History is replete with instances where political actions, intended to strengthen or resolve conflicts, instead led to unforeseen and often disastrous outcomes. Mikhail Gorbachev’s policies of Glasnost and Perestroika, designed to rejuvenate the Soviet Union, paradoxically set in motion its collapse in 1991. Similarly, the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914, a single act by a Serbian nationalist, triggered the cataclysm of World War I. British Prime Minister Neville Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler, embodied in the Munich Agreement of 1938, failed to prevent the Nazi expansion, ultimately catalyzing the horrors of World War II.
In the Middle East, Israel’s security policy has similarly evolved in ways that seem to defy logic, with repeated miscalculations and failures. The British withdrawal from Palestine in 1948, without sufficient consultation with regional stakeholders, and the subsequent founding of Israel, resulted in a regional conflict that continues to reverberate. Only 33 out of 56 United Nations members supported the creation of a Jewish state, leading to protracted hostilities in a predominantly Arab-Muslim region. Today, Israel faces unprecedented security threats, with its very existence increasingly questioned on the international stage.
The question now arises: Why was Israel able to overcome security challenges with relative ease in previous wars, yet now finds itself on the brink of disaster following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack? A significant part of the answer lies in the policies of former U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite presenting himself as a staunch ally of Israel, many of his actions—such as the Abraham Accords, the recognition of Jerusalem as Israel’s capital, and his disregard for Palestinian claims—have left Israel in a more precarious position than at any point since the Arab-Israeli wars of the 20th century.
Trump’s Middle East policies disrupted the regional balance in a way that has proven difficult for the Biden administration to correct. His unilateral actions, including the Abraham Accords and the U.S. withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA), created deep rifts that continue to undermine both American interests and regional security. The Abraham Accords, far from resolving the Palestinian issue, have instead deepened Arab frustration and alienated Palestinian leadership. In addition, these accords have been criticized for sidelining Palestinian sovereignty and reducing their cause to little more than an economic issue controlled by Washington, Tel Aviv, and Riyadh. The relocation of the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem further inflamed tensions and created a sense of betrayal among Palestinian and Arab leadership.
This shift away from a balanced, two-state solution to an unabashedly pro-Israel stance has rendered the U.S. an ineffective mediator, thus undermining any hope for a lasting peace. Even under President Biden, American policy remains mired in the legacy of Trump’s actions, with the Abraham Accords evolving into what is increasingly perceived as a “war for Abraham” rather than a peace initiative. The October 7 Hamas attack was, in part, a result of the deepening despair and frustration caused by the failure of U.S. policies to address the Palestinian crisis. Gaza, under a suffocating blockade and with no viable path to peace, became a powder keg that erupted in violence, leading to the current escalation.
Moreover, Trump’s 2018 exit from the JCPOA and his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran has had catastrophic ripple effects. Pushing Iran to the brink, the U.S. policy emboldened Tehran, pushing the country to exceed nuclear enrichment limits and inch closer to weapons-grade capability. In response to growing isolation and perceived existential threats, Iran has expanded its network of proxies across the region, further destabilizing countries like Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, and now Gaza. The result is an increasingly volatile security environment, with the risk of broader regional conflict escalating into a direct confrontation.
Trump’s approach to Iran has set the stage for a looming nuclear crisis in the Middle East. Iran’s nuclear “breakout” time—how long it would take to produce a nuclear weapon—has shrunk dramatically, now estimated at just one week. Meanwhile, the Israel-Gaza conflict risks spiraling into a wider war that could quickly involve other regional powers, potentially triggering a catastrophic series of events.
A broader, potentially nuclear, conflict now looms, involving not just Israel and its adversaries, but potentially drawing in other global powers. The destabilizing impact of Trump’s policies could be the catalyst for a nuclear arms race in the Middle East, with countries like Iran revisiting their nuclear doctrines in response to growing security threats. Had the U.S. pursued diplomatic engagement, encouraging Iran to return to the international fold, the region might not now be facing the existential threats it does.
The pressing task for the U.S. is to move away from the policies of Trumpism and the Abraham Accords, and instead support diplomatic engagement with both Israel and Iran. With Israel’s geographic limitations and lack of strategic depth, any major conflict—particularly one involving nuclear weapons—would spell catastrophe not just for Israel, but for the entire region and potentially the world. The next administration faces a stark choice: return to diplomacy and work toward de-escalation, or face the prospect of an all-out regional war that could spill over into a global conflict.
The future of Middle East stability hinges on the ability of global leaders to shift away from misguided unilateralism and embrace the complexities of diplomacy. The world cannot afford another cycle of self-sabotage.
