New Zealand is heading toward its November 7 election with polls suggesting a closely contested race between the country’s major political blocs. But under New Zealand’s electoral system, winning the largest number of votes does not necessarily mean winning the right to govern.
The country uses a mixed-member proportional, or MMP, system that has made coalition governments a regular feature of its politics since it was introduced in 1996.
As Parliament holds its final sitting before the election, the system will again determine not only which parties enter the legislature, but also which combination of parties can assemble a governing majority.
What is MMP?
New Zealand previously used the first-past-the-post system, under which the candidate receiving the most votes in each electoral district won the seat.
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The system was replaced after concerns that first-past-the-post gave larger parties an advantage and left smaller parties underrepresented in Parliament.
Under MMP, voters cast two separate ballots. One is for a candidate representing their local electorate, while the other is for their preferred political party.
The system combines these two elements to produce a Parliament that broadly reflects the national party vote while maintaining locally elected representatives.
MMP was first introduced in Germany and has subsequently been adopted, with variations, by several countries including Bolivia, Lesotho, South Korea and Thailand.
How does the system work?
New Zealand has 71 electorate seats, with the candidate receiving the most votes in each electorate winning that constituency.
The remaining seats are generally allocated from party lists. These seats are intended to ensure that each party’s overall representation in Parliament corresponds broadly to its share of the nationwide party vote.
A party normally needs at least 5% of the party vote to enter Parliament through the list system. However, it can also qualify for parliamentary representation by winning an electorate seat.
This creates an important distinction between the two votes.
A voter can support one candidate in their local electorate while giving their party vote to another political party.
The party vote is particularly important because it largely determines the overall balance of power in Parliament.
The standard Parliament has 120 seats, meaning a party or group of parties generally needs at least 61 seats to command a majority and form a government.
Does MMP favour coalitions?
MMP does not formally require coalition governments, but its proportional structure makes them much more common.
Because smaller parties can win parliamentary representation based on their national vote share, the largest parties frequently fall short of the 61-seat threshold.
That means the party that finishes first may still need support from one or more smaller parties to form a government.
Since MMP was introduced, governments have generally involved either formal coalitions or agreements between major parties and smaller parties.
The main exception came in 2020, when Labour won enough seats to govern alone after receiving more than half of the party vote.
The system therefore gives smaller parties greater potential influence than they would normally have under a first-past-the-post model.
Why smaller parties can become kingmakers
The role of smaller parties becomes particularly important when the two largest parties cannot reach a majority between them.
New Zealand First has previously played this role. Following the 1996 election, it supported a National-led government, while after the 2017 election it entered a coalition with Labour.
Te Pati Māori has also participated in agreements supporting National-led governments following the 2008, 2011 and 2014 elections.
The 2017 election demonstrated why the number of seats won by the largest party is not necessarily enough to determine who becomes prime minister.
National won 56 seats, compared with Labour’s 46, but could not assemble a majority. Labour subsequently formed a government through an agreement with New Zealand First and secured confidence and supply support from the Green Party.
The outcome showed that under MMP, government formation is ultimately determined by the ability to assemble a parliamentary majority rather than simply by finishing first.
The system has some unusual features
MMP can also produce what are known as overhang seats.
Normally, the 120 parliamentary seats are distributed according to the proportional formula. But if a party wins more electorate seats than its share of the party vote would normally give it, those electorate MPs retain their seats.
Additional seats can then be created so that other parties do not lose their proportional representation.
This occurred after the 2023 election, when Te Pati Māori won six electorate seats despite receiving 3.1% of the nationwide party vote.
The result increased the size of Parliament beyond its normal 120 seats.
New Zealand also maintains dedicated Māori electorates. Seven of the country’s electorate seats are Māori seats, with voters who are enrolled on the Māori electoral roll able to vote in those constituencies. Māori voters can instead choose to enrol on the general electoral roll.
What will determine the next government?
The November election will therefore involve two related questions.
The first is which parties win the electorate and party votes. The second is whether the resulting parliamentary numbers allow one party to govern alone or require negotiations between multiple parties.
That distinction is central to understanding New Zealand elections.
A party can win more seats than any other party and still remain outside government if it cannot secure enough support from other parties. Conversely, a smaller party can gain considerable political influence if its seats become necessary to establish a majority.
This is why MMP tends to produce governments based on negotiation and coalition building rather than allowing the largest party to automatically take power.
The system was introduced partly to give smaller parties greater representation, and that feature has fundamentally changed how governments are formed in New Zealand.
As voters head to the polls, the crucial number will therefore not simply be which party finishes first. It will be whether any party or combination of parties can reach the parliamentary majority needed to govern.
With information from Reuters.
