The Rise of the AfD and the Political Fragmentation Reflected in the Vote

The election in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September marked the first sign of a major political shift. According to the official preliminary results, the AfD won 43.8% of the party-list vote, an increase of 23 percentage points compared with 2021, while the CDU fell to just 17.2%, a decline of 19.9 percentage points. The SPD received 9.3%, while Die Linke won 8.6%. The victory in Saxony-Anhalt sent shockwaves through German politics.

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the results on 20 September further reinforced this trend. The AfD won 38.2%, emerging as the largest party with 32 seats, while the SPD received 35.5% and won 29 seats. Die Linke and the Greens each secured five seats. The CDU received only 4.9%, failing to cross the 5% threshold and consequently losing its representation in the state parliament. Voter turnout reached 78.1%. This represented the CDU’s most severe defeat in the state since the post-war period, after the party had won 13% in the 2021 election. Mecklenburg-Vorpommern had previously been a state where the CDU maintained a relatively stable political position, and the result therefore demonstrated the party’s fundamental weakening in German politics.

In Berlin, the picture was markedly different. Die Linke emerged as the leading political force, while the CDU fell to around 19% and the AfD received approximately 16%. The official results in Berlin showed voter turnout at 74.2%, an increase of 11.3 percentage points compared with the previous election.

It can be seen that the AfD has become one of the major political forces in Germany. The party has become the largest opposition force facing the government since Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s administration officially took office. The far-right AfD is expected to continue exerting pressure on the incumbent government. At the same time, the AfD has also been viewed as a reference point for other parties seeking to adjust their approaches to better reflect the preferences of the electorate.

This may also indicate the resurgence of several parties that had weakened during the previous electoral cycle. Die Linke, for example, suffered a major defeat with only 4.9% in 2021, before rising to 8.8% in 2025 and subsequently achieving 25.7% of the vote in Berlin in 2026. The BSW, a left-wing populist party, has also adopted some approaches similar to those of the AfD and has obtained a significant share of the vote despite having been established only slightly more than a year earlier.

The AfD and the Changing Political Balance

The AfD is currently the most important factor reshaping Germany’s party system.

The results in Saxony-Anhalt and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern show that the AfD has transformed from a protest force at the regional level into one of the largest political forces in several eastern German states.

What is particularly noteworthy is not only its share of the vote but also the geographical scope of its influence.

The AfD is particularly strong in eastern Germany, where issues such as income, an ageing population, industrial employment, energy prices, immigration, the cost of living, relations with Russia, and support for Ukraine have a significant influence on voters’ choices. In addition, eastern Germany was heavily influenced by the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe during the Cold War. This has contributed to a very significant level of support for Russia among parts of the German electorate. A number of AfD members have been invited to visit areas of eastern Ukraine and have acted as observers during Russian elections.

However, the AfD still faces a major limitation: its ability to translate electoral results into executive power. The BSW, which originated in the eastern German states and has been subject to accusations of Russian influence, has also refused to cooperate with the party. The established parties continue to maintain a policy of refusing to form coalitions with the AfD, commonly referred to as the “firewall” (Brandmauer).

Therefore, even if the AfD emerges as the largest party in terms of votes, forming a government still requires the participation of other parties. Following the Mecklenburg-Vorpommern election, the AfD still does not have sufficient partners to form a government.

The Causes of Deepening Political Divisions in German Politics

First, the economic situation is a factor contributing to political polarization among Germany’s political forces. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government came to power with commitments to promote reforms, restore economic growth, and enhance the competitiveness of the German economy. However, the recovery process has not yet produced clear improvements in the living conditions of a significant segment of the population.

In September 2026, Germany’s Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs assessed that the economy was showing signs of slowing in the third quarter. Industrial production in July fell by 2.2% compared with the previous month and by 3.3% year on year. Meanwhile, inflation reached 2.9% in August, largely due to rising energy prices. Unemployment also exceeded three million.

This has created a political paradox for the Merz government: economic reforms require time to produce results, while the costs of the reform process are felt by voters immediately. Issues such as energy prices, housing costs, pensions, taxation, health insurance, and working hours have therefore become issues with a direct impact on voters.

In eastern Germany in particular, pensions and income have greater political significance because many people in the region have lower levels of accumulated wealth than those in western Germany. Reuters has reported that pension reforms and proposals requiring workers to work longer have generated significant reactions in the region.

Second, geopolitical conflicts have directly affected political divisions within Germany. Since the Russia–Ukraine conflict began in 2022, opposition to assistance for Ukraine has increased within Germany, with the AfD and BSW at the forefront of this position. At the same time, several parties have called for continued assistance to Ukraine, including the Greens, the SPD since the collapse of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government, and the CDU/CSU.

However, amid domestic economic difficulties, the views of the population are increasingly reflected through electoral choices. This demonstrates the significant impact of international conflicts on Germany’s domestic development, particularly the Russia–Ukraine conflict since 2022, US–China strategic competition, and conflicts in the Middle East.

Germany Continues to Play a Major Leading Role in Europe

Despite internal disagreements and political divisions, Germany will continue to play a leading role in Europe. The government of Chancellor Friedrich Merz has three core objectives, among which strengthening relations with China and bringing the United States back toward Europe are two key priorities.

Germany’s political tradition also demonstrates a degree of continuity in foreign policy. Should Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s government collapse, the subsequent government would continue to pursue the general direction established by its predecessor.

China currently maintains close relations with Russia, providing economic support and expanding cooperation in energy and defense, helping Russia withstand economic sanctions. Meanwhile, although the United States has exerted pressure through tariffs under President Donald Trump, the deliberate effort to engage China is intended to encourage Washington to pay greater attention to the European continent, since the absence of the superpower could create a strategic vacuum that China and Russia could exploit to exert greater pressure on countries in the region.

The Decisive Elections in 2027

The year 2026 has demonstrated deep political divisions. In 2027, several German states will hold elections, including Schleswig-Holstein on 18 April 2027; Saarland on 18 April 2027; North Rhine-Westphalia on 25 April 2027; Bremen on 30 May 2027; and Lower Saxony on 26 September 2027. These elections will be an important period for assessing whether the polarization and restructuring of the party system observed in the 2026 elections will continue to spread.

It is important to note that not all states have experienced the same degree of political volatility. Previous election results show that some states have undergone major changes in the balance of political forces.

Schleswig-Holstein

In Schleswig-Holstein, the CDU won as much as 43.4% in the 2022 election, while the SPD received 16.0%, the Greens 18.3%, and the FDP 6.4%. The AfD received only 4.4% and failed to enter the state parliament. Schleswig-Holstein is therefore one of the states to watch in order to assess whether the AfD can disrupt the relatively stable political structure in northern Germany. At the same time, the 2027 result will show whether the CDU can maintain its strong position or whether it will be affected by changes taking place at the federal level.

Saarland

Saarland has a different political structure. In 2022, the SPD won 43.5%, well ahead of the CDU at 28.5%; the AfD received only 5.7%, the Greens 5.0%, and the FDP 4.8%. Saarland is therefore an important case for assessing the SPD’s ability to protect its traditional stronghold.

Following the SPD’s political difficulties in other states, particularly Berlin, the question is whether Saarland will continue to maintain a political structure favorable to the SPD or begin to experience a shift. More importantly, it remains to be seen whether the AfD’s influence through social media in recent years will have a significant impact in breaking up the SPD’s traditional stronghold.

North Rhine-Westphalia (Nordrhein-Westfalen)

North Rhine-Westphalia is particularly significant because it is Germany’s most populous state. In the 2022 election, the CDU received 35.7%, the SPD 26.7%, the Greens 18.2%, and the FDP only 5.9%; the AfD received 5.4%.

This will be an important test for both the CDU and SPD in western Germany. If the AfD continues to expand from the eastern states into the more populous western regions, North Rhine-Westphalia will be one of the places that could demonstrate the extent of this expansion.

In particular, if the AfD becomes dominant in the state, the party could potentially make greater demands for positions within the government.

Conversely, if the CDU and SPD maintain relatively strong positions, this could indicate that the current polarization remains uneven between eastern and western Germany.

Bremen

Bremen presents a different case. In 2023, the SPD came first with 29.8%, followed by the CDU with 26.2%, the Greens with 11.9%, and Die Linke with 10.9%. The FDP received 5.1%.

Die Linke has already maintained a relatively significant position in Bremen. Therefore, the 2027 result will be particularly useful in assessing whether the resurgence of Die Linke in Berlin in 2026 is primarily a phenomenon specific to the capital or whether it can spread to other urban centers.

Lower Saxony (Niedersachsen)

Lower Saxony is also noteworthy because the SPD previously led with 33.4% in 2022, followed by the CDU with 28.1%, the Greens with 14.5%, and the AfD with 11.0%.

This is one of the most important states for observing how the SPD and AfD compete in western Germany. Unlike Saxony-Anhalt or Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, the AfD has never achieved a dominant position in Lower Saxony. The 2027 result will therefore help assess whether the sharp increase in support for the AfD in 2026 will expand further into western Germany.

Among the states mentioned above, North Rhine-Westphalia will be one of the most important tests for the AfD in 2027. If the election results continue to reflect an increase in support for the party, the AfD could consolidate its position as a major political force in a populous western state with considerable political weight.

However, the issue is not simply the number of seats won by the AfD, but its ability to translate those electoral results into executive power. The Brandmauer policy maintained by the established parties, particularly the CDU, remains an important obstacle to AfD participation in government. If the AfD’s influence continues to increase significantly in the state, there could be a stronger basis for the Brandmauer within the CDU to come under greater pressure.

In a more distant scenario, AfD participation in government could become a matter of consideration if the party’s vote share in North Rhine-Westphalia and other states becomes sufficiently large to alter the balance of power and the governing coalition or coalition of parties supporting the largest party is unable to exercise sufficient influence in the Bundestag.

The position that the AfD could seek is the post of Federal Minister of the Interior, as this position can influence both domestic and foreign-related aspects of German security policy. Its current responsibilities include domestic security, the Federal Police, migration and integration, constitutional protection, civil protection, cybersecurity, and public administration, as well as combating illegal arms trafficking and terrorism.

These areas demonstrate the intersection between domestic and foreign affairs, particularly because many transnational issues fall under the responsibility of the Federal Ministry of the Interior. Armin Laschet, a former CDU chairman, recently acknowledged that the strategy of isolating the AfD had not achieved its intended objective, while nevertheless stating clearly that the CDU should not give ministerial positions to the AfD. This makes the scenario a matter that can reasonably be considered.[5] Laschet’s statement indicates that the possibility of the AfD achieving a major electoral breakthrough and obtaining positions within a future government has entered the political debate.

It can therefore be seen that Germany continues to experience significant political changes. These developments stem in part from external conflicts that have affected domestic political issues. Accordingly, political divisions among the parties are likely to continue, while tensions within the CDU/CSU–SPD governing coalition may increase as the CDU/CSU faces weakening support. The AfD will continue to exert pressure on German politics, particularly in North Rhine-Westphalia, with the aim of seeking a position such as Federal Minister of the Interior in a future government.