against Russia.

Russia

Moscow continues to be viewed by NATO as the alliance’s primary long-term military threat despite ongoing costs from the Ukraine war.

Defence Industry

Manufacturers are under growing pressure to increase production capacity and deliver equipment faster as governments place larger orders.

Future Outlook

The Ankara summit is expected to reinforce NATO’s long-term transformation rather than produce dramatic policy changes.

European countries are likely to continue increasing defence spending and replacing some U.S. military capabilities, while cooperation on defence production will become an even greater priority.

Relations with Washington will remain a defining issue. Much will depend on whether European allies can convince the Trump administration that they are sharing a greater portion of the alliance’s defence burden.

At the same time, Russia’s military posture and continued support for Ukraine will shape NATO’s planning well beyond 2026.

Analysis

NATO is undergoing one of the most significant strategic transitions since the end of the Cold War. The alliance is no longer focused solely on deterring Russia; it is also adapting to a changing U.S. strategic outlook that prioritises competition with China and expects Europe to take greater responsibility for its own security.

This shift is reshaping burden-sharing within the alliance. While Europe has responded by increasing defence spending and military commitments, replacing decades of U.S. military leadership cannot happen quickly. Building new capabilities, expanding defence production and integrating forces across member states will require sustained political commitment and financial investment.

The Ukraine war has accelerated this transformation by exposing weaknesses in Europe’s defence industrial base and highlighting the need for larger stockpiles of ammunition and equipment. At the same time, continued support for Kyiv is becoming politically more difficult as governments face competing budget pressures and public concerns over the cost of prolonged military assistance.

Another key uncertainty is U.S. policy under President Trump. While NATO officials have sought to preserve transatlantic unity, Washington’s repeated calls for greater European self-reliance suggest the alliance is moving toward a more balanced distribution of responsibilities. How successfully Europe adapts to that shift will largely determine NATO’s cohesion and effectiveness over the coming decade.

Ultimately, NATO’s greatest challenge is not only deterring external threats but also managing internal political, financial and strategic differences while maintaining collective credibility.

With information from Reuters.