Over the past several months, Russia has increased hybrid warfare activities such as acts of sabotage and potential terrorist attacks across Europe. Though Moscow has engaged Europe in hybrid warfare over the past several years, the current 2026 escalation could bring NATO into direct confrontation with Russia.
Russia’s military is exhausted after nearly five years of full-scale war in Ukraine, and the Kremlin is far behind on its wartime goals. Ukraine’s government still stands, all occupied provisional capitals remain under control of Kyiv, and Russia struggles to complete a conquest of the Donbas region, amassing 1.6 million casualties doing so.
Recently, it has been reported that longtime Russian autocrat Vladimir Putin fears ending the war without achieving a central goal, such as the capture of Ukraine’s Donbas region, for fear of being killed by his hardline inner circle. Because of those fears, Putin now faces an existential threat to his own regime, which is entirely self-inflicted.
Potentially preparing to mobilize new forces to replenish losses, the Kremlin is looking to stoke tensions in Europe to probe defenses, escalate the war onto the European continent, or justify nationwide mobilization if a NATO member were to become directly involved in the war.
Russia’s Escalating Hybrid Warfare in Europe
In August 2026, several armed drones were found on one of the runways of Leipzig Airport in Germany. In the following weeks, other armed drones were found around the airport.
On Tuesday, September 1st, the German government stated that Russia is responsible for the armed drones in a pattern of hybrid warfare attacks and information operations against Germany. The Bundeswehr reported several instances of spying and acts of sabotage in German military bases, particularly where training of the Ukrainian armed forces (AFU) and logistical staging towards Ukraine have taken place.
In July 2024, U.S. intelligence discovered a Russian plot to assassinate Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger, as the major German defense enterprise is leading in artillery production for the AFU. Furthermore, acts of sabotage such as conflagrations and incendiary devices have been documented in Germany between 2024 and 2026.
Similar to Germany, Denmark is facing an escalation of sabotage linked to Russian intelligence services. Copenhagen’s national security services recently warned that the Kremlin is recruiting Danish citizens for sabotage operations in the country, as Denmark is a major benefactor for Ukraine’s defense.
Other countries, such as the United Kingdom, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, and others, have documented instances of sabotage, information warfare, or hybrid escalation, which is increasingly becoming common in 2026.
What is the Kremlin looking to achieve?
Amid conducting endless offensives against Ukraine, the Kremlin has accrued irrecoverable losses for minimal gains and no wartime objectives achieved. Not only has it amassed 1.6 million casualties and failed to achieve any objective, but Moscow is also now under pressure from Kyiv.
The Russian wartime economy is exhausted; the navy and maritime shipping are increasingly under pressure from the AFU, and Ukraine has enacted a significant local counteroffensive that has stabilized a portion of the frontlines. Casualty rates are also becoming a major strain on Russia’s wartime posture, as recruitment has stagnated and it struggles to replace losses.
The battles for the fortress-belt cities of the Donbas region (Kramatorsk and Sloviansk) have not yet begun, and casualties are expected to rise sharply when the Russian military attempts to capture Ukraine’s strongest defensive lines.
CIA Chief John Ratcliffe attempted to persuade Moscow that the longer the war continues, the higher the negative consequences of it, but Putin remains confident Russia can continue the war. Still, the Russian autocrat needs a major pretext to expand the war, as the previous mobilization was unpopular in the country. That casus belli could come from a direct provocation by Europe.
A Pretext to End the War in Ukraine
Recently, the Economist reported that Putin fears ending the war without the full capture of Ukraine’s Donbas region, as it could lead to his death either by his hardline inner circle or the Russian people. At the same time, Putin risks exhausting what’s left of the Russian military’s force projection not only through the impending fortress-belt battles but also through major setbacks in Africa and the South Caucasus.
Without an existential threat to justify mobilization or another several years of war, Putin risks an even more unstable regime. After hundreds of years of national rhetoric dehumanizing Ukrainians and denying their existence, Putin’s own hardline ultranationalist stance is coming back to haunt him if the Russian military were to continue stalling or be forced to settle without achieving a primary goal.
During their invasion of Ukraine, Putin has emphasized that his country is at war with NATO and not just the government of Kyiv and the provocations against Europe can lead to the pretext the Russian autocrat needs to keep his place in power secured.
Attacking a NATO member in a limited strike or incursion, such as a vulnerable smaller country such as Estonia and Lithuania or one in political turmoil, such as Germany, all with a sizeable sympathetic Russian minority, could give Putin the domestic support he needs to expand a mobilization. A scenario such as this also gives Putin a pretext to withdraw from Ukraine if NATO directly retaliates, all while the Kremlin gets to test if Article 5 is concrete.
In the aforementioned scenarios, along with a botched invasion with skyrocketing casualties that could reach 2 million in 2027, the Kremlin will look to find a pretext to expand the war by limitedly attacking a European NATO member in hopes of either reviving nationalistic enthusiasm to swell loss ranks or withdrawing from Ukraine, as Putin will have the excuse he needs to end the war without fear of being killed by his own hardliners.
