In the aftermath of the 2025 India-Pakistan standoff arguably the most dangerous escalation between nuclear-armed neighbors in decades the silence from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) was deafening. Not a single statement. Not a call for restraint. Not even a symbolic gesture of mediation. Once envisioned as a platform to foster regional peace, economic cooperation, and political dialogue, SAARC now lies in diplomatic paralysis, having been effectively dormant since the cancellation of its 2016 summit in Islamabad.
Meanwhile, China, sensing the vacuum, has moved swiftly. A trilateral meeting in Kunming on June 19, 2025 with Pakistan and Bangladesh signals Beijing’s quiet construction of a new regional architecture that prioritizes connectivity and infrastructure over political dysfunction. As discussions advance on a China-led alternative, one must ask: What is the relevance of a regional organization that fails to engage in its core mandate preventing and responding to inter-state conflict? In its silence, SAARC may have signed its own obituary.
Building on SAARC’s inertia, China has deftly positioned itself as the emerging architect of South Asian regional integration. By facilitating renewed dialogue between Afghanistan and Pakistan and actively courting other South Asian nations, Beijing is engineering a new multilateral framework that promises to enhance connectivity, trade, and political cooperation across the region. This emerging alliance not only threatens to marginalize India’s long-standing hegemonic aspirations but also signals a significant shift in regional power dynamics. As China assumes the role of regional convenor, it challenges the very premise of SAARC and the traditional South Asian order, heralding a new era where Beijing’s strategic vision could redefine economic corridors and geopolitical alignments potentially reshaping South Asia’s future on terms favorable to Chinese interests and diminishing India’s regional dominance.
The extension of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); a flagship $62 billion project under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into Afghanistan marks a pivotal development in Beijing’s regional strategy. This expansion reflects a convergence of interests: Afghanistan’s urgent need for economic investment amid crippling Western sanctions, Pakistan’s quest to secure its unstable western frontier against insurgencies, and China’s determination to safeguard its infrastructure projects from militant threats. By integrating Afghanistan into this burgeoning economic bloc, China and Pakistan are not merely fostering regional connectivity and development; they are constructing a powerful counterbalance to India’s traditional influence in South Asia. This move underscores Beijing’s ambition to transform South Asia’s geopolitical landscape by knitting together a strategic alliance anchored in infrastructure and economic interdependence, further sidelining fragmented platforms like SAARC and reinforcing China’s leadership in the region’s future order.
Former Indian Intelligence Bureau official Avinash Mohanani’s warnings underscore the urgency for India to recalibrate its regional strategy in response to China’s expanding influence across South Asia. As China methodically builds a new regional bloc effectively replacing the dormant SAARC and incorporating Pakistan, Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and Sri Lanka-India risks losing its traditional sphere of influence unless it adopts a proactive ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy. Mohanani’s three-pronged approach, emphasizing soft power, economic engagement, and technological cooperation, highlights the critical gaps in India’s current outreach efforts. Without a coherent and assertive strategy, India will continue to cede ground to China’s growing role as the regional ‘big brother,’ allowing Beijing to shape South Asia’s geopolitical and economic future on its own terms. This evolving reality not only challenges India’s hegemonic ambitions but also compels a strategic rethink of regional cooperation frameworks that have long been overshadowed by rivalry and mistrust.
Despite growing speculation, there remains no official confirmation from Pakistan or China regarding the formal establishment of a new regional bloc aimed at South Asian cooperation. Clarity on this initiative is expected by the end of the year. Meanwhile, India watches these developments with concern, perceiving the potential bloc as a direct challenge to its strategic partnerships and influence over smaller South Asian states. However, should this alliance materialize, it could significantly reshape the region’s geopolitical landscape. With China’s substantial economic investments and strategic stakes in South Asia, it is unlikely Beijing would allow discord among member states to undermine broader regional stability and development goals. In this context, the proposed bloc holds the potential not only to counterbalance India’s dominance but also to foster enhanced connectivity, economic growth, and peace across South Asia. While uncertainties remain, there is cautious optimism that such an initiative could ultimately bring South Asian nations closer, promoting cooperation in a region long marred by rivalry and fragmentation.
