A year into Donald Trump’s second presidency, a familiar narrative is gaining traction: U.S. allies and trading partners are pivoting toward China as America becomes increasingly unpredictable. The evidence seems compelling at first glance: China posted a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus in 2025, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visited Beijing for the first time since 2017, and British PM Keir Starmer is now making his own pilgrimage. The story writes itself: Trump’s chaos is China’s opportunity.
But dig deeper, and the reality is far more complex and less conclusive than the headlines suggest.
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