The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) faces a difficult diplomatic decision as regional leaders prepare to reconsider Myanmar’s exclusion from high-level meetings, despite continuing violence and limited progress towards restoring civilian rule. Growing bilateral engagement by several member states, particularly Thailand, is putting pressure on the bloc to reconsider its five-year restrictions and exposing divisions over how to deal with Myanmar’s military leadership.
ASEAN leaders will discuss the issue at their November 15–17 summit in Manila. The central challenge is whether renewed engagement can encourage progress towards peace or whether easing restrictions would effectively reward the military government without meaningful political concessions.
Myanmar has remained in turmoil since February 2021, when military chief Min Aung Hlaing overthrew the elected government. The coup triggered widespread armed resistance and an ongoing civil war that has killed more than 100,000 people. The military authorities have since been excluded from ASEAN summits and foreign ministers’ meetings because they failed to implement the bloc’s Five-Point Consensus, the diplomatic framework established in response to the coup.
Why Is ASEAN Reconsidering Myanmar’s Exclusion?
The pressure for a policy reassessment has increased following Myanmar’s military-backed elections in December and January. The Union Solidarity and Development Party, aligned with the military, won overwhelmingly in a political environment without a viable opposition.
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Although the elections have not resolved questions surrounding Myanmar’s political legitimacy, several ASEAN members have used the outcome as an opening for renewed bilateral engagement. Laos, Thailand, Vietnam, Cambodia and Malaysia have all welcomed Min Aung Hlaing on official visits this year.
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim also pledged in October to work towards Myanmar’s reintegration into ASEAN. Thailand has gone further by openly advocating an easing of restrictions on Myanmar’s participation in regional meetings.
Following a visit to Myanmar, Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow said Bangkok wanted Myanmar’s foreign minister to participate in ASEAN foreign ministers’ meetings. He expressed hope that sufficient progress could be achieved to allow a decision on Myanmar’s participation by Thailand’s ASEAN chairmanship in 2028 at the latest.
Thailand argues that direct engagement with Myanmar’s policymakers would allow ASEAN to communicate its concerns to the people making decisions. However, Sihasak acknowledged that any change would require agreement among the bloc’s foreign ministers.
The debate therefore concerns more than Myanmar’s attendance at diplomatic meetings. It raises a broader question about whether ASEAN should prioritise engagement with the military authorities or maintain restrictions until measurable progress is achieved.
The Five-Point Consensus Faces Growing Pressure
ASEAN’s approach to Myanmar remains formally anchored in the Five-Point Consensus, which calls for an immediate end to violence, inclusive political dialogue, humanitarian assistance and mediation by an ASEAN special envoy with access to all parties.
However, implementation has made little progress. Fighting continues across Myanmar, millions of people remain displaced, and attempts to bring the military authorities and armed opposition groups into negotiations have yet to produce a breakthrough.
Political developments have also complicated ASEAN’s position. Aung San Suu Kyi, Myanmar’s former civilian leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate, has remained detained since the coup. She was transferred to house arrest in April following the military-backed election, but access to her remains severely restricted.
Although a Red Cross official was permitted to meet her in August, no foreign leader or diplomatic envoy has been able to do so despite repeated requests.
The Philippines, which currently holds ASEAN’s rotating chairmanship, has attempted to maintain diplomatic engagement. Foreign Secretary Theresa Lazaro, serving as the bloc’s special envoy on Myanmar, visited the country in October on a humanitarian mission.
Philippine officials have also confirmed that ASEAN leaders will issue a negotiated document reviewing implementation of the Five-Point Consensus at the Manila summit. The document could provide an indication of whether member states remain committed to the existing framework or are moving towards a different approach.
Political scientist Thitinan Pongsudhirak of Bangkok’s Chulalongkorn University argues that the consensus has been overtaken by developments on the ground. Its limited implementation has raised questions about whether the existing diplomatic framework can still deliver meaningful results.
Thailand’s Engagement Reflects Regional Security Concerns
Thailand’s increasingly assertive approach is partly driven by its direct exposure to the consequences of Myanmar’s conflict. The two countries share a long land border, making instability inside Myanmar an immediate concern for Bangkok.
Continued fighting creates risks involving cross-border security, trade, migrant workers and energy cooperation. Thailand also has practical reasons to maintain communication with Myanmar’s military authorities, particularly when violence threatens to spill into neighbouring territory.
Bangkok has repeatedly offered to facilitate talks between Myanmar’s government and ethnic armed groups operating along the border. Sihasak said Myanmar had agreed in principle to send a delegation to such discussions, although no date has been established.
Nevertheless, Thailand’s policy has broader implications for ASEAN. Thitinan describes Bangkok’s approach as calibrated re-engagement, arguing that it has encouraged other regional capitals to reconsider their own positions.
He has warned against treating renewed diplomatic contact as unconditional acceptance. Any easing of restrictions, he argues, should be linked to concrete steps such as releasing political prisoners, allowing humanitarian access and ending military airstrikes.
This distinction is particularly important because bilateral engagement does not automatically translate into a change in ASEAN’s collective policy.
ASEAN Divisions Could Complicate the Next Phase
The different approaches adopted by member states are testing ASEAN’s commitment to consensus-based decision-making. While Thailand and several other governments favour greater engagement, others remain concerned that premature reintegration could weaken pressure on Myanmar’s military leadership.
Human Rights Watch has urged ASEAN to maintain restrictions and increase pressure on the military to end abuses and pursue a transition towards civilian rule.
Singapore, which is due to assume the ASEAN chairmanship next year, will inherit the challenge of reconciling these competing positions. The bloc must balance the practical advantages of maintaining diplomatic channels with the risk of undermining its own commitments to political dialogue and an end to violence.
Simon Tay, chairman of the Singapore Institute of International Affairs, argues that ASEAN members can pursue different diplomatic approaches without abandoning their common framework. In his view, some governments can engage more directly while others maintain pressure, provided both approaches remain consistent with the Five-Point Consensus.
However, this strategy carries risks. If Myanmar’s military authorities can exploit differences between member states, they may gain diplomatic advantages without making significant concessions. A divided ASEAN could also struggle to maintain a credible and coordinated response.
Another unresolved issue concerns the future of the ASEAN special envoy. The position currently changes annually with the bloc’s rotating chairmanship, limiting continuity in diplomatic engagement. A Southeast Asian diplomat has indicated that discussions have included the possibility of appointing a permanent envoy, while Myanmar has reportedly expressed interest in abolishing the role altogether.
Without agreement on either proposal, the existing arrangement is likely to remain.
What Happens Next?
The November summit in Manila will test whether ASEAN can maintain a common position on Myanmar as individual members pursue closer relations with its military authorities. A review of the Five-Point Consensus may provide an opportunity to reconsider diplomatic methods, but it does not necessarily mean that restrictions will be lifted.
The more difficult question is what conditions Myanmar must meet before its political representatives can return to high-level regional meetings. Regular access to Aung San Suu Kyi, reduced violence and expanded humanitarian assistance could provide practical benchmarks for assessing progress.
ASEAN also needs to determine whether its current approach can accommodate greater bilateral engagement without allowing the military leadership to bypass collective diplomatic pressure.
The bloc faces a choice between maintaining restrictions that have delivered limited results and pursuing engagement that could weaken its position if not tied to clear conditions. Neither approach guarantees progress.
Ultimately, Myanmar’s reintegration should depend on demonstrable improvements rather than diplomatic momentum alone. As Singapore prepares to take over the ASEAN chairmanship, the bloc’s ability to balance pragmatism with political principles will be central to preserving its unity and credibility.
With information from Reuters.
