China strongly condemned the US and Israeli attacks against Iran, deeming the targeting of a sovereign state during negotiations and the assassination of its leaders and symbols unacceptable. Beijing seeks to protect its economic ally and ensure oil supplies but avoids direct military intervention, preferring diplomatic pressure to maintain its broader trade relations with the United States. The Chinese Foreign Ministry described the US attacks against Iran as a serious violation of Iranian sovereignty and called for an immediate ceasefire and a resumption of dialogue. Beijing also criticized Washington’s policy of forcibly changing the Iranian regime through the deliberate and continued targeting of Iranian territory, describing it as the law of the jungle. China also announced its support for international efforts through the United Nations to mitigate the conflict and its repercussions on global stability, global and regional supply chains, and international trade through the Strait of Hormuz.
The American objective in continuing attacks on Iran, despite ongoing negotiations, lies in Washington’s attempt to undermine Chinese influence in Iran and the region. The deeper goal of US President Donald Trump’s administration is to disrupt the comprehensive strategic partnership between China and Iran and to economically isolate Beijing, especially since China relies on Iran as a vital energy lifeline, independent of the dollar’s dominance. Beijing depends on the continued flow of Iranian oil supplies to safeguard its national and economic security. For this reason, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce rejected the unilateral US sanctions imposed on its companies importing Iranian oil, deeming them unilateral. Furthermore, the continued US military strikes against Iran are also an attempt to impose deterrent negotiating terms on Tehran. Through military escalation against Iran, Washington aims to implement a maximum pressure policy to force Tehran to concede on its military and nuclear issues by weakening its position. This also constitutes an attempt to change the rules of engagement, as the US administration seeks to effect a strategic shift in the region, contain Iran’s regional expansion, and diminish its influence. On the other hand, Beijing is avoiding any direct military confrontation with Washington, using its economic influence to support Tehran in circumventing Western and American sanctions.
Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security agencies have analyzed the reasons behind the US administration’s attempt to change the rules of engagement with Iran, despite Pakistani mediation efforts regarding the current Iranian-American crisis, which were sponsored and supported by China. They interpret this as a US military maneuver, shifting from traditional containment of Iran to direct confrontation, to reduce Iranian regional influence at the expense of its close ally, Israel, and to prevent Iran from linking regional fronts (the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon). This is being pursued through a multi-pronged US strategy that includes direct military confrontation and US military intervention, alongside US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, to impose a new deterrent reality that weakens Iran’s hard power capabilities and those of its allies. This strategy is being implemented through a policy of strict US containment and intense economic pressure against the Iranian regime, in parallel with ongoing US-Iranian negotiations, to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons. As the United States attempts to exert intense military pressure on Iran to force it to adopt a policy of separating the battlefields, meaning to curb Iranian retaliation by containing the conflict regionally, establishing new rules of engagement, and preventing countries like Lebanon and Yemen from becoming mandatory platforms for proxy attacks on behalf of Tehran against Washington, from a Chinese intelligence and analytical perspective, it is attempting to implement a parallel deterrence policy. This policy aims to ensure the success of these American pressures and military interventions against Tehran, compelling it to adopt new response strategies that focus on managing escalation and avoiding a full-scale war.
The Trump administration’s strategy toward Tehran is closely linked to its goals of containing Beijing. Undermining the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and Iran and weakening Chinese influence in the Middle East is a deeper objective, aimed at encircling the Chinese economy and disrupting its global ambitions in the region through its Belt and Road Initiative interests and investments. Disrupting this partnership (known as the Cooperation Program, signed in 2021 between China and Iran) is central to the current US agenda. This objective can be broken down as an American attempt to undermine economic alliances between China and its allies. Washington seeks to prevent Beijing from accessing cheap Iranian oil supplies and to alleviate economic pressure on Tehran through its trade networks. Furthermore, the US aims to undermine China’s geopolitical influence. The escalation and US operations in the Middle East, and particularly in Iran, aim to deprive China of strategic depth and footholds in vital waterways, such as the Strait of Hormuz.
Here, Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security agencies analyzed the reasons for the continued US military strikes against Iran, attributing them to complex strategic and military factors. The most prominent of these was the attempt to halt Iran’s nuclear and missile programs. Washington sought to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons and to destroy its ballistic missile capabilities, which threaten US interests and allies. Simultaneously, the US attempted to cultivate closer ties with the Gulf states at their expense, claiming that the continued military strikes against Iran were necessary to secure navigation, energy supplies, and the security of the Gulf states. These US military operations were primarily aimed at protecting international shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz and preventing any potential Iranian attacks against oil and gas facilities in the region and the Gulf. Chinese intelligence and military circles also considered the continuation of US military strikes against Iran to be a consequence of a series of attacks targeting US military bases in the region. This occurred alongside the US’s persistent accusations that Iran was targeting its military bases in the Gulf, threatening the security of its Gulf allies, and jeopardizing energy security and vital trade routes in the Middle East. Therefore, through military escalation against Iran, Washington seeks to defend its regional military bases, particularly in the Gulf region. The US claims that many of these military strikes against Iran are acts of self-defense and retaliation for attacks targeting US bases, such as the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and other US military bases in allied Gulf states and Jordan. Furthermore, the US is attempting to exert internal and external political pressure on Iran. Here, Washington is using military operations to pressure the Iranian regime in order to appease the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu, amidst Israeli support and demands for comprehensive operations.
From the preceding understanding and analysis, we can grasp the extent to which the United States is pursuing a policy of comprehensive attrition against both China and Iran. The continued targeting of China’s economic allies, such as Iran, is seen as a broader step in the great power struggle. Given China’s reliance on energy imports, the US seeks to control these Chinese partnerships and alliances to impose its will on Beijing.
