Austria is one of the most crucial members of the European Union as it holds a unique position of neutrality, being one of the few European nations that are not part of NATO. This neutrality is a powerful statement on European politics as it showcases a more sensible approach to European affairs that is not influenced by external factors such as military alliances and pressure from non-European countries such as the U.S. The purpose of this paper is to explore Austrian politics and their significance in two parts. The first part of this paper will analyze the political parties of Austria, scrutinizing their policies and stances towards major problems that occur inside their country and in the European Union.
The second part will include an analysis of Austrian relations with Russia and how the newly elected parliament will view this relationship under the ongoing war in Ukraine and the stance of the EU as a whole against their neighbor. In the end, this paper will have successfully shown how important are the Austrian elections for the future of the EU, and whether a more united front will emerge in European politics.
Austria’s internal politics reflect a dynamic landscape of political competition that promotes stability and a sense of neutrality when it comes to its foreign relations. That has been the case since the end of WWII and more specifically, since 1955 when Austria passed the Declaration of Neutrality[1], allowing itself to become one of the most strategic and influential countries in the European Union.
Since then, Austria has enjoyed decades of political stability with two parties dominating the political scene. The two-colored factions that go head to head in every election are the ÖVP[2] (turquoise) and SPÖ[3] (red). With that being said, just in the last decade, the Austrian political scene has changed from a two-colored dominance into a polychromatic political arena where now five political parties go head to head for the majority of votes and a chance to form a coherent Austrian government. There is a growing support for the FPÖ[4] (blue), the GRÜNE[5] (green) and NEOS[6] (fuchsia). As it stands now, since 2019, the Austrian People’s Party and the Greens have created a coalition to form a government. However, with the European Parliament elections and the parliamentary elections of Austria being just a few months away, the political landscape of Austria will definitely change and new coalitions might be created or dismantled.
ÖVP: Austrian People’s Party
Since its founding in 1945, the centre/right-wing Christian democratic party known as Austrian People’s Party, has dominated Austrian politics as a single entity or in a form of a coalition government with other parties. It finds large support in the rural areas of Austria particularly from farmers, the middle class and Catholic groups due to its history as the official successor of the Christian Social Party[7].
In 2017, under the leadership of Sebastian Kurz, the party adopted a new color of representation, going from black to turquoise, while also creating an alternative name for it, the New People’s Party. Sebastian Kurz ran on a right-wing agenda focusing on illegal immigration crackdown and a fierce opposition to political Islam. This highly conservative program aligned them closer to the FPÖ. Together, they formed a coalition government with Kurz serving as the youngest Chancellor in Austrian history. Kurz’s youth and modern rhetoric allowed him to gain increased popularity in Austria and across the European Union. His policies focused on modernizing Austria’s bureaucratic system while simultaneously increasing the internal security of Austria, prioritizing a reduction in illegal immigration and the influence of Islam. Additionally, in EU politics, the ÖVP aligns with the European People’s Party Group and has 7 out of the 19 members of the European Parliament representing Austria.
The coalition between the ÖVP and FPÖ lasted until 2019 when the government was ousted in a no-confidence vote due to the political scandal labeled as the Ibiza Affair[8]. Kurz remained the Chairman of the ÖVP and returned as Chancellor of Austria in new snap elections in which the ÖVP gained 9 additional seats at the National Council gathering 37.5% of total votes. From that point they created a coalition government with the Greens, keeping the same ideology stance against illegal immigration and the expansion of political Islam.
In 2021, Sebastian Kurz was under a corruption investigation which forced him to resign as Chancellor and later on as Chairman of the ÖVP. After his resignation, Foreign Minister Alexander Schallenberg temporarily took over the position until a new leader for the ÖVP was elected. Karl Nehammer received 100% of the votes and was elected as Chairman of the ÖVP. He is the current Chancellor of Austria in a coalition government with the Greens. As it stands now, official polls suggest that the Austrian People’s Party will play a major role in the Austrian elections, although it is very unclear if they actually manage to gain a majority vote to govern alone in Austria.
SPÖ: Social Democratic Party of Austria
The SPÖis a social democratic/centre-left political party and for decades it has served as the political “nemesis” of the ÖVP, although both parties have collided together numerous times to produce a functioning government. Founded in 1889, it is the second most popular political party in Austria, cherishing itself as a traditional worker’s party (Nordsieck, 2019). It has a significant influence amongst blue-collared workers as historically it was always on the socialist spectrum. Since 2023, the party has been led by Andreas Babler, mayor of the city of Traiskirchen[9]. Currently, the SPÖ holds 40 of the 183 seats in the National Council, accumulating 21.2% of the votes. In European affairs, the party is a member of the Party of European Socialists, having 5 of its members representing the party in the European Parliament.
When it comes to actual policies, the election of Andreas Babler as the Chairman of the SPÖ signifies a complete change into the political attitude of the Socialist Party. With the appointment of Sebastian Kurz as Chancellor of Austria, the SPÖ shifted its focus entirely towards opposing any coalition government headed by Kurz. This animosity towards him did not have the right results that they expected, as the people of Austria did not rally behind them. The 2019 elections proved to be a disaster for the party, losing approximately 12 seats in the National Council. Babler’s ascension as the party leader will focus more on reuniting the left in Austria, hoping to strive for better results.
However, this strategy will probably backfire, as the political agenda of the SPÖ has not changed over the last decades, with the party members failing to reconcile with the people of Austria. Their failures to address major problems in Austria and the EU, such as illegal immigration, the rise of criminality and a polarizing rise of political Islamism, will not allow them to gain the upper hand in the 2024 elections. Their best hope is a close second place. With that being said, even the current second place is unclear as people in Austria have grown tired of leftist policies and dissatisfaction towards the left looms all over Europe. Strategic alliances will be necessary to sustain a functioning government if the attitude of the common voter turns suddenly to the left. However, as polls suggest right now, the SPÖ will have a hard time gathering the much needed support it needs.
FPÖ: Freedom Party of Austria
One of the most surprising turns of events in the Austrian political theater over the last decade, is the rise of the Freedom Party of Austria. The FPÖ was established in 1956 as the official successor of the Federation of Independents[10]. Up until 1986, the party was aligned with centrist ideas opposing both socialism from the SPÖ and Catholic clericalism from the ÖVP. In 1986, Jörg Haider[11] became the leader of the FPÖ, completely changing the ideological direction of the party. He introduced right-wing populism targeting illegal immigrants and Islam ideology, while also riding along the anger of the common Austrian people against the self-interests of ÖVP and SPÖ. This turn of ideology allowed the party to gain much needed votes from young people and workers, making the FPÖ the third most powerful political party in Austria.
In 2017, the FPÖ managed to get 26% of the votes in the legislative elections, a remarkable result and one of its best of the last 20 years. The result allowed FPÖ to join a coalition government with the ÖVP, gaining control of 6 ministries, including the most crucial ones such as foreign affairs and defence. Two years later, however, the Ibiza Affair shook the foundations of the FPÖ, leading to the dissolution of the coalition government and the expulsion of Heinz-Christian Strache as chairman of the party. Because of this scandal, FPÖ credibility was shattered, bringing support to the party down to 16% while at the beginning of the COVID-19 crisis in 2020, the party was accounting for only 10% of voters’ support.
However, 4 years later, after a disastrous governmental management during COVID-19 and a ludicrous financial aid to the falling state of Ukraine, people’s votes and trust have shifted back to the FPÖ. All the credit goes to the new party leader, Herbert Kickl[12]. Kickl has ascended in Austrian politics in the last couple of years, after becoming leader of the FPÖ. His right wing and anti-immigration rhetoric has been a trademark since his early days as a member of the FPÖ. Recent political circumstances have allowed him to gain even more support. He is a harsh critic of the current Chancellor Karl Nehammer, mainly focusing on his decisions during COVID-19 and suppression of individual freedom (Hoare, 2024). He also gained support by declaring his commitment to Austria’s neutrality and opposing any support for Ukraine, as well as blocking any talks about the accession of Ukraine into the European Union.
His rhetoric reflects the frustration of the common Austrian, as well as the common EU citizen. As a result, his party sees similarities with other right-wing parties in Europe such as FIDESZ[13]. As it stands now, we are only a few months away from legislative elections in Austria and polls show that the FPÖ is the leading party in Austria with 28%[14], followed by the ÖVP with 19% and SPÖ with 23%. With the public opinion in favour of Herbert Kickl, it will not be a far-fetched claim to even suggest that he has the best chances to become the next Chancellor of Austria, if his party manages to get autonomous governance or join a coalition government.
GRÜNE: The Greens-The Green Alternative
The Green Alternative is a green political party, focusing primarily on ecopolitics. The Green Alternative earns its reputation as a left-liberal party that primarily attracts young voters and liberal intellectuals in Austrian cities (Nordsieck, 2019). While the focus and rhetoric of the Greens revolves around environmental protection and preservation, it has also expanded to different branches of leftist ideology like feminism, anti-corporation and minority rights. Founded in 1986 from sit-up protests regarding various non environmental friendly projects being built in Austria, the Greens have followed the same global ideology of the worldwide Green Movement.
Regarding their success in parliamentary elections, the Greens saw their first minor victory in 2008 accumulating 10.4% of votes in the Austrian parliamentary elections. However, from that point on, the Greens have received massive losses reaching a disastrous point in 2017 when they lost all the seats on the National Council failing to achieve the 4% threshold in the elections.
Nevertheless, two years later in 2019, the Greens transformed themselves to a modern political cinderella bouncing back on the National Council and achieving for the first time to be part of a coalition government alongside with the ÖVP. Werner Kogler[15] accepted the invitation of Sebastian Kurz to form a coalition government even though both politicians and their respective parties had different opinions as to which direction Austria should be headed.
Outside Austria, the Greens are part of the European Green Party and the Global Greens. They are represented in the European Parliament by 3 members of their party. With the declining popularity of the Green Movement in Europe, the Austrian Greens have decided to take a risky chance in the 2024 European elections, by nominating its lead candidate Lena Schilling[16]. Despite her youth, being only 23 and not having any political experience, the Greens have placed their hopes in her youthfulness and environmental activism in order to accumulate enough votes in the upcoming European elections. Whether this will be a successful move from the Greens we have to wait and see.
In the meantime, things do not look very optimistic for the Green Party, being fourth in national polls with 13.9% of votes. Realistically, their only chance to be part of a coalition government will be to join forces together with the SPÖ and NEOS. However, in this state, the SPÖ is making a strong effort to resist the ÖVP and the FPÖ, completely dividing the left in Austria. For the time being, a triple leftist coalition seems like a pie in the sky.
NEOS: The New Austria and Liberal Forum
The last political party that completes the palette of colours for Austrian politics is the NEOS party. Born on libertarian ideals of maximizing individual autonomy and political freedom, NEOS is the newest member in the political race of Austrian politics, being founded in 2012 and merging with the Liberal Forum[17] in 2014, adopting its current name (Nordsieck, 2019). A 2016 analysis[18], describes NEOS as a purist centre party caught in between the ÖVP and the GRÜNE, providing a fresh note of modern liberal influence.
This liberal influence however, has had a minimal effect on Austrian elections. Their best result came in 2019 with 8.1% of votes, securing 15 seats at the National Council. Nevertheless, the result was not sufficient enough for NEOS to achieve a junior coalition with the ÖVP party. Since June 2018, the party has been led by Beate Meinl-Reisinger[19], whose hopes lay on a promising alliance with the Greens and the SPÖ party. However, her hopes might remain a distant fantasy due to the inability of the Austrian left to come together in unity.
A more realistic scenario for the NEOS party would be better results in the European Parliament elections. NEOS is a member of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe having one of its members securing a seat in the European Parliament with the Renew Europe Group. On April 16, 2024, NEOS launched its campaign ahead of the European Parliament elections. Helmut Brandstätter[20], the leading candidate for the NEOS party stressed out the fact that liberals are the only force that can guarantee a strong presence of Austria in the EU. In his own words as published by the official website[21] of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe:
“NEOS is clearly the only party 100 per cent in favour of a strong, united Europe on all issues. After these elections, we will lead more intensive cooperation for the people of Europe. We want the United States of Europe. Unfortunately there are both solutions and dangers, so we have to talk about them too. The important thing about our campaign is that we have both: we draw attention to the dangers, argue how we can protect people and say what we urgently need to make this Europe better.”
Austria’s Relations with Russia: Business as Usual
Austria’s relations with Russia have been historically close and based on a feeling of mutual understanding of realpolitik. Because of its neutrality and position in the centre of Europe, Austria has long ago been a favorite country for Russian diplomacy and commercial trade in comparison to other EU states. With that being said, these relations between the two states came to a temporary halt with the ongoing war in Ukraine. In 2022, Austria joined numerous other Western countries in condemning Russia’s actions in Ukraine. As a result, Russia put Austria on its list of unfriendly countries towards the state. This change of political behavior from Austria created a sense of skepticism inside the country. The question of joining NATO and jeopardizing their historical neutrality was raised. Should Austria follow the same path as Sweden, another neutral country that was convinced that joining NATO was the only viable option for them?
Today, in 2024, just a few months before the European Parliament elections and the Austrian Parliament elections, the topic of neutrality is an important issue that might not change in the near future. However, the relations between Austria and Russia should be examined through the lens of all the political parties that aspire to govern Austria. What will the future bring for Austria’s foreign relations with its neighbor, and can the country play a crucial role as the lead EU nation negotiating with the Kremlin?
The leading ÖVP party has had numerous encounters with its Russian counterparts. For years now, under a conservative leadership from both sides, trade and diplomacy have flourished. All of this came to a halt in 2022, but the reality is that behind the scenes, not much has changed between the two states. Symbolically, the Chancellor of Austria, Karl Nehammer, was the first European leader to visit Moscow in 2022 to discuss an imminent end to the war in Ukraine. Although his visit did not bear fruits to stop the war because of pressure from the U.S to continue the ongoing conflict, his visit had a more fruitful impact on the economic relations between the two states. It is true that the current ÖVP led government of Austria has condemned the war in Ukraine and has offered humanitarian aid to the country, however, their business with Russia continues without interruptions.
It is important to note that as of 2024 there are a plethora of companies[22] from Austria operating in Russia, and that seems unlikely to change (Karnitschnig, 2023). The ÖVP had always had close ties with the Kremlin and those relations reached a peak in 2019 when Sebastien Kurz was Chancellor of Austria. His coalition with the FPÖ allowed his government to reach lucrative business deals with Russia, while also enforcing their diplomatic stance. Despite the Ibiza Affair scandal that forced Kurz out of office, the current ÖVP led government seems unlikely to jeopardize its relations with Russia, instead with the elections coming it seems that the ÖVP will walk on thin ice trying to remain on the beige side in both the European Union and Russia.
The collective leftist parties (SPÖ, Die Grünen and NEOS) follow a similar playbook with other major European leftist parties, supporting sanctions against Russia and showing their solidarity with Ukraine. However, even those parties are avoiding to suggest a possible end of Austria’s crucial neutrality by joining NATO or sending weapons to Ukraine (Silini, 2023). Their rhetoric might be pro-Ukrainian, but even those parties understand the importance of Russia as a trade partner. There are tensions between the two states with the ongoing war, the allegations of spy activities and expulsion of diplomats, but even Austria’s left understands that it is not worth it sacrificing their neutrality and economic ties with Russia. It seems more like a case of a barking dog that does not bite.
Finally, the party that is under the microscope regarding its relations with Russia is the FPÖ. For years, the FPÖ has been closely aligned with the Kremlin, supporting its policies and advocating for closer ties with Russia. However, since February 2022, the FPÖ has been careful with its actions and words regarding the war in Ukraine. Despite that, they have managed to still act more favorably towards Russia by addressing the problems that are created from the EU and affect the common Austria. A classic populist maneuver that aims to point out the actions of European elites and their consequences against Austria’s lower and middle class. A maneuver that works miracles for the FPÖ. By drawing attention towards the counterproductive consequences of the schism between Austria and Russia, the FPÖ hopes for its Eurosceptic right-wing agenda to reach more people within the country.
As it was mentioned above, Austria has numerous companies operating within Russia that generate a considerable amount of capital. In addition, Austria is still quite dependable on Russia for its energy supplies, especially natural gas. These are two major reasons why the FPÖ continues to address the catastrophic consequences of a failed partnership between the two states. However, unlike other Austria parties, the FPÖ has common ideological stances with the Kremlin. In 2014, for example, when Russia annexed Crimea, the FPÖ was one of the first parties to condemn EU sanctions towards Russia. Instead of condemnation, they supported Russia’s actions and even bolstered up their relations by signing a pact of cooperation pact with United Russia[23] in 2016.
Regarding the current war in Ukraine, the FPÖ has adopted a different approach. Instead of expressing solidarity with Ukraine and condemnation for Russia’s actions, the FPÖ has criticized EU’s support for Ukraine, which they have repeatedly called a corrupt nation. For them, this is not a war of aggression but a proxy war instigated by the Biden administration and the European elites in Brussels. As a result, their stance echoes even more vocal than other parties’ the need for Austria to keep its neutrality and avoid a direct clash with Russia. So far, their rhetoric seems to bear fruits, as they are now the leading party in the polls. Despite the Ibiza Affair that rocked the foundation of the party, the FPÖ has impressively recovered and has a great chance of winning the Austrian elections. A possible leadership of the FPÖ will result in a direct class with the elite establishment of Brussels, a close cooperation with other major conservative parties in Europe and a more meticulous approach towards neighboring Russia.
In conclusion, the elections in Austria have the power not only to change the course of the country but also the entire course of the European Union. The ÖVP might not lead the polls at the moment but it is definitely a considerable force in Austrian politics as it has been for decades. The SPÖ’s inability to consolidate power to rival the ÖVP has been reflected at recent polls which find the party currently in third place. It has a strong presence in Austrian politics, but this year they might see themselves standing on the sides. This is not solely because of their inability to rival ÖVP but also because of their inability to unite Austria’s left. It is possible to see a huge split between voters of the left not only between the SPÖ, the Greens and NEOS but also between two smaller parties, the KPÖ[24] and BIER[25](Swaton & Noyan, 2023) .
The FPÖ has the best chances of winning the elections, as it leads the national polls and its populist, anti-EU elite rhetoric has reached the hearts and minds of the common Austrian. A possible outcome of the elections this fall will be a coalition government between the FPÖ and ÖVP. The only question is whether it is a possibility for Herbert Kickl to become Chancellor of Austria. This is a scenario that the ÖVP would like to avoid. Thus, the second possibility for the outcome of Austrian elections is a reconstructed coalition government between the ÖVP and the SPÖ. Although with the current obsession of Andreas Babler positioning his party against the ÖVP that seems very unlikely.
Finally, the scenario that has the lowest chances of succeeding is the coalition between the SPÖ, the Greens and NEOS. The polls for the Greens and NEOS are not looking very promising and their best hope is for a positive result in the European Parliament elections and, as it was mentioned before, the inability of a united leftist front has shattered any chances of this coalition. Not to mention that the ÖVP would not be bypassed so easily. In the end, we can see one familiar pattern in all possibilities. If anything is going to happen in Austrian politics and as a chain reaction in European politics it will have to go by the ÖVP.
[1] Enacted on October 26, 1955, the Declaration of Neutrality was a declaration passed by the Austrian Parliament proclaiming the neutrality of Austria to any future military alliances or establishments of foreign military bases in its territory.
[2]ÖVP: Österreichische Volkspartei (Austrian People’s Party).
[3] SPÖ: Sozialdemokratische Partei (Social Democratic Party of Austria).
[4] FPÖ: Freiheitliche Partei Österreichs (Freedom Party of Austria).
[5] GRUNË: Die Grünen – Die Grüne Alternative (The Greens, The Green Alternative).
[6] NEOS: Das Neue Österreich und Liberales Forum (The New Austria and Liberal Forum).
[7] The Christian Social Party (Christlichsoziale Partei) was an influential Catholic conservative party that operated in Austria from 1891 until 1934.
[8] The Ibiza Affair was a political scandal involving Heinz-Christian Strache, former leader of the FPÖ and former Vice Chancellor of Austria and Johann Gudenus, former deputy leader of the FPÖ. On 17th of May 2019, in a secretly recorded video, both men appeared to be approached by the supposed niece of Russian businessman Igor Makarov, promising positive news coverage and support in exchange for government contracts.
[9] A city and municipality in the district of Bade in Lower Austria.
[10] The Federation of Independents (Verband der Unabhängigen, VdU), was a German nationalistic party in Austria. It operated from 1949 until 1955.
[11] Jörg Haider (1950-2008) was an Austrian politician, former governor of the region of Carinthia and a long-time leader of the FPÖ.
[12] Herbert Kickl is an Austrian politician and current leader of the Freedom Party of Austria. He previously served as Minister of Interior (2017-2019).
[13] FIDESZ: Magyar Polgári Szövetség (Hungarian Civic Alliance), is the current governing political party in Hungary lead by Viktor Orbán.
[14] Based on a recent poll conducted between 15 and 17 of April 2024 by the polling firm Market-Lazarsfeld.
[15] Werner Kogler is an Austrian politician for the Green Party. He has served as Vice-Chancellor of Austria and as Minister for Arts, Culture, the Civil Service and Sport.
[16] Lena Schilling is an environmental activist from Austria, mostly known for her active participation in the Friday’s for Future Movement in the city of Vienna in 2018.
[17] The Liberal Forum (Liberales Forum LiF), was a centrist political party in Austria. In 2014 they merged together with NEOS-The New Austria to create the New Austria and Liberal Forum. The Liberal Forum was split from the FPÖ in 1993.
[18] The analysis was provided by the University of Vienna, political scientists Marcelo Jenny, Silvia Kritzinger and David Johann (ZParl Zeitschrift für Parlamentsfragen, Volume 47, 2016).
[19]Beate Meinl-Reisinger is an Austrian politician and current leader of the NEOS party. She has been a member of the National Council from 2015 to 2018 and a member of the Gemeinderat and Landtag of Vienna.
[20] Helmut Brandstätter is an Austrian politician, journalist and author. He has been a member of the National Council since 2019 and since January 2024, he has been the lead candidate for the NEOS party in the European Parliament elections.
[21] https://www.aldeparty.eu/neos_launch_eu_election_campaign.
[22] Some notable companies include Red Bull, the Raiffeisen Bank and oil and gas conglomerate OMV (Österreichische Mineralölverwaltung Aktiengesellschaft). At least 30% of the OMV is owed by the Austrian government.
[23] United Russia (Единая Россия) is the ruling political party in Russia. It holds 325 out of the 450 seats in the Russian Parliament. Its current Chairman is Dmitry Medvedev, former President of the Russian Federation.
[24] KPÖ: Kommunistische Partei Österreichs (The Communist Party of Austria).
[25] BIER: Die Bierpartei (The Beer Party). A satirical political party founded in 2014.
