After decades of stable politics, a violent uprising has rocked Madagascar again, leaving the country in the hands of a military junta. The island nation of Africa located in the Indian Ocean has witnessed a revolution that toppled Andry Rajoelina and left the nation under a government backed by a military junta that committed a coup in support of the protests. The sudden disturbance in the largest island in the Indian Ocean has just signaled that with the brewing of a new age of cold war over the Indo-Pacific, neutral isolated nations can no longer enjoy the stability maintained for decades. The geostrategic location of Madagascar has a lot to do with the sudden destabilization of the country.
Geo-strategic Location of Madagascar:
Madagascar is the largest island in the Indian Ocean and one of the six island nations of Africa. It is separated from mainland Africa to the east by the Indian Ocean. The nation is the nearest island nation located near East Africa. The island remains one of the most inhabited pieces of land in the vast Indian Ocean. Madagascar lies on a strategic trading route between Africa and Asia.
Although Madagascar has maintained neutral foreign military relations for decades, the neighbors clearly have not. In 2021, the Mauritian government confirmed that India is funding a new three-kilometer-long runway on the island of North Agalega. East of Madagascar, France maintains a base at the Reunion Islands, which is a French territory. 3000 kilometers away, there is a base of the USA and the UK at Diego Garcia. China, on the other hand, maintains a base at Djibouti, a nation located in the Horn of Africa.
In the emerging race for dominating the Indo-Pacific, Madagascar has become an ideal location for another base. For Western powers aiming to dominate China, Madagascar is another ideal location for a base. This is because Madagascar is the largest chunk of land on the way between Asia and Africa. India fears that Madagascar can become another ideal location for a Chinese base. This is because developing nations across Asia and Africa have become heavily dependent on Chinese loans since the Belt and Road Initiative was launched. France and Europe remain disturbed about the rise of another military junta in Africa becoming a client for Russian arms and mercenaries, a pattern that has been repeated in Chad, Mali, Sudan, and Equatorial Guinea. For China, Madagascar is another ideal location as part of the “String of Pearls” strategy.
The Race for Resources and Dominance
Madagascar is one of the largest producers of cobalt, granite, and nickel, materials that are used for producing lithium batteries. The country is the fourth largest supplier of graphite to the USA. Japan and South Korea import roughly a quarter and a third of their nickel from Madagascar. Other nations, such as Canada and the UK, are also major purchasers. These resources are crucial for aircraft, aerospace equipment, electric vehicles, nuclear energy infrastructure, and renewable energy systems.
The emerging arms race fueled by the race to dominate the Indo-Pacific has driven up the demand for natural resources. Nations along the Indo-Pacific are focusing attention towards strengthening the navy, air force, military infrastructure, and missile technology. Global warming has pushed focus towards renewable sources of energy and nuclear energy. In the race for resources, small nations along the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean will sustain more pressure from hegemonic powers. Similar youth-led protests can spark in those nations, similar to the one in Madagascar. Not all fragile regimes may manage to survive that wave.
Challenges for the New Administration:
The fall of Andry Rajoelina in the face of protests and a coup led to the formation of a new government under Colonel Michael Randrianirina, who led the coup in support of the protesters. The coup and the formation of the new government led to the suspension of Madagascar from the African Union. The move by the African Union is likely to isolate the new administration of Madagascar. However, there is doubt about whether the suspension is likely to make any difference, as the organization has lost credibility over the last several years because of the failure to foster peace and stability in the fractured continent. Gabon, Niger, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, and Mali have previously been suspended because of similar coups, decaying the legitimacy of the organization that has always been criticized as an instrument of Western agendas in Africa.
The new administration is more likely to lean towards China and Russia in the current isolated phase. Although Putin is still bogged down in the disastrous campaign in Ukraine, Russia has already succeeded in leaving footprints over African countries through the use of oil diplomacy and foreign mercenaries to ensure stability. China, on the other hand, remains Madagascar’s third-largest import partner. The rising Asian hegemon has invested in infrastructure such as railroads and ports in Madagascar in an aim to boost economic ties and link the island nation to the BRI project. However, a significant chunk of Madagascar’s economy still relies on Western importers of raw materials. The new administration, therefore, will have to balance between the foreign powers’ shifting strategies in the Indo-Pacific. But this policy will be difficult for a fragile administration led by a junta that already has become isolated in the global community.
More Protests to Follow?
Since 2022, a pattern of revolutions and protests has sparked in the small nations along the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean. In 2022, a revolution toppled the then Rajapaksa Government of Sri Lanka. Similar protests toppled the governments of Bangladesh in 2024 and Nepal in 2025. In 2025, a similar pattern of protests erupted in the Philippines and Indonesia in 2025, although those were not successful. Near Madagascar, similar protests rocked Kenya and Tanzania. The incidents reveal a looming era of turbulence for the small states of the Indo-Pacific.
The small economies that are already devastated by the war in Ukraine are entering a new phase. Trump’s strategies to counter China through tariffs have disrupted the economies of Asia. The focus of the USA and the EU has shifted away from counterterrorism. The fragile governments are therefore left to fend off insurgencies and domestic unrest thriving in stagnant economies. Doomed attempts to balance have led to the implementation of disastrous domestic policies, leading to outbursts against already unpopular governments with dwindling popularity. In the age of globalized social media, popular protests like the one in Madagascar have the potential to trigger similar protests in the neighborhood. Therefore, the possibility of similar protests like the one in Madagascar cannot be ruled out.
Conclusion:
The race for the Indo-Pacific has ushered the small countries into a new era. Most of those small countries are run by governments surviving on dwindling popularity and failing to adapt and balance in the new era. Unpopular policies, the transition of global objectives away from counterterrorism, and the globalization of popular protests in the age of social media are creating a domino effect of popular revolutions. That wave will ultimately create several destabilized, fragile regimes in the Indo-Pacific.
