The geopolitical scene in the Middle East is going through perhaps its most dramatic period in decades. A key cause of this upheaval is the growing disagreements between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, which are marked by differing ideologies, armed actions through proxies, and ambitions to lead in the region. Since Israel must often deal with major threats to its existence, the rivalry means the country must mix strong military protection with smart diplomacy. The Abraham Accords have led to Israel and a number of GCC countries working towards shared regional peace since 2020. The relationship between Israel and the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and, to some extent, Saudi Arabia is promoting more teamwork. On the other hand, Iran’s wide-reaching desires, backed by the Revolutionary Guards as well as allies like Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen, have not gone away. It argues that Israel’s security depends on mastering how to mix firm deterrence strategies with skillful diplomatic efforts in the tense Iran-GCC region. As a result of these intense challenges, how Israel plans its strategies has changed a lot. Normally isolated in the Arab world, Israel experienced a major change after the Abraham Accords of 2020, when the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain officially agreed to normalize relations with them. The agreements marked a change in how local countries form alliances, mainly due to common worries about Iran’s expanding role and nuclear goals. Although Saudi Arabia is not a formal member of these pacts, its tacit work with Israel shows a goal of working against Iran. The new relationships formed by Israel with the UAE and Bahrain have allowed for more intelligence, military, and economic activities, which have greatly changed how the region is defended. The new model helps Israel to respond to Iran’s growing assertiveness with traditional measures as well as less common actions.
Nonetheless, the fact that Iran is trying to become a nuclear power is a lasting danger. Because Iran is working on missiles, developing nuclear weapons, and relying on other countries to attack, the country constantly endangers Israel and requires it to be ready for any defense eventuality. Handling this environment requires Israel to maintain both its military options and work on diplomatic talks. Israel also keeps investing in military equipment such as the Iron Dome and better missile defenses to defend its key areas and borders. Retaliatory strikes in Syria and spying on Iran’s nuclear activities show Israel aims to curb Tehran’s efforts. The country also acknowledges that maintaining good relationships, especially with the GCC states, is very valuable. It is important to be sensitive to Gulf leaders’ interests and still find methods to join forces on security matters.
The Iran-GCC Rivalry: A Regional Power Struggle
For decades, Iran and the GCC states have felt conflicted because of the important role of history, sectarianism, and politics in the Middle East. Basically, most Sunni Arab rulers in the Gulf see the Shia-led government in Iran as a force that causes tension in the region. The region perceives Tehran to be working toward weakening Gulf regimes and taking over the area, which could disturb the balance between countries. This uneasiness is most obvious in the form of proxy fighting in Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, where Iran gives assistance in the form of arms, funds, and advice to groups it supports. They take on GCC-supported actors, which makes these countries the scene of regional competition. A major and dangerous part of the dispute is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which joins the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. It is very important for global shipping and energy routes to have control here because vessels on their way through the Suez Canal use this passage. Iran-supported Houthi fighters in Yemen often attack nearby shipping routes and Saudi infrastructure with missiles and drones. They endanger Gulf stability and also create instability in important trade routes. Because so much of the world’s oil flows through the nearby Strait of Hormuz, any trouble here could upset oil prices and lead to worries worldwide.
Ensuring the safety of Israel’s sea routes and assured access to stable energy sources is very important. Because of the Iran-GCC conflict, there are important consequences for the region. Being separate from the Arab world for many years, Israel has tried to build diplomatic ties to challenge Iranian dominance. In 2020, the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain joined Israel in signing the Abraham Accords, which normalized diplomatic relations. Because of these agreements, the Middle East has seen more cooperation among nations, backed by intelligence, armies, and economic partnership, which has redesigned the region’s security system. At the same time, this partnership could leave Israel in a tricky situation because of the Iran-GCC conflict that continues today. As Arab Gulf nations strengthen their relationship with Israel to balance Iran, they must handle their matters with Tehran, which is not always easy. Saudi Arabia tries to walk a fine line by assisting Israel in security matters and still talking with Iran. Because the region is so complex, the diplomacy of neighboring Middle East countries is full of surprises and unpredictable changes.
Israel’s Dual-Track Security Strategy
Israel’s security doctrine in this context is characterized by a two-pronged approach: uncompromising deterrence through covert operations and cyber warfare, coupled with a cautious but expanding diplomatic engagement with Gulf states.
Military Deterrence and Covert Operations
Israel is known for regularly planning and performing covert operations that target enemies with great accuracy and keep the operations hidden to avoid provoking war. Over the past few years, this strategy has appeared in a number of airstrikes inside Iran and Syria aimed mostly at stopping Tehran’s nuclear activities, arm shipments, and military systems supporting its proxy forces throughout the region. While Israel seldom takes credit for such actions, it is believed by many intelligence agencies that it played a major role in carrying them out. Iran’s uranium enrichment is important in Natanz, so the regular strikes on the nuclear site are a significant example. The attacks have temporarily slowed down Iran’s plans to build a nuclear weapon since they have damaged necessary infrastructure and held up centrifuges. Because of these operations, Iran may not develop nuclear weapons, and Israel proves decisively that it will handle serious threats. By using surgical strikes, Israel tries to keep its security secure without sparking a widespread war that a big attack could cause. In addition to their strong kinetic force, Israel has also built a formidable cyber warfare infrastructure, which is very valuable for the country’s security. The suspected role of Israel in Stuxnet has become an important example of cyber conflict today. It was reported that Stuxnet was set up to interfere with Iranian nuclear centrifuges, which led to their malfunction, stopping much of Iran’s uranium enrichment activities. Through this cyberattack, it became clear that Israel uses cyber methods to weaken enemy strengths quietly and with uncertainty about who is behind it.
Cyber operations offer Israel a strategic advantage by enabling it to strike critical targets below the threshold of traditional warfare. These actions can delay or disrupt enemy capabilities while minimizing the risk of direct retaliation or escalation. As Iran continues to advance its military and nuclear ambitions, Israel’s integrated approach—combining covert airstrikes with cyber operations—remains central to its deterrence strategy, projecting strength and resilience in an increasingly complex and volatile regional security environment.
Diplomatic Engagement and Regional Alliances
In addition to strong military action, Israel has chosen a practical approach in diplomacy to make its region and economy safer. The agreement known as the Abraham Accords, formed in 2020, represented a major shift in Israel’s relationship with various Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, especially the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. As well as establishing informal relationships, these agreements created set ways for cooperation in industries such as security, trade, technology, and energy. As soon as they were formed, the accords helped hold military exercises, share valuable intelligence, and unite in counterterrorism, making Israel’s alliances in the Gulf stronger. There has been a marked increase in Israel’s naval coordination with Gulf states. Since a large part of worldwide trade and energy passes along the Red Sea, the Gulf of Oman, and through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, protecting the seas is now a key concern for all countries. By teaming up with Gulf navies, Israel has joined in protection missions, active counter-piracy measures, and sharing of intelligence to guard these important shipping routes from risks related to Iran’s militias and other adversaries. Such steps show Israel seeking to play a stabilizing role in an area where maritime security is becoming less secure. Still, the connection between Israel and Arab Gulf states is restricted by wider international circumstances. Most Gulf monarchies are careful to keep communications and trade with Iran, relying on pragmatic aspects like oil, security in the region, and wishing to prevent any major problems. Saudi Arabia continues to practice caution, not forming official diplomatic ties with Israel. Alternatively, Riyadh engages in secret intelligence exchanges and talks about security issues, looking after Iran’s concerns alongside the need to control a fragile and volatile Middle East.
Key Challenges and Risks
Israel’s security strategy is fraught with risks, both external and internal, that complicate its ability to maintain the delicate balance between deterrence and diplomacy.
Proxy Escalations and the Threat of Miscalculation
Iran’s use of proxy groups across the Middle East is a major element of its strategy, and it often threatens Israel and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) allies. Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and the many militias in Syria and Iraq are among the main proxies. Even though Iran has different amounts of influence over them, all of these groups help project power and challenge enemies without Iran entering into direct fights. Hezbollah is Iran’s main proxy and is estimated to have control of over 100,000 weapons they can launch at northern Israel. Taking part in the Syrian civil war together with Iran has allowed the group to gain more experience and build its influence in the region. In relation, the Houthis, who are a Shia armed group with support from Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in Yemen, have repeatedly hit Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates with ballistic missiles and drones.
Because of these attacks, such as the airport missile strike in October 2022, the Saudi-led coalition conducted retaliatory airstrikes, which increased tensions and might cause the conflict to spread outside of Yemen. In Iraq and Syria, Iranian-backed militias, including Kata’ib Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Forces, continue to have the ability to attack US and Israeli targets, which worsens the security situation. Because these proxy movements are not centralized, Israel and Gulf states have no easy way to predict how tensions could spiral into serious problems. Both clandestine Israeli attacks and missile launches by allies could unexpectedly trigger retaliation.
Israel’s covert operations targeting Iranian assets and proxies have been effective in degrading enemy capabilities, but they also heighten the potential for broader conflict. Tehran’s response could include intensified support for proxy attacks or direct military actions, especially if it perceives its vital interests under threat. The overlapping alliances and rivalries, including Russia’s role in Syria and US presence in Iraq, add further complexity, increasing the danger that localized incidents could spiral into a larger regional war. Managing this volatile environment requires constant vigilance and a calibrated approach to deterrence.
Uncertainty in US Policy
The Middle East depends on the United States for security, which underpins the strategy that ensures both Israeli and Gulf Arab security remain intact. Even so, the US has taken a variable approach to Iran over the past decade: while there was a diplomatic agreement in 2015 (JCPOA), President Trump pulled out and launched a stricter containment campaign identified as the “maximum pressure” policy in 2018. As a consequence of these policy changes, there are unclear threats that make it more difficult for regional countries to cooperate. Israel has always been skeptical about the U.S. trying to have diplomatic talks with Iran, believing that easing Iran’s sanctions would only fuel its regional influence and nuclear dreams. Israeli officials say that giving Tehran a chance to break rules could encourage it and its allies and cause Israel’s threats to escalate. Therefore, Israel is now putting more focus on carrying out independent military measures, doing long-range air exercises, and improving coordination with allies in missile defense. Alternatively, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—still part of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)—have opted for a practical stance, striking a balance between relying on the United States for security and engaging in diplomacy with Iran. Saudi Arabia and Iran ended their diplomatic freeze in 2023 with the help of China as part of an effort to lessen the effects of proxy battles and keep important trade and energy sectors running smoothly. Such differences in strategy can cause conflicts between Israel and Gulf states. The main goal of maximal deterrence is to stop potential adversaries from acting out, but the alternative focuses on preventing a big confrontation. Because U.S. policy changes frequently and often lacks a stable long-term plan, this issue becomes more serious, highlighting the requirement for a trilateral agreement that covers the security concerns of Tel Aviv, Riyadh, and Washington.
Domestic and Regional Political Constraints
In Israel, who sets the security policy is decided by a population that has many political parties and varied ideas. Arguments between the hawkish and dovish groups in the United States concern the extent of military presence, the use of secret tactics, and the type of strategic relationships with countries in the Gulf region. Some in the Israeli political right urge an aggressive stance toward Iran and stronger links with regional Gulf states, though a balanced approach and moderation are proposed by those on the left to ensure avoiding unnecessary conflicts. Such divisions may make it harder for Israeli policy to stay consistent and connected in matters of regional cooperation and future security planning. At the same time, the Gulf states, which are now interested in forming strategies with Israel, have to handle the reactions of their citizens and the perception of the region. Because of strong opposition in the past to Israeli actions in Palestine, public feeling in the Arab world still keeps overt partnerships in check. It may be seen that Gulf monarchies, mainly Saudi Arabia, walk a fine line, trying to boost intelligence and security cooperation with Israel and at the same time show loyalty to the wider Arab and Islamic world. Because Saudi Arabia has not formally recognized Israel, it is still very difficult for a Gulf-Israel security organization to function properly. Because of this hesitance, Israel is limited in its wider regional diplomatic efforts and ends up having to work together on an ad hoc basis.
The Road Ahead: Calibrated Pragmatism
Israel’s future security will rely on a sophisticated, flexible strategy that integrates military readiness with diplomatic innovation.
Strengthening Multilateral Security Frameworks
It may be helpful to design shared security plans that would involve Israel, the Gulf states, Egypt, Jordan, and the United States. Even though these efforts are just beginning, the Middle East Strategic Alliance (MESA), dubbed the “Arab NATO,” underlines how countries in the region are concerned about Iran’s malicious activities and impact on important shipping routes. In 2017, the Trump administration set out plans for MESA to pull U.S.-aligned Middle Eastern states together, improve the way they buy arms, and encourage more joint exercises involving them. Yet, differences among states and conflicts like the Qatar crisis (2017–2021) have slowed down the process of the GCC becoming official. In spite of these difficulties, having such alliances still seems like a good idea. Multilateral cooperation could strengthen protection of the seas, especially around locations like the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb, which are key to the world’s energy flows. Getting more information about Iranian missile programs, arms transfers to its allies, and cyber-related threats could increase awareness and act as a deterrent. Joint activation of crisis management plans helps prevent accidental clashes since it strengthens communication and clear coordination processes, especially when regional tensions rise because of incidents like the 2023 Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea.
Sustaining and expanding the Abraham Accords
The formal links created by the Abraham Accord between Israel and Gulf states are important, but success in the long run requires real cooperation between them. By signing agreements with the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan, it became obvious that group fears about Iran’s actions could break down political barriers. Nevertheless, for these to become a stable protection system, they have to depend on more than just exchanging agreements and occasional visits. Joint training and coordinating defenses, mainly in air defense, cybersecurity, and maritime activities, are an important part of how the US and South Korea act together. Involving itself in drills with Gulf and American forces, such as IMX in 2022, indicates that Israel and its neighbors are now more coordinated and agree on sharing dangers. Increasing economic partnerships, especially in technology, safety of water supply, and renewable energy, has the power to create supporters for peace and improve how countries rely on each other. In order to strengthen trust, Israel needs to ensure that the Gulf states trust it will protect them from Iranian action. One way to deal with the above-mentioned threats is to actively share information and supply training as well as Iron Dome and David’s Sling defense systems. Strengthening its military capabilities with the Gulf states helps Israel stop further regional tension and reassure its partners that Iran will not retaliate against them directly. It would make the security order introduced by the Abraham Accords much more robust and reliable.
Leveraging Cyber and Intelligence Capabilities
Israel uses state-of-the-art cyber technology to help defend itself, to gather intelligence, and to prevent and interrupt hostile actions before they take place. Since cyber-attacks now hit critical infrastructure, financial institutions, and military networks from other countries, Israel’s expertise in cybersecurity helps it continue to be a key partner in the region’s security. The Abraham Accords provide an excellent opportunity to bring Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states together in forming a unified cyber defense system. People all over the world know Unit 8200, Israel’s cyber command, to be effective at both offensive and defensive cybersecurity. The Stuxnet cyberattack, which Iran blames on Israel, demonstrates how cyber tools can be used as strategic threats. Because cyberattacks can be denied and avoid triggering real conflicts, they are excellent for handling the asymmetric threats from Iranian proxies and cyber militias. After Iranian-linked cyber threats aimed at oil companies, banks, and government institutions, the UAE and Bahrain have begun to improve their cybersecurity. That same year (2019), UAE’s state oil company ADNOC and other important assets fell victim to cyber disruptions by regional cyber groups. In this situation, joining efforts with Israel, Gulf states can get advanced threat detection tools, become better prepared with early warning systems, and set up databases that share electronic intelligence.
Introducing shared plans and trainings, solidifying protocols for responding to incidents, and building quick information-sharing tools can possibly avoid digital escalations and boost their ability to deter each other. Also, securing maritime infrastructure, like ports and offshore energy areas, can be included in cooperation, since they are prime targets in hybrid warfare. Supporting Israel-GCC cooperative efforts in cybersecurity boosts security in the region and starts building trust among the countries, surpassing what simple military alliances could provide. Because the Middle East is a hotspot for cyber conflict, bringing Israel’s cyber know-how into a collective security system could help address new threats and maintain stability in the region.
Conclusion
Israel is at a strategic crossroads as tensions rise between Iran and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states, driven by sectarian rivalries, regional competition, and proxy warfare. These shifting dynamics reflect a broader transformation in Middle Eastern security relations, with traditional power structures being reshaped. For Israel, this evolving landscape presents both new threats and opportunities. To navigate these challenges, Israel must maintain a balanced strategy of deterrence and diplomacy. Its covert military and cyber operations—such as targeting Iranian assets in Syria or the alleged Stuxnet cyberattack—demonstrate its ability to neutralize threats without escalating into full-scale conflict. However, these operations also carry the risk of unintended escalation due to the ambiguous structure and motivations of Iranian proxy networks. Diplomatically, Israel’s normalization with Gulf states through the Abraham Accords provides a platform for intelligence sharing, defense collaboration, and economic ties. These relationships offer a peaceful counterbalance to military actions, though they remain politically sensitive, especially for Saudi Arabia.
Sustaining this dual-track approach requires careful calibration. Israel must remain flexible, knowing when to deter and when to engage. Expanding regional partnerships, particularly in maritime security, cyber defense, and crisis response, will be crucial to safeguarding national interests and fostering long-term regional stability.
