Kyiv Faces Fresh Strike Fears as Reports Point to Possible Russian Escalation

UN monitors recorded civilian casualties in Kyiv on 16 of the first 24 days of September, the highest monthly frequency since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to Eagle Intelligence Reports.

Ukrainian lawmakers have been instructed to leave Kyiv and relocate to areas near the Romanian and Hungarian borders until October 17, amid intelligence that Russia plans to expand its strikes on the capital in early October, Eagle Intelligence Reports reported on September 29, citing an unnamed source.

David Arakhamia, who heads the ruling Servant of the People party’s parliamentary faction, directed most lawmakers to move to areas near Ukraine’s western and southern borders, the report said. The instruction followed intelligence pointing to a broader Russian campaign against Kyiv beginning in early October, according to the report. Arakhamia led Ukraine’s delegation in talks with Russia in the early weeks of the full-scale invasion in 2022 and is a central figure in maintaining President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s parliamentary majority.

Eagle Intelligence Reports said it could not independently verify whether the directive was issued. Neither Arakhamia nor the Verkhovna Rada has publicly announced any relocation.

The Servant of the People faction denied the report on Wednesday. “This information is completely untrue,” faction spokesperson Yulia Paliichuk told LIGA.net, adding that neither Speaker Ruslan Stefanchuk nor Arakhamia had issued any such instructions.

Stay ahead of the geopolitical week.

MD Briefing delivers expert analysis across five global fronts — the Indo-Pacific, energy, geoeconomics, European security, and the Middle East — every Monday morning. Free.

“Full-Scale War” and New Russian Tactics

Eagle Intelligence reported that the warning followed weeks of intensifying Russian strikes on Kyiv. Daytime air raid alerts in major Ukrainian cities have grown longer since late August, forcing shops to close and workers to take shelter, the outlet reported.

UN monitors recorded civilian casualties in Kyiv on 16 of the first 24 days of September, the highest monthly frequency since the start of the full-scale invasion, according to Eagle Intelligence Reports.

Overnight on September 23 to 24, Russia fired three waves of ballistic missiles at Kyiv along with 282 drones, the Ukrainian Air Force said, according to the National Security Journal.

Russia has increasingly used jet-powered Shahed drones against Kyiv. The drones fly faster than earlier propeller-driven models and can reach altitudes of about seven kilometres, beyond easy reach of Ukraine’s mobile air defence crews, National Security Journal reported.

Russia’s production target for jet-powered Shaheds this year is 24,000, of which only a small fraction has been used so far, according to Eagle Intelligence Reports. Russia can launch more than 100 ballistic missiles a month, while Ukraine is short of interceptors for its Patriot air defence systems, the outlet reported. Zelenskyy announced an agreement on Patriot interceptor missiles for Ukraine on September 24, Ukrainska Pravda reported.

Fears of a Harsh Winter and Unrelenting Attacks

On September 22, Zelenskyy said Ukraine had intelligence that Russia was preparing a new massive attack, the Kyiv Independent reported. He gave no further details. One Ukrainian official has predicted relentless strikes on the capital through October, according to Eagle Intelligence Reports.

Kyiv relies on large central heating plants that are hard to protect, raising concern as winter approaches, the outlet reported. In September 2025, a Russian strike set fire to the roof of the Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv, the first time the building was hit during the war. An explosion in January 2025 damaged parliamentary offices, according to a statement from parliament.

Zelenskyy said on September 25 that the United States had proposed a technical-level trilateral meeting with Ukraine and Russia in the United Arab Emirates, Reuters reported. Kyiv is waiting for Washington to propose a date, Zelenskyy said. Arakhamia has played a role in the renewed diplomacy, according to Eagle Intelligence Reports, which said previous diplomatic contacts had brought little relief from Russian strikes on Kyiv.

Latest Articles