Towards the end of World War II, in the mid-1940s, Winston Churchill uttered that significant sentence, perhaps pointing to the potential benefits to be gained in the new Cold War era: “Never let a good crisis go to waste.”
The year 1945 became a milestone for a series of newly established unions, organizations, and collective security formations following World War II. The Arab League in March 1945, the United Nations in October 1945, the IMF in December 1945, and UNESCO in November 1945. It is possible to state that these organizations were both multinational and multi-state structures, as well as efforts to recover after a devastating war witnessed by the world.
Churchill’s Prophecy: The Post-Crisis Division of Spoils
So, where does the crisis fit into this? A crisis is the violent disagreement experienced before the labor pains of a new order, the paradox of disorder before deterioration, or a chain of unexpected events that cannot be tolerated in a normal manner. It is possible to say that the leading state minds of the world order benefited greatly from the foggy atmosphere following the great crisis while designing the mid-1900s. When steel reserves were no longer sufficient, and considering that national identity and nationalism influenced by French thought were damaging the course of events, the name of gaining the advantage of uniting and coming together is literally “post-crisis profit sharing.”
So, who pocketed the profit? After the war, Germany, Italy, and Japan were defeated. In Europe, the Russian wind, which was rapidly increasing its influence, began to blow harder. The USA and the USSR emerged as two great powers. Nazism and Fascism were liquidated in Europe, and a stronger Britain took its place at the center of Europe. It should not be forgotten that colonialism lost significant value. At this very point, it can be said that Winston Churchill was right because, for Britain, a growing, developing, and threatening Germany was finished, and the crisis was not wasted!
2026 Projection: Tired Giants and New Fronts
Fast forward a lifetime to the present day, and what is being discussed is a new world war. While the modern powers of the 21st century have shared their trumps as a result of proxy wars in Syria, the tense Middle East is making itself a topic of discussion at diplomatic dinners in Washington, Moscow, and Ankara. While Washington approaches events nervously following the 2nd Trump term, Moscow blames Europe for the fate of the Ukraine tension, and Ankara is quite cautious on the Syrian line.
The USA, suffering a loss of reputation in the eyes of the Middle Eastern peoples, is drawing reactions from all over the world following the detention of Nicolás Maduro. For Moscow, the winter season is not yet over for European natural gas customers supporting Ukraine. Ankara is quite anxious about Tehran, where people have been pouring into the streets for weeks right next door. Further south, the unexpected defeats of the Israel-backed United Arab Emirates forces against Saudi forces do not seem very important for the Tel Aviv administration due to the news coming from Tehran.
Failure of Safety Valves: The Collapse of the Old Order
In fact, the pendulum of history is performing its widest swing since 1945. That moment of “useful crisis” pointed out by Churchill is being felt again in every cell of the global system today. However, with a fundamental difference: Safety valves like the UN and IMF, established by the victors of 1945, can no longer balance the pressure of 2026. Every tremor experienced, from the streets of Tehran to the steppes of Ukraine, from the change of power in Venezuela to the power struggle in the Gulf, is actually the sound of the collapse of an expired order.
What is happening today is not just a geopolitical arm-wrestling match but a hard bargain for “post-crisis profit sharing.” The order established yesterday through the liquidation of Nazism is being rewritten today through proxy wars and energy crises. What is clear is this: when the dust and smoke of the current chaos settle, those who will shape the middle of the 21st century will again be those who “did not waste” this crisis. The real question is who will deal the cards at the new table: the tired giants of the old world or the new powers emerging from the crisis with strategic patience?
Roadmap for Ankara: Active Neutrality and Strategic Patience
So, as the ring of fire around it tightens, what path should Ankara follow? For Türkiye, the only actor capable of sitting at the same table with Washington and Moscow, this crisis is an opportunity not to choose a side—unlike in 1945—but to determine its own axis. Facing the uncertainty in Iran and the power vacuum in Syria, Ankara’s “cautious” stance must evolve from passive waiting into a strategy of active neutrality.
While developing a transaction-oriented policy with the Trump administration, Türkiye should reinforce its role as an indispensable valve and bridge in Russia’s severed energy and logistics ties with Europe. Instead of taking sides in the tension between Tehran and Tel Aviv, it should apply a buffer zone doctrine to prevent the regional conflict from spilling over to its borders.
The “good crisis” Churchill mentioned passes for Ankara through using its military power for deterrence and its diplomatic power for mediation to become the game-maker of this chaotic era.
