Russian President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls for peace negotiations with Ukraine and is instead likely to intensify the war in the coming months, according to three sources close to the Kremlin, despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s recent optimism about prospects for ending the conflict.
The sources told Reuters that recent Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, ports and energy infrastructure have reinforced Putin’s determination to continue fighting rather than seek a negotiated settlement.
Kremlin sources see high risk of escalation
Two of the sources said there is a strong possibility that Russia will escalate military operations in Ukraine over the coming months.
One individual who regularly meets Putin described the likelihood of escalation as “high,” saying the Russian leader has become even more determined after Ukraine expanded its long-range attacks inside Russian territory.
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According to one source familiar with Kremlin thinking, Putin has “dug in his heels” and remains focused on achieving one of his principal military objectives capturing the remainder of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
The source said Putin recently rejected advice from some advisers who proposed exploring a compromise based on freezing the conflict along current front lines.
Another source said the Russian president believes Russian forces are still capable of securing full control of Donbas.
Trump’s optimism contrasts with Kremlin assessment
The assessment from Kremlin insiders contrasts sharply with comments made by President Donald Trump.
Earlier this week, Trump said he believed Putin wanted the war to end and suggested a settlement was “closer than people realize.”
Trump recently held separate phone conversations with both Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
The two leaders also met during the NATO summit in Ankara, where Zelenskiy said they discussed ideas that could move peace efforts forward.
The White House did not comment on Reuters’ report.
Kremlin insists Russia is open to peace
While rejecting suggestions that Moscow is preparing for negotiations, the Kremlin publicly maintained that Russia remains willing to pursue a peaceful resolution.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia possesses sufficient military capabilities to continue what Moscow calls its “special military operation” while remaining open to diplomacy.
Ukraine, however, sees little evidence that Russia is preparing for meaningful negotiations.
A senior Ukrainian official said intelligence assessments indicate Moscow is instead preparing for additional military operations, both inside Ukraine and potentially elsewhere in Europe.
Donbas remains Putin’s primary objective
According to the Reuters sources, Putin views full control of the Donbas as essential to achieving Russia’s strategic goals.
Although Russian advances have slowed considerably this year, the Kremlin reportedly believes continued pressure will eventually allow Russian forces to seize the remaining Ukrainian-held territory in the Donetsk region.
Putin has repeatedly rejected Ukrainian proposals for a ceasefire before Russia achieves its military objectives.
He also recently stated publicly that Russia intends to establish a broader “security zone” inside Ukrainian territory following attacks on Russian energy infrastructure.
Concerns over possible expansion beyond Ukraine
Russian military analysts have increasingly discussed the possibility of broadening the conflict.
Some have publicly suggested strikes against military facilities in NATO countries, particularly in the Baltic region.
Defense analysts caution that such actions would carry enormous risks because NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause treats an attack on one member as an attack on the entire alliance.
Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute said Russia could instead attempt limited provocations designed to expose divisions within NATO over how to respond.
Such actions, he suggested, could also help Putin justify broader military mobilization at home.
War imposes growing costs on Russia
Despite maintaining high public approval ratings, Putin faces increasing domestic pressure as Ukraine’s long-range drone campaign reaches deeper into Russian territory.
Repeated attacks on oil refineries, fuel depots and ports have contributed to fuel shortages and highlighted the economic costs of the war for ordinary Russians.
Ukraine’s Western allies argue that these strikes have shifted momentum and demonstrate growing vulnerabilities inside Russia.
According to one source, however, rather than encouraging compromise, the attacks have hardened Putin’s resolve to retaliate with greater force.
Russia has responded with major drone and missile strikes across Ukraine, including attacks on Kyiv that have caused significant civilian casualties, while insisting it targets military infrastructure.
Heavy fighting continues in Donbas
On the battlefield, Russia continues to wage a slow, grinding offensive across eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces have struggled to achieve rapid breakthroughs as Ukrainian drone warfare offsets Moscow’s numerical advantage in manpower.
Fighting has intensified around Kostiantynivka, one of Ukraine’s key defensive strongholds in Donetsk.
Although Putin recently claimed Russian forces had captured the city, Ukrainian authorities denied the assertion.
Military analysts estimate the war has become one of the deadliest conflicts in Europe since World War II, with millions of casualties reported across both sides, although neither Russia nor Ukraine publishes official casualty figures.
Why the conflict remains difficult to end
The Reuters report suggests the gap between diplomatic efforts and battlefield realities remains wide.
While Trump has expressed confidence that negotiations are possible, Kremlin insiders indicate Putin still believes additional military gains are achievable before considering serious peace talks.
Control of the Donbas remains central to Russia’s objectives, while Ukraine insists it will continue resisting Russian occupation with Western support.
Future outlook
Prospects for a near-term ceasefire appear increasingly uncertain as Russia signals its intention to continue military operations despite renewed diplomatic engagement.
If Moscow expands its offensive or increases strikes beyond Ukraine’s front lines, tensions with NATO could rise further, increasing the risk of broader confrontation.
At the same time, continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure and sustained Western military support are likely to prolong the conflict, making a negotiated settlement more difficult in the months ahead.
With information from Reuters.
