“Considering our shared goal of an effective fight against terrorism in the Sahel, particularly in the Liptako-Gourma region, we have decided to take a significant step toward greater unity……in the current geopolitical context, the AES represents the most sub-regional group in the fight against terrorism, especially given ECOWAS’s lack of involvement in this struggle”—statement establishing the Confederation of Sahel States.
On July 2024, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger declared the establishment of the Confederation of Sahel States. This step comes eleven months after the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), a defense pact formed to combat terrorism within these states. In a joint statement, the leaders of the three states declared the establishment of a unified Sahel states force, independent instruments for financing economic and social policies by creating an investment bank and facilitating the free movement of people, goods, and services within its borders.
What has AES achieved so far since its formation?
On January 12, 2024, armed men abducted over 60 people, foraging for food in the department of Arbinda, Sahel region, an area controlled by Al-Qaeda-linked Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin, JNIM but where fighters from ISGS also carried out attacks. A week later, the Burkinabe information agency announced the captives identified as 39 children and 27 women had been found alive. Arbinda residents have been battling extreme hunger as a direct result of a siege by the Islamist armed groups, according to a report from Human Rights Watch.
There is an increase of people facing acute food insecurity from nearly 700,000 in 2019 to 2.7 million in 2024. Factors such as insecurity, declines in agricultural production, drought in some of the regions, and inflation have contributed to such a high figure. Burkina Faso proved less achievement so far in food security.
Despite 50,000 Burkinabe joined the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland (VDP) and recruited 3000 Soldiers and 1400 gendarmes to reinforce the security and defense forces, over two million people are still displaced, as in 2023 more than 8,000 people were reported killed fighting the insurgency. This figure is twice the number of people killed in 2022. Although The Burkinabe government managed to retake 10 percent of the territory that was previously controlled by Non-State armed groups, still 40 percent of the country’s territory is under control by these Non-state armed groups.
In 2023, the Burkinabe government established the Patriotic Support Fund (PSF), to self-finance the fight against terrorism. The fund worth 100 billion CFA francs (about 164 million U.S Dollars) was to be supplied from levies on drinks, gambling, telecommunications, mining, and tobacco trade. The funds collected led to a rise in the defense and security state budget from 20.27 % in 2022 to 28.42% in 2023, while it is expected to rise to 29.49% in 2024.
Due to the improvement of the security situation, revenue mobilization efforts, and expenditure control, the Burkinabe GDP rose from 1.8 percent in 2022 to 3.6 percent in 2023, while it is projected to rise to 5.5 percent in 2024. Inflation averaged 0.7 percent in 2023, down from 14.1 percent in 2022, and is projected to stabilize around 2 percent going forward.
Among other things, Captain Ibrahim Traore is praised as a patriotic, Pan-Africanist, and dedicated leader by many of their fellow military personnel and countrymen within his two years of his leadership. This “good feeling” among Burkinabes may allow him to fulfill his vision as support seems guaranteed, although Burkina Faso leads as an African country with the most successful coup.
In neighboring Mali, between 2022 and 2023, the violations and attacks on the right to life rose by almost 28 percent while the violations and attacks on human rights rose by almost 86 percent, while the gender-based violence rose by 12.5 percent. Nearly 8.8 million people are in dire of humanitarian assistance, while over 575,000 people are forced from their homes, including 375,000 internally displaced people and 205,000 refugees residing in neighboring countries.
But, there is another story of Mali where economic growth rose from 3.7% in 2022 to 4.3% in 2023. The major contribution to such tremendous growth was due to cotton production, gold trade, proper mobilization of public resources, high control of government spending, and the revival of the investment sector after the sanctions were lifted by ECOWAS. The lifting of sanctions led to a drop in the inflation rate from 9.7 in 2022 to 2.1 in 2023, as 34.9% of food merchandise in Mali is imported from ECOWAS member states. Despite the drop in the inflation rate, the food cost remained high and contributed to food insecurity. The PPP has increased very slightly while the poverty rate fell just from 45.5% in 2022 to 45.3% in 2023.
As for Mali, the sense of patriotism mostly in youth is high, this signifies the support from the majority of Malian countrymen.
Niger…An ally to keep, an ally to watch!
Among other AES member states, Niger poses a more crucial position due to its possession of Uranium and military geostrategic position within the Sahel region. As of 2023, Niger was the seventh largest global producer with accounts for 4% global uranium production. With the recent arms race between developed nations, possession of uranium enrichment for the race state may somehow determine who might be the victor. When Niger is involved; there is a little different treatment compared with other AES member states. For instance, on February 2024, ECOWAS member states lifted sanctions on Niger, just a few months after it has imposed it, although ECOWAS claimed the lifting was “pure on humanitarian grounds”.
Before the July 2023 coup, Niger was the most important U.S. military hub, the largest recipient of the U.S. military AESistance in West Africa, and the second largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. It took four months (October 2024) for the U.S. to officially declare the ouster of President Mohamed Bazoum as a coup. Air Base 201, a drone base that’s located at Agadez in Central Niger, was the second-largest U.S Base in Africa while the Northern part of Niger was strategically located for surveillance of Libya. Niger was considered the “NATO Hub” in the Sahel, bordering 7 countries but most important, Libya.
After the coup, France had been pushing for military intervention through some of the ECOWAS member states, although the U.S., Italy, and Germany couldn’t buy the idea. Other neighboring countries such as Nigeria and Algeria also didn’t approve of the military intervention due to the political, economic, and military position in their countries. Through the geopolitical, economic, and military global position, Niger stands in a different stance from other AES member states. Taking Niger out of AES may be the first Western global player target rather than pushing Niger more towards Burkina Faso and Mali.
What if everything goes right for AES
The Coups
Due to the geostrategic position, there may be no any direct foreign military intervention to the AES. The only possible solution will be a regime change mostly through a military coup or civil uprising. Recently, Burkina Faso announced the extension of military rule for five more years until 2029, while neighboring Mali issued a decree suspending all political activities until further notice citing the need to restore public order. The decision came as it had previously canceled all issues concerning the election in 2023. In Niger, Gen. Abdourahmane Tchiani during the coup announcement, stated that the government will be returned to civilian rule within three years.
On September 2023, the was a coup attempt in Burkina Faso which had been foiled, and the coup plotters arrested. In January 2024, there was another coup attempt that was crashed by the Burkinabe military. In 2022, the Mali government thwarted the attempted coup that was stated as it was supported by certain Western States. There is no reported coup so far in Niger.
In this case, these countries will be under coup attempts as long as these governments are in power. Any successful coup in either country may bring AES back to its knees as any coup will have foreign power behind it.
Russia, the Major geopolitical player
The expel of France, the U.S.A, Germany, and Italy in the Sahel, gave room for Russia to become a major player in security, economy, and trade substituting the West.
After France’s military troops withdrew from Mali in 2022, Russia took the chance. Previously Russia had a very successful operation in the Central African Republic (CAR), a country that was under turmoil for more than 20 years. Unlike France, Russia has been praised in CAR as a “trusted and reliable friend” due to its military impact and harmonization.
There are reports on Russia’s Wagner group fighting alongside the Mali army against Tuaregs separatist rebels and al-Qaeda linked-militants. Among AES states, Mali is the leading country with more anti-government militants from separatists to terrorists. As in CAR, according to the Survey 84 percent of the Malian population has a positive opinion of Russia. If Mali’s army with Russian support managed to keep at peace the territory, it would be counted as the most profound victory in the Sahel for more than 30 years. The only thing that stands between Col. AESimi Goita and Power, and Russia and geopolitical influence in West Africa, is peace in Mali.
In another case, Russia has to ensure “his ally” Gen. Halifa Haftar succeeds and controls Libya, as Libya’s conflicts directly fuel the Tuaregs separatist rebels.
In April 2024, Russia sent its military trainers to Niger to reinforce the country’s air defense system to ensure complete control of the airspace. A few months before, it was reported the contingent of Russian military personnel arrived with weapons and equipment in the Capital, Ouagadougou.
Despite of the military assistance, Russia has been providing, the so-called “humanitarian assistance” of 200,000 tonnes of free grain in six African countries including Burkina Faso and Mali. Also, there is a deal signed between Russia and Burkina Faso to build a nuclear power plant to increase electricity supplies. As for now, only 21% of Burkinabe are connected to power as it stands among countries with the highest electricity cost in Africa. Other emerging major players in the Sahel are China, Turkey, and the United Arab Emirates.
ECOWAS
There are some claims that the West African regional bloc ECOWAS has been a pro-France community. As for now, ECOWAS seems to have lost its influence among Western African countries as three countries declared withdrawal from the membership (AES member states) while Guinea under Col. Mamady Doumboya has been in a tense relationship with ECOWAS. Guinea was once under sanctions from ECOWAS before being lifted earlier this year. As France begins losing its influence in Western Africa, there on ongoing sentiments of civilians in those countries pressuring their governments to seek alternative partners rather than France. A good example was Senegal, the sentiments led to the election of President Baessirou Diomaye Faye. If the AES succeeds, it will reshape the ECOWAS community.
Shortly, possibly Guinea would apply and join the AES. Let’s just hold our cards closer to our chest and see who plays next.
