Syrian Foreign Minister Asaad al-Shibani visited Beirut for talks with Lebanese leaders, marking the first visit by Syria’s top diplomat since President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s new government took power after the fall of Bashar al-Assad in 2024.

The visit comes at a sensitive time for relations between the two neighbours, as both governments seek to redefine ties after decades of Syrian political and military dominance over Lebanon.

Trump revives debate over Syria’s possible role against Hezbollah

The visit follows comments by U.S. President Donald Trump, who suggested Israel should allow Syria to confront Hezbollah instead of continuing military operations in Lebanon.

Trump said he had discussed Hezbollah with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, arguing that Syria could do a better job of dealing with the Iran-backed militant group.

His remarks fueled speculation that Damascus could eventually play a security role in Lebanon.

However, Syrian officials have repeatedly denied reports that Syrian troops could enter Lebanon, insisting there are no plans for military intervention.

Why Syria is reluctant to intervene

Although Syria’s new rulers fought Hezbollah for years during Syria’s civil war, they are cautious about becoming involved in Lebanon’s internal security.

Reuters previously reported that Washington encouraged Damascus to consider deploying forces to eastern Lebanon to help weaken Hezbollah’s military presence.

Syrian leaders have resisted those proposals, fearing such a move would drag the country into another regional conflict while undermining efforts to stabilize Syria after more than a decade of civil war.

Damascus also remains concerned that any deployment could inflame sectarian tensions across the Syria-Lebanon border.

A dramatic shift in regional alliances

The visit highlights how dramatically Middle Eastern alliances have shifted since the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government.

During the Syrian civil war, Hezbollah was one of Assad’s strongest military allies, deploying thousands of fighters to support the Syrian army against rebel groups, including factions that now govern Syria.

Today, Syria’s leadership is rebuilding relations with Western and Arab governments while distancing itself from Iran’s regional network.

This transformation has altered regional security calculations for the United States, Israel and Gulf states.

Syria and Lebanon share a complicated history

Relations between Syria and Lebanon have long been politically sensitive.

Syrian forces entered Lebanon during its civil war in 1976 and remained there for nearly three decades, exerting significant influence over Lebanese politics until withdrawing in 2005 following widespread protests after the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri.

The legacy of Syrian influence continues to shape political attitudes in Lebanon, making any suggestion of renewed Syrian military involvement highly controversial.

Why Hezbollah remains central

Hezbollah remains Lebanon’s most powerful armed group despite years of conflict with Israel.

The organization is backed by Iran and maintains significant political and military influence inside Lebanon.

Disarming Hezbollah has become a major objective for both Israel and the United States, but Lebanese leaders have consistently warned that any attempt to do so by force could destabilize the country further.

Key stakeholders

• Syria: Seeking international legitimacy while avoiding deeper involvement in regional conflicts.
• Lebanon: Attempting to preserve domestic stability amid external pressure over Hezbollah.
• United States: Looking for regional partners to counter Hezbollah and reduce Iranian influence.
• Israel: Continues military operations against Hezbollah while exploring alternative security arrangements.
• Hezbollah: Faces growing military and diplomatic pressure following the Iran-Israel conflict.
• Iran: Risks losing another regional partner as Syria moves closer to Western and Arab states.

Future outlook

Syria is expected to continue strengthening diplomatic relations with Lebanon while resisting pressure to send troops across the border.

Instead of direct military intervention, Damascus is more likely to cooperate on border security, intelligence sharing and preventing arms smuggling.

Meanwhile, pressure on Hezbollah is expected to continue through diplomatic negotiations, Israeli military operations and international efforts to strengthen Lebanon’s state institutions.

Whether Syria eventually assumes a larger regional security role will depend on its domestic stability, relations with Washington and the broader trajectory of tensions between Iran, Israel and the United States.

Analysis

Al-Shibani’s visit is less about preparing for Syrian military involvement in Lebanon than about reassuring Beirut that Damascus does not intend to reassert its historic influence. The timing, however, means the visit inevitably carries strategic significance following Trump’s suggestion that Syria could confront Hezbollah.

For Syria’s new leadership, becoming directly involved against Hezbollah would carry enormous risks. While the government seeks closer ties with the United States and Arab states, it remains focused on consolidating power internally after years of conflict. Opening a new front in Lebanon could undermine fragile domestic stability, strain limited military resources and reignite sectarian tensions at home.

For Washington, Syria’s new government presents an opportunity to reshape regional alliances and further isolate Iran. Encouraging Damascus to distance itself from Hezbollah aligns with broader U.S. efforts to weaken Tehran’s network of regional allies.

Lebanon, meanwhile, remains caught between competing regional interests. Any perception of renewed Syrian military involvement would revive painful memories of decades of Syrian dominance and could deepen political divisions. Hezbollah also remains too deeply embedded in Lebanon’s political and security landscape for any quick military solution.

The visit therefore underscores a broader regional transition: Syria is attempting to reposition itself as a diplomatic actor rather than a military one. While cooperation with Lebanon is likely to increase, Damascus appears determined to avoid becoming directly involved in the confrontation with Hezbollah, preferring stability and international rehabilitation over renewed regional conflict.

With information from Reuters.