China’s sweeping purge of senior military commanders is raising new questions about the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army to conduct a major conflict, even as the shake-up appears to have further tightened President Xi Jinping’s control over the country’s armed forces.
The latest development came this week when China expelled two of its most senior military leaders, Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli, from the Communist Party and the military. Both had been removed from their positions on the Central Military Commission after investigations that began in January. Chinese authorities accused the two men of serious disciplinary violations, political disloyalty and corruption.
The purge is being closely watched by regional military officials and security analysts because it comes as China continues to modernize the PLA and increase military activity around Taiwan and contested areas of the South and East China Seas.
The immediate question is whether the removal of so many senior commanders could disrupt China’s ability to coordinate increasingly complex military operations.
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The longer term question is whether Xi believes tighter political control over the PLA is worth any short term disruption to its operational effectiveness.
Senior Command Posts Remain Unfilled
The scale of the leadership changes has left important positions vacant at the top of China’s military command structure.
Zhang was the most senior uniformed officer in the PLA and served as vice chairman of the Central Military Commission, China’s highest military decision making body. He was also regarded as a close military ally of Xi and had actual combat experience from China’s 1979 war with Vietnam.
Liu served as a member of the commission and chief of its Joint Staff Department.
Their removal follows a broader purge that has swept through China’s military leadership in recent years. Analysts say numerous second line officers have been promoted into senior positions, while several seats on the CMC’s seven member leadership structure remain unfilled.
The continuing vacancies have raised concerns about how quickly Beijing can replace commanders with the experience needed to manage large and complicated military operations.
China’s defense ministry has not publicly indicated when all of the vacant positions will be filled.
Taiwan Is the Biggest Test
The consequences could be particularly important in any crisis involving Taiwan.
China regards Taiwan as part of its territory and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control. Beijing has simultaneously expanded military exercises and deployments around the island, making the PLA’s ability to conduct sustained joint operations an important regional security concern.
Analysts cited by Reuters said that upheaval on the current scale could create problems for more complicated operations, including a potential Taiwan contingency, even though routine military activities have continued.
That distinction is significant.
China’s military has not stopped functioning because of the purges. Weapons testing, exercises and deployments continue, suggesting that the PLA’s broader command and operational systems remain functional.
But a large scale conflict would place far greater demands on the military. A Taiwan operation, for example, could require coordination among China’s navy, air force, rocket forces, cyber capabilities and ground forces, alongside extensive logistical and command operations.
The question is therefore not whether the PLA can continue carrying out military activities, but how political upheaval at the highest levels could affect its ability to conduct a prolonged and highly complex war.
Xi’s Control Has Become the Other Story
While the purges may create operational uncertainty, they have also reinforced the political principle at the heart of China’s military system: the PLA is ultimately subordinate to the Communist Party.
Xi has made political loyalty and party control central to his military reforms since taking power in 2012. The latest expulsions show that even senior commanders with close connections to the leadership can be removed when they are judged to have violated party discipline.
Chinese military authorities have framed the cases in precisely those terms, accusing Zhang and Liu of political violations and forming factions. Official military commentary said their conduct damaged the military’s political environment and combat effectiveness.
Some analysts therefore see the purge not simply as an anti corruption campaign, but as another stage in Xi’s effort to ensure that the military remains firmly under his control.
That distinction matters because the PLA occupies a unique position within China’s political system. It is not an independent national military in the Western sense. Its fundamental institutional principle is the Communist Party’s leadership over the armed forces.
Xi’s ability to remove senior commanders, including one who had been regarded as a close ally, demonstrates the extent of that political control.
A Costly Trade Off
The latest shake-up creates a difficult balance for China’s leadership.
On one side, corruption and factionalism can undermine military procurement, promotions and command discipline. Removing compromised officers could therefore strengthen the PLA over time.
On the other, replacing experienced commanders in rapid succession can disrupt institutional knowledge and create uncertainty at a moment when China is seeking to build a military capable of operating across increasingly demanding theaters.
That tension is especially important because the PLA has not fought a major war since 1979. Zhang’s combat experience from that conflict made him an unusual figure among China’s current senior commanders.
China has invested heavily in technology, weapons systems and military modernization, but combat experience cannot simply be replaced through new equipment.
The result is a paradox at the center of Xi’s military strategy: the more aggressively Beijing purges senior commanders to enforce political discipline, the more closely analysts will examine whether those changes are affecting the military’s ability to fight.
For now, China’s military continues to operate and project power across the region. But with senior posts still vacant and the leadership shake-up continuing, questions about command experience, institutional stability and war-fighting readiness are likely to remain part of the debate over how prepared the PLA would be for its most demanding test: a major conflict over Taiwan.
With information from Reuters.
