Pakistan has remained a frontline state, now a geopolitical fault line in the emerging clash between the United States and China. This fashions a delicate reality that has forced Pakistan to walk a fine line, which in some instances is very challenging, to protect its national interests. Pakistan and China have enjoyed a special relationship over the past few decades based on mutual trust, strategic cooperation, and shared developmental goals. At the same time, Pakistan has acted as a major non-NATO partner of the United States, dating back to early efforts in the War on Terror and even during the Cold War.
One of the most notable examples of bilateral cooperation is the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was initiated in 2013. Since then, over $62 billion in investments have flowed into Pakistan, mainly in its energy, infrastructure, and industries, creating about 120,000 domestic jobs and reducing power shortages by approximately 30 percent. Highways, power plants, and several Special Economic Zones in Gwadar, Rashakai, and Dhabeji stand out, attracting both Chinese and Pakistani investors.
Islamabad and Beijing are also the first to introduce mechanisms of concessional financing with a focus on sustainability. A recent deal saw China roll over US$3.4 billion in maturing loans, refinance US$2.1 billion in central bank reserves, and restructure US$1.3 billion in commercial debt, a move that helped keep reserves above IMF-required levels and granted Pakistan essential fiscal room. Such an unprecedented model of debt-management service highlights the fact that Beijing does not focus on its short-term fiscal interests but aims to support the long-term economic prosperity of Pakistan. Remembering that, regardless of the main ongoing cordial friendship between Pakistan and the United States, the April 2023 Extended Fund Facility, composed of US $7 billion and whose first review will take place in May 2025, securing a one-time roll-off of an immediate US $1 billion from the IMF, was brokered amidst wholesome cooperation with both Washington and Beijing, showing how pragmatically smooth Islamabad can be in terms of diplomacy. Pakistan, however, at every turn reemphasizes its stable preference for the development frameworks anchored by China that respect sovereignty and lead to win-win collaboration.
Pakistan has always been a vocal proponent in multilateral forums of the Beijing-style variant of convergence with the Global South. Its 2024 membership bid to the BRICS (it’s Beijing-endorsed application to join the bloc) and its effective hosting of the SCO summit were a sign of desire by the country to spread a narrative that is not within the scope of the US-led order. Pakistan has been using Beijing’s vocabulary on equal growth, debt alleviation, and the connection of the territories, thus playing both the role of beneficiary and co-designer in international programs of China.
The economy of Pakistan is supported by three cross-sectional pillars that include the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), its transactions with the IMF, and its set of Free Trade Agreements (FTA). All these together are the economic lifelines essential to which the country tries to reach the geopolitical balance. This strategy is supported by policies meant to diversify the economy; they will provide increased tax revenue, increased export performance, and increased foreign direct investment inflows not just by the superpowers, but also by Gulf, ASEAN, and Central Asian countries as well.
Pakistan is rebalancing its own identity in the diplomatic arena, making an effort to be seen as a bridge but not as a battlefield in the modern world order. In 2024-2025, Islamabad officially applied to join BRICS, with support from Russia, and hosted the SCO summit, both of which highlight its increasingly discernible place among the Global South and are an alternative to Western-dominated institutions. The country expressed its friendship with China as being ironclad during the SCO summit but also held minimal but close ties with Washington. Despite concerns over geopolitical wrangles, which have been stirred up by human rights issues as well as the strategic American inching to side with India, the U.S. policymakers recognize the role that Pakistan plays in ensuring nuclear stability and preventing terrorism.
It is noteworthy that the unusual meeting in 2025 of President Trump with the Pakistani Chief of Army Staff suggests fresh American interest, particularly at a time when more Chinese influence is emerging in the Asia Pacific region. Pakistan, furthermore, has renewed its relationships with Russia in energy agreements and commercial conferences and broadened its relationship with the Gulf countries, as well as with Iran and Central Asian neighbors.
Security has remained a subtle point for Pakistan’s balancing act. Beijing wants better security of CPEC assets, particularly following the 2024 Dasu suicide assault, which claimed the lives of Chinese workers. Although the development of JF-17 fighter jets as well as Missile transfers highlights the significant military relations, at the same time, it also opens up to Chinese pressure when strikes are made. The cross-border militancy (Fitna Tul Kawarijs) and Baloch insurgencies (Fitna Tul Hindustan) pose a serious threat to citizens, and they entirely question the credibility of Pakistan. Pakistan needs to enhance its internal security in such a complicated region.
The US-China rivalry presents a multilayered security and economic dilemma to Pakistan, which means that the country should develop a measured approach based on its time-tested ties with Beijing, the country that considers itself its all-weather friend, but take serious considerations to develop ties with some Gulf, ASEAN, emerging African, and Central Asian states. The Islamic Republic of Pakistan is already one of the partners of Beijing in its projects like the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), and therefore, the commitment to Chinese-led initiatives means that unbeatable opportunities are available to develop infrastructure and to expand trade and the transfer of technology, which in turn generates self-sufficiency and shared prosperity of people. At the same time, simultaneous gauged interaction with other powers can consolidate Chinese spending without undermining the main ally principle of Pakistan.
Lastly, by promoting the Chinese vision of a more balanced Global South under multilateral organizations (and at this point, Pakistan can play an essential role as a bridge between the East and the West) such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), BRICS+, and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), Pakistan will be able to contribute to the rise of both East and West under Chinese tutelage.
