Myanmar’s government is preparing to restart the long-delayed Myitsone hydropower project, reviving one of the country’s most controversial infrastructure developments after more than a decade of suspension. Backed by China and valued at $3.6 billion when first approved in 2009, the project was halted in 2011 following widespread public opposition over environmental destruction, community displacement and concerns about Beijing’s growing influence in Myanmar.
The renewed push comes after President Min Aung Hlaing’s recent visit to China, where the project reportedly featured prominently in bilateral discussions. Officials now say construction could begin shortly and be completed within roughly eight years, reflecting closer political and economic cooperation between Naypyidaw and Beijing despite Myanmar’s ongoing civil conflict.
Myanmar prioritises energy security
The government argues that restarting the Myitsone dam is essential to addressing Myanmar’s chronic electricity shortages, which continue to constrain economic development and industrial activity.
With a planned generating capacity of 6 gigawatts, the project could supply more than half of Myanmar’s estimated electricity demand, making it one of Southeast Asia’s largest hydropower facilities. Officials view the dam as a strategic investment capable of strengthening long-term energy security while supporting broader economic recovery.
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China deepens its infrastructure footprint
The revival of Myitsone also highlights China’s enduring strategic interest in Myanmar despite years of political instability.
The project forms part of Beijing’s broader effort to strengthen economic connectivity with Myanmar through large-scale infrastructure investments. Resuming construction would reinforce China’s position as Myanmar’s most important economic partner while expanding its influence over the country’s energy sector.
Although previous agreements allocated around 90% of the electricity generated to China, it remains unclear whether those terms have been renegotiated.
Environmental concerns remain unresolved
Despite government assurances, environmental opposition continues to pose a major challenge to the project’s revival.
The dam would flood a vast area around the confluence of the Mali and Nmai rivers, permanently altering ecosystems, affecting biodiversity and displacing local communities. Civil society organisations argue that the environmental costs far outweigh the potential economic benefits, particularly given the project’s location in an ecologically sensitive region.
Government officials say newer engineering technologies can minimise environmental impacts, but critics remain unconvinced that these measures adequately address the long-term ecological consequences.
Earthquake risks add to opposition
Safety concerns have become even more pronounced following Myanmar’s devastating earthquake earlier this year.
The proposed dam site lies in a seismically active region, prompting renewed questions over the structural risks associated with building one of Southeast Asia’s largest dams in an earthquake-prone area.
Officials insist that modern engineering standards and updated construction techniques will ensure the project’s safety, while opponents argue that no technological safeguards can fully eliminate the risks posed by major seismic events.
Political divisions continue to deepen
The project remains politically sensitive more than a decade after it was first suspended.
Local communities, environmental organisations and civil society groups continue to oppose construction, warning that the dam threatens livelihoods, cultural heritage and regional stability. Dozens of organisations have called for the project to be permanently abandoned, arguing that it offers limited benefits for Myanmar while imposing significant social and environmental costs.
At the same time, the government has stepped up efforts to build public support through consultations and outreach initiatives in Kachin State, signalling its determination to move the project forward.
Rising costs could complicate implementation
While originally valued at $3.6 billion, the cost of completing the Myitsone dam could now exceed $11 billion due to higher construction expenses and inflation.
Such a significant increase could require additional Chinese financing and deepen Myanmar’s financial dependence on Beijing. Higher costs may also complicate project implementation at a time when the country’s economy continues to struggle with conflict, sanctions and limited foreign investment.
Implications
Restarting the Myitsone dam would represent one of the most significant infrastructure decisions taken by Myanmar’s current government. The project has implications extending far beyond electricity generation, affecting the country’s environmental policy, relations with China, domestic political stability and long-term development strategy.
For China, successful completion would demonstrate its ability to revive major overseas infrastructure investments despite political uncertainty. For Myanmar, however, the project risks intensifying domestic opposition if concerns over displacement, environmental degradation and unequal economic benefits remain unresolved.
Future Outlook
The government’s renewed commitment suggests the Myitsone project is closer to resuming than at any point since its suspension in 2011. However, construction is likely to face continued political, environmental and financial challenges that could delay implementation.
Progress will depend on the government’s ability to secure financing, address community concerns and maintain stability in Kachin State, where conflict and local resistance remain significant obstacles. Any escalation in civil unrest or renewed opposition could once again threaten the project’s future.
Analysis
The decision to revive Myitsone reflects a broader shift in Myanmar’s strategic priorities toward securing energy supplies and strengthening economic ties with China despite the political risks involved. For the government, the project offers an opportunity to address chronic electricity shortages and showcase large-scale infrastructure development. For Beijing, it represents the revival of a flagship investment that has long symbolised China’s economic ambitions in Myanmar.
Yet the project also illustrates the increasingly difficult balance between development and public acceptance. Unlike many infrastructure projects, Myitsone carries deep symbolic significance because it previously demonstrated the power of public opposition to influence government policy. Restarting construction without broad local support could reignite longstanding grievances and deepen distrust toward both the government and China.
Economically, the project’s viability has also changed considerably. Construction costs have risen sharply since 2009, while Myanmar’s fiscal position has weakened significantly due to years of political instability and conflict. This increases the likelihood of greater Chinese financial involvement, potentially expanding Beijing’s leverage over Myanmar’s strategic infrastructure.
Ultimately, the success of the Myitsone project will depend not only on engineering and financing but also on whether the government can convince the public that the economic benefits outweigh the environmental, social and geopolitical costs. Without that legitimacy, the dam may continue to represent one of Myanmar’s most divisive development projects rather than the national achievement its supporters envision.
With information from Reuters.
