U.S. President Donald Trump is set to highlight falling violent crime rates on Friday as evidence that his law and order agenda is working, seeking to shift attention toward public safety as economic concerns weigh on his approval ratings ahead of November’s midterm elections.
Trump will visit the Nassau County Police Academy in New York to unveil 2025 data from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. A White House official said the figures will show the largest year to year decline in violent crime on record.
FBI Director Kash Patel and newly sworn in Attorney General Todd Blanche are expected to join Trump at the event.
The appearance comes as Republicans look for issues that resonate with swing voters amid concerns over inflation and the economic fallout from the war with Iran. Republicans are also seeking to portray Democrats as out of step with voters on public safety.
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“President Trump promised to make America safe again and the data proves he has done just that,” White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis said.
Murder and Robbery Rates Fall
According to excerpts from the FBI report shared by the White House before its publication, murder and non negligent manslaughter fell an estimated 18.1% in 2025, while robberies declined by an estimated 18.5%.
The figures come after violent crime surged during the final years of Trump’s first administration, with homicides reaching their highest levels in decades during the COVID pandemic.
However, the decline in crime began before Trump returned to office. Homicide rates fell sharply in 2023 and 2024, returning to levels seen before the pandemic.
The decline has been recorded across cities of different sizes and political orientations, including communities that have pursued aggressive policing as well as those that have emphasized police reform.
The trend has also occurred in places with both high and low numbers of police officers, making it difficult to attribute the nationwide decline to a single policy.
Trump Makes Crime a Midterm Issue
Trump has repeatedly warned of what he calls a “crime epidemic,” particularly in Democratic run cities. His concerns have previously been used to justify stronger federal intervention, including the deployment of federal agents and National Guard troops to Washington last year.
His decision to emphasize falling crime rates comes as Republicans prepare for the November midterm elections and seek issues that could appeal to voters beyond the economy.
Trump has also increasingly focused his political attacks on socialism and communism, targeting self described democratic socialist New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani and other progressive candidates.
Democrats Challenge Trump’s Claims
Democrats argue that Republicans are overstating the impact of federal policy on the decline in crime because the trend began before Trump returned to the White House.
Progressives have also largely moved away from the “defund the police” movement that gained prominence following the 2020 murder of George Floyd.
Democrats now generally support police reform while arguing that immigration enforcement has contributed to insecurity in some communities. They have pointed to cases in which immigration officers have killed two U.S. citizens.
The competing interpretations of the crime data are likely to make public safety an important political issue as both parties prepare for the midterm elections.
With information from Reuters.
