South Korea estimates that North Korea possesses between 80 and 120 nuclear warheads, putting Seoul’s assessment well above the figure recently cited by U.S. President Donald Trump.
South Korean Defence Minister Ahn Gyu-back told lawmakers that North Korea was generally believed to have around 80 to 120 warheads, while stressing that the exact number remains difficult to determine.
Trump had said a day earlier that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un possesses 57 nuclear weapons, creating a significant discrepancy between the assessments of Washington and Seoul.
The disagreement comes as Trump seeks to revive diplomatic engagement with Kim and has said he expects to meet the North Korean leader later this year.
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Why Are South Korea and Trump Giving Different Nuclear Estimates?
Ahn said the 80 to 120 figure was based on estimates produced by private research organisations rather than an official South Korean military assessment.
He therefore cautioned that Seoul could not independently confirm the precise size of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal.
Trump, meanwhile, did not explain the basis for his figure of 57 weapons.
The difference is substantial. If the South Korean estimate is accurate, North Korea could possess more than twice the number of warheads cited by Trump.
The uncertainty itself reflects one of the central problems surrounding North Korea’s nuclear programme: much of its arsenal remains difficult for outside governments to verify.
Does South Korea Recognise North Korea as a Nuclear State?
Officially, no.
Seoul continues to maintain its longstanding policy supporting the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula and does not formally recognise North Korea as a nuclear weapons state.
When lawmakers asked Ahn whether the government acknowledged Pyongyang as a nuclear-armed state, he rejected the idea.
“We cannot officially acknowledge that,” he said.
That position creates a distinction between recognising the reality of North Korea’s nuclear capabilities and legally or politically accepting North Korea as a legitimate nuclear weapons state.
South Korea therefore continues to describe denuclearisation as its official objective even while preparing for a North Korean arsenal that may be significantly larger than previously believed.
Why Does the Size of North Korea’s Arsenal Matter?
The number of warheads North Korea possesses directly affects assessments of the threat facing South Korea, Japan and U.S. forces in the region.
A larger stockpile could give Pyongyang greater flexibility in maintaining a survivable nuclear force, developing different delivery systems and potentially retaining weapons even after suffering a military attack.
It could also complicate any future negotiations over denuclearisation.
If North Korea has accumulated substantially more weapons than previously estimated, persuading Pyongyang to dismantle its arsenal would become a considerably more difficult diplomatic and technical task.
The discrepancy also matters for U.S. and South Korean defence planning because estimates of the North’s nuclear capability influence decisions about deterrence, military readiness and missile defence.
Will South Korea Develop Its Own Nuclear Weapons?
Ahn reiterated that Seoul will continue to rely on the United States’ nuclear umbrella.
He said South Korea cannot develop its own nuclear weapons and should not accept the deployment of U.S. tactical nuclear weapons.
That reflects Seoul’s longstanding non-nuclear policy.
Instead, South Korea relies on its alliance with Washington and the U.S. commitment to defend the country.
The growing uncertainty surrounding North Korea’s arsenal nevertheless places pressure on this arrangement, particularly as Pyongyang continues to develop its nuclear and missile capabilities.
Why Is Trump Trying to Re-engage Kim Jong Un?
The nuclear estimates emerged as Trump attempts to revive diplomacy with North Korea.
Trump said Wednesday that he expected to meet Kim later this year, potentially restarting a dialogue that stalled after the two leaders held unprecedented summits in 2018 and 2019.
Those meetings ultimately failed to produce an agreement because Washington and Pyongyang remained divided over sanctions relief and the scope and future of North Korea’s nuclear programme.
Trump’s renewed interest in Kim therefore comes at a time when the nuclear problem may be even more complicated than during their previous negotiations.
Why Did Trump Reduce U.S.-South Korean Military Drills?
As part of his effort to create an environment more conducive to dialogue, Trump ordered a reduction in joint U.S.-South Korean military exercises.
He has described the drills as “hostile” to North Korea.
South Korea and the United States subsequently agreed to shorten their annual exercises and reduce some field training.
The move was intended partly to reduce tensions with Pyongyang and potentially create space for renewed diplomacy.
But North Korea has not treated the reduction as a major concession.
How Has North Korea Responded?
Kim Yo Jong, the influential sister of Kim Jong Un, responded cautiously to the reduction in military exercises.
She argued that the shortened drills remained provocative and aggressive.
She also dismissed the idea that Pyongyang should interpret the move as a meaningful goodwill gesture.
At the same time, she described the personal relationship between Trump and Kim as “excellent,” while saying she was unaware of any recent contact between the two leaders.
The response suggests that North Korea may be willing to keep the possibility of diplomacy open without accepting Washington’s latest move as sufficient to restart negotiations.
Could Trump’s Nuclear Figure Affect Future Negotiations?
The difference between 57 and 80 to 120 warheads could become important if negotiations resume.
Any future agreement would need to establish what North Korea actually possesses before meaningful reductions could be verified.
That is already a difficult task because North Korea’s nuclear programme has operated largely outside international inspections.
A major gap between U.S. and South Korean assessments could therefore complicate efforts to establish a common baseline.
It could also influence what Washington considers an acceptable outcome.
If the United States believes North Korea has 57 warheads while South Korean estimates place the number as high as 120, the two allies could approach negotiations with different assessments of the scale of the threat.
Is North Korea’s Nuclear Arsenal Becoming the New Normal?
The most important issue is not necessarily whether North Korea has 57, 80 or 120 nuclear warheads.
It is that the uncertainty itself demonstrates how difficult it has become to contain North Korea’s nuclear programme.
Pyongyang has spent years expanding its nuclear capabilities while negotiations have repeatedly failed to produce verifiable disarmament.
Trump’s renewed diplomatic approach could reopen an important channel with Kim, but the strategic circumstances have changed considerably since their first summit.
North Korea now appears to possess a larger and more established nuclear capability, while South Korea remains committed to relying on U.S. extended deterrence rather than developing its own arsenal.
That creates a difficult balancing act for Seoul.
South Korea must strengthen its ability to deter North Korea without crossing the threshold into developing its own nuclear weapons. Washington, meanwhile, must reassure its ally while attempting to persuade Pyongyang to return to negotiations.
The discrepancy over the size of North Korea’s arsenal also highlights a deeper problem for any future diplomacy: before discussing how many weapons North Korea should eliminate, Washington and Seoul must establish how many weapons Pyongyang actually possesses.
If Trump succeeds in meeting Kim later this year, the nuclear question will remain at the centre of the negotiations.
And if South Korean estimates are closer to reality, the challenge facing the next round of diplomacy may be considerably larger than Washington currently acknowledges.
With information from Reuters.
