We all know that President Trump hates to lose. The president and his team have often been outspoken about their desire to see Oslo reward the administration’s efforts to resolve foreign conflicts from Azerbaijan to Pakistan with a Nobel Prize. In the end, the prestigious award went to US-backed Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado.
But Trump should not despair too much. The same day Machado won the award, she took to social media to dedicate it to the president and his “decisive support” for the democratic Venezuelan opposition.
Machado was wise to include President Trump in her win, as the US mulls its next moves in Venezuela. President Trump has long demonstrated a willingness to put real pressure on Maduro’s dictatorial regime, with some analysts believing that the president will soon opt for regime change. In tying her Nobel Prize win to President Trump, Machado is surely hoping to get the man who has the most say over what happens in Venezuela in the coming weeks firmly on side.
In his first term, President Trump pursued aggressive sanctions against the Maduro regime. The administration levied financial sanctions against Caracas in August 2017 and pursued even more aggressive measures in early 2019, following Maduro’s illegitimate ‘victory’ in the 2018 Venezuelan presidential election. Towards the end of his first presidency, Trump reportedly became frustrated at the slow-moving pace of sanctions and the fact that, despite the devastating economic impact in Venezuela, the Maduro regime seemed able to weather the storm. Maduro’s repression of Venezuelans continued apace despite sanctions. He, therefore, reportedly asked for military options from his officials, including plans for a potential blockade of Venezuela.
President Trump’s approach to Venezuela was obviously interrupted by Joe Biden’s victory in 2020. President Biden pursued a rapprochement with Caracas, entering dialogue with Maduro about the future prospect of free and fair elections. These negotiations culminated in the Barbados Agreement in October 2023 between Maduro and the Venezuelan opposition, which aimed to bridge the gap between the regime and opposition, as well as provide guarantees of a democratic, internationally observed election in 2024. Alongside the declaration, Biden eased oil sanctions on Venezuela.
There were warning signs about the efficacy of the agreements from the beginning. Despite the deal, the Maduro government still banned Machado from running in the election. President Biden was forced to reinstate sanctions following Maduro’s claim of victory in 2024, an election that one Venezuelan expert dubbed “the largest electoral fraud in Latin America’s history.”
Machado knows that Trump is unlikely to pursue Biden’s diplomatic tactics; he rightly knows that Maduro will never shed his autocratic skin. Trump has already decided to allow most oil licenses granted by Biden to lapse—despite some reissuances in July—and has left the world guessing on his intentions in Venezuela after the recent US naval deployment near Venezuela. For her part, Machado is very supportive of Trump’s recent strategy. She has backed the administration’s decision to strike the boats of alleged drug traffickers, describing the moves as “courageous” and “visionary.” Trump has downplayed talk of regime change in recent weeks, though there are reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a longtime Venezuela hawk, is supportive of using US military power to oust Maduro.
María Corina Machado is now in a uniquely strong position. The Nobel Peace Prize is a real boost for her international recognition and legitimacy. Indeed, Machado told the BBC that the prize felt “like an injection” for her opposition movement. And with the Trump administration showing no signs of slowing down with pressure on Maduro not even a year into their second term, Machado is looking to capitalize for her cause.
The total number of people killed in US strikes on alleged drug smugglers now numbers 27, and the policy looks set to continue. If President Trump and Secretary of State Rubio really are intent on regime change in Venezuela, Machado looks to be the figure who will receive US backing. In tying President Trump to her Nobel Prize win, Machado has acknowledged a fundamental truth: both Venezuela’s and Maduro’s future depend primarily on the actions of the US.
