Saudi Arabia is turning to regional defence alliances as it faces growing attacks from Iran and its network of regional allies, while trying to avoid being pulled into a wider Middle East war.
Riyadh is pursuing several new security arrangements, including a multinational maritime coalition in the Red Sea and a defence pact with Turkey and Pakistan. However, analysts and diplomats say the emerging alliances have so far failed to prevent attacks on Saudi territory and infrastructure.
The kingdom faces a difficult balancing act: protecting its economic ambitions and critical infrastructure while avoiding direct involvement in the wider conflict between the United States and Iran.
“Saudi Arabia’s problem is that the kingdom’s enemies know it wants to avoid war. They are abusing that,” one Middle Eastern official said.
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Saudi analyst Aziz al-Ghashian said Iran and its allies had interpreted Saudi restraint as an unwillingness to retaliate, making deterrence increasingly important for Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia Gradually Escalates Its Response
Since the United States and Israel launched their war against Iran on February 28, Saudi Arabia initially focused on diplomacy and avoided publicly responding militarily to attacks.
That approach helped Riyadh reach a tentative calm with Iran around the time of an April ceasefire with Washington and maintain its position as a relatively safe Gulf state.
The situation has deteriorated in recent weeks, however, with attacks targeting Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea.
Two weeks ago, Saudi Arabia and the United States conducted joint airstrikes against Iraqi militias that Riyadh and Washington said were involved in attacks on the kingdom. It was Saudi Arabia’s first publicly announced military retaliation during the conflict.
Two days later, Riyadh announced plans to establish a maritime defence coalition in the Red Sea.
It followed that move with the announcement of a joint defence agreement with Turkey and Pakistan in Mecca.
Saudi Arabia Turns to Turkey and Pakistan
The Saudi Turkey Pakistan agreement carries significant symbolic importance because it brings together three major Muslim countries under a commitment to mutual defence.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the agreement was technically comparable to NATO’s Article 5, although any response to an attack would require consultations among the three countries.
The practical military implications remain less certain.
Pakistan already has a defence agreement with Saudi Arabia but has historically sought to avoid becoming militarily involved in conflicts between Riyadh and Tehran.
Iran has also downplayed the agreement, saying it saw no reason for concern as long as Saudi Arabia and its partners correctly identified the threat.
For Riyadh, the pact appears to be less about immediately preparing for a major war and more about demonstrating that continued attacks could trigger a broader regional response.
The Yemen Problem
Yemen remains one of Saudi Arabia’s most difficult security challenges.
The Iran aligned Houthis ended a four year truce last month, declaring a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia and launching attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping.
The renewed attacks have highlighted the kingdom’s vulnerability to asymmetric warfare and revived memories of the 2019 attacks that severely disrupted Saudi oil production.
Saudi Arabia previously intervened militarily in Yemen in 2015 after the Houthis seized the capital Sanaa. The conflict generated widespread international criticism over civilian casualties and the humanitarian crisis.
This time, Riyadh wants Yemen’s internationally recognised government to lead any future offensive against the Houthis rather than directly taking the lead.
Red Sea Coalition Takes Shape
Saudi Arabia is also seeking greater international involvement in protecting Red Sea shipping.
The kingdom has invited regional countries to join a multinational maritime defence coalition, with 14 countries so far signing on and additional participants expected.
Western governments remain more cautious. European countries are considering whether to participate because of concerns that joining the coalition could draw them deeper into a potential conflict in Yemen.
Saudi officials want the coalition formally established as soon as possible, with meetings planned in Jeddah.
Analysis: Deterrence Without War
Saudi Arabia’s emerging security strategy reflects a fundamental dilemma. Riyadh wants stronger deterrence without crossing the threshold into a war that could threaten its economic transformation and regional stability.
The new alliances therefore appear to represent an incremental escalation rather than a decision to confront Iran and its allies directly. By bringing Turkey, Pakistan and regional states into its security architecture, Saudi Arabia can raise the potential cost of attacks while maintaining diplomacy as its first line of defence.
But the strategy carries its own risks. Defence commitments can create expectations that Saudi Arabia may be unwilling or unable to meet, while a larger coalition could also make it harder for Riyadh to remain outside a wider conflict.
The central test for Saudi Arabia will be whether these alliances can restore deterrence without becoming mechanisms that pull the kingdom deeper into the war it has spent months trying to avoid.
With information from Reuters.
