Can Malaysia and China help secure Asia’s food future? A landmark agreement signed between the two nations late last year aims to do just that.
Marking a milestone in their 50-year diplomatic relationship, the agreement could reshape their domestic food security landscapes, building on recent trade agreements. As ASEAN Chair in 2025, Malaysia can also develop policies for regional food security, reinforcing its commitment to inter-regional cooperation.
Though full details are yet to be revealed, the agreement presents opportunities for both nations to collaborate in securing food supplies.
Trade relations between China and Malaysia have flourished, reaching nearly US$98 billion between January and November 2024 alone. Agricultural trade remains a key driver of this. In 2023, Malaysia exported over US$4.2 billion in agricultural goods to China, with palm oil products comprising 54 percent. Other major exports include rubber (US$1.15 billion) and cocoa (US$145 million), reinforcing Malaysia’s role in supplying key products to China.
This trade is mutually beneficial. China also supplies Malaysia with vital food products. The interdependence of their agricultural sectors highlights the importance of a stable, cooperative trade relationship to ensure food security for both nations.
Agriculture contributes 11.6 percent to Malaysia’s gross domestic product (GDP) and employs 1.87 million people. In China, agriculture, employing 177 million people, accounts for 16.24 percent of the GDP. These figures underscore the strategic importance of agriculture in both economies and the potential for further collaboration in food production and innovation, essential for long-term stability.
Food security has become urgent in both China and Malaysia, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions, trade disruptions, and supply chain challenges. These factors have pushed both nations to prioritise self-sufficiency in food production and reduce reliance on global trade. As global food security concerns rise, both countries have made food security and local agriculture central to their national strategies.
However, boosting local food production is hindered by population shifts, demographic changes, and limited arable land and water resources. Climate shocks, such as extreme weather events, worsen these challenges, fuelling fears of crop failures and the spread of pests and diseases.
The impact of climate change on food security is stark. Notably, in 2022, a severe drought in China’s Yangtze River basin, a major rice-growing area, affected 2.2 million hectares of arable land, raising alarms for Beijing. Adding to concerns, studies show that climate change and ozone pollution reduced China’s crop yield by 10 percent (55 million tonnes annually) between 1981 and 2010, highlighting long-term vulnerabilities in food production.
Malaysia has also faced climate-related setbacks. The 2021 and 2022 floods caused US$30.87 million in agricultural, fisheries, and livestock losses. The November-December 2024 floods led to additional damage, including an estimated US$2 million in losses from rice plantation destruction. Local media reports noted that this forced the country to increase rice imports.
Projections are grim. Research shows that temperature increases and changing rainfall patterns could reduce Malaysia’s rice yield by up to 31 percent by 2030.
As Malaysia and China face growing concerns over food import reliance, food security and self-sufficiency have become urgent priorities. In 2022, Malaysia imported about 60 percent of its food.The three biggest suppliers were China (11.5 percent), Argentina (10.4 percent) and Thailand (9.2 percent). The country’s food self-sufficiency rate for key commodities like rice was 62.6 percent, while vegetables stood at a lower 44.7 percent. This dependency has sparked debates on whether better resource utilisation or greater self-reliance is key to ensuring domestic food security.
Similarly, China’s self-sufficiency ratio has sharply declined from 93.6 percent in 2000 to 65.8 percent in 2020. Projections indicate a further drop to 58.8 percent by 2030. Since 2004, China has shifted from being a net exporter to a net importer. Most food imports are from Brazil (24.85 percent), the U.S. (13.96 percent), and Thailand (5.60 percent).
To address these challenges, Malaysia and China should explore collaborative solutions. Taking inspiration from the Joint Center for Food Security and Sustainable Agricultural Development established between the University of Sydney and Peking University, the two nations could set up research centres focused on key staples like rice, wheat, and climate-resilient crops. These centres would bring together researchers, academics, and agribusinesses from both countries to support agricultural innovation amid climate volatility.
Nonetheless, issues like differences in agricultural practices, infrastructure, resource allocation, and political priorities must be addressed to ensure the success of such collaborative initiatives.
As the 2025 ASEAN Chair, Malaysia could propose the establishment of ASEAN+1 food research and development centers in collaboration with China. This initiative would enhance regional food security by developing and testing agricultural technologies, sharing case studies, and offering best practices tailored to local contexts.
However, challenges such as limited research funding, geopolitical disagreements, and varying technological needs may hinder progress.
International collaboration could also strengthen food security further. Australia, an agricultural powerhouse and regional partner, offers valuable lessons. Between 2007 and 2020, Australia boosted wheat yields by 14 percent through advanced technology and better management practices.
The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation suggests that implementing technical and managerial adaptations in cropping systems—tailored to anticipated climate change scenarios—could increase yields by another 15 percent, providing a model for both Malaysia and China to enhance food production resilience amid climate challenges.
Yet, issues remain, including limited access to cutting-edge technology, disparities in agricultural infrastructure, and resistance to new farming practices due to financial constraints and traditional methods.
As climate-related challenges continue to mount, Malaysia and China’s collaboration on agricultural innovation and food security can set a regional precedent, ensuring a more resilient and self-sufficient future for their agricultural sectors.
