The Moroccan Sahara conflict represents one of the oldest, most intricate, and confounding regional disputes on the African continent. Historically, following Spain’s withdrawal from the territory in 1975, a multifaceted political, diplomatic, and military contest emerged between Morocco and the Algeria-supported Polisario Front over sovereignty in this region, rich in Moroccan culture, Hassani heritage, and natural resources. Amidst the stagnation of international settlement efforts over several decades, Morocco introduced its autonomy initiative in 2007 as a pragmatic political solution, aligning with international legitimacy, thus reshaping the diplomatic discourse concerning the unitary matter within the Kingdom.
In the following discourse, we shall analyze the conflict’s developments from a legal perspective. We shall examine the Moroccan royal vision of autonomy and its implications within the context of the positions held by international powers, as well as review the repercussions and challenges that this ongoing conflict poses to regional security in the Maghreb region and Africa.
First, the Historical and Legal Background of the Conflict
The fabricated Sahara conflict emerged within the context of the Spanish occupation of the southern region of the Kingdom of Morocco, which ended in 1975. That year, the International Court of Justice issued an advisory ruling highlighting the existence of traditional ties between the Saharawi tribes and the Moroccan royal throne. However, this ruling did not confer clear legal sovereignty over the territory to Morocco, which led to two conflicting interpretations: the first strengthens Morocco’s position regarding its territorial unity, while the second supports the self-determination demands advocated by the Algerian-backed Polisario Front.
After Morocco organized the “Green March” in November 1975, Spain withdrew from the Sahara, leaving Morocco and Mauritania to share the administration of the territory. However, Mauritania soon withdrew, allowing the Polisario Front to control part of the region and declare the “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.” Since then, a war broke out between the two parties that lasted until 1991, when a ceasefire agreement was signed under the supervision of the United Nations. This agreement included the establishment of the “MINURSO” mission, which aims to monitor the humanitarian and security situation in the disputed area while ensuring compliance with the agreement’s requirements from both parties. However, the Polisario Front has not yet adhered to the decisions and recommendations of the UN mission.
Second, the Moroccan autonomy initiative
In light of the obstruction of prospects for political and diplomatic dialogue on the fabricated Sahara conflict, in which Algeria is a major party alongside Morocco, Morocco submitted the Autonomy Initiative to the United Nations in April 2007. This initiative aims to provide a radical political solution, ensuring that the Sahel manages its internal affairs within the framework of Morocco’s territorial integrity. The initiative is based on granting the region broad executive, legislative, and judicial powers while preserving national sovereignty and the constants of the Kingdom in the fields of Defense, foreign policy, and currency.
From a Moroccan perspective, this initiative is seen as a consensual solution that respects the aspirations of the Sahrawis to manage their affairs freely, without compromising national unity. The initiative has received broad international support, as it was met with a warm welcome from major powers such as France, the United States, Germany, and Spain, which considered it a “serious, credible, and realistic” basis for resolving the complex conflict. It also received support from several African and Arab countries, as some opened consulates and diplomatic offices in Laayoune and Dakhla, which are considered implicit support for Morocco’s sovereignty over the region.
Third: The stances of regional and international entities.
In recent years, many countries have shown a remarkable shift in their positions regarding the contrived conflict. In December 2020, the United States, under President Donald Trump, recognized Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in exchange for normalized relations with Israel. Although the Biden administration maintained this decision, it adopted a more cautious stance in its official statements. Meanwhile, Algeria continues to support the Polisario Front politically, diplomatically, and militarily, viewing the conflict as a “decolonization issue” that is not directly related to it despite substantial evidence of its deep involvement. This dispute has heightened tensions in the bilateral relations between Algeria and Morocco, culminating in 2021 with the severing of diplomatic ties between the two countries.
Regionally, the Gulf countries and Egypt support Morocco’s position, while countries such as South Africa take a stance in favor of the Polisario Front based on their historical anti-colonial positions and strategic and economic relations with Algeria. At the United Nations level, the conflict continues to be managed within the framework of the “political series” led by the Organisation through the Personal Envoy of the Secretary-General, who seeks to reconcile the parties’ positions without imposing a prior solution. All previous rounds of negotiations have failed to achieve tangible progress, primarily due to differing views on the nature of the solution. The State of Algeria has refused to participate in discussions with Morocco, considering the latter an essential part of this long-standing issue, as stipulated by all UN Security Council resolutions related to the implications of this matter.
Fourth: The impact of the fabricated conflict on regional security and Maghreb integration
The conflict is viewed as a significant obstacle and a vicious cycle hindering the establishment of an effective Maghreb Union, as the disruption of the Arab Maghreb Union’s institutions, established in 1989, is primarily due to the ongoing tension between Morocco and Algeria. The persistence of the conflict drains financial, investment, and military resources that could have been allocated to development and addressing common regional challenges, such as terrorism, irregular migration, and drought. In terms of security, threats have increased in the Sahel-Saharan region, making the stability of southern Morocco strategically important for combating organized crime and securing borders against the infiltration of terrorist groups. This is highlighted by reports suggesting possible links between some Polisario elements and armed groups active in Mali and Niger. Additionally, American reports from research centers and strategic studies focusing on security and migration in North Africa indicate that the Polisario community is now regarded as a terrorist organization that is highly active in the Sahel and Sahara, posing an increasing threat to the region’s security and stability.
Fifth: Prospects for a settlement and the future of autonomy.
Given the international stalemate in the global arena and the growing recognition of the Autonomy Initiative, the characteristics of potential solutions are pivoting toward a consensus formula and a pragmatic, comprehensive approach based on this initiative. However, the success of this scenario hinges on several factors, including:
1. The parties’ flexibility, especially the State of Algeria, towards the autonomy proposal as a realistic alternative to self-determination.
2. The international powers pressured the main parties involved in the case, aiming to encourage them toward a peaceful settlement that promotes regional stability.
3. Effective engagement of the local population in regional and development institutions enhances the credibility of autonomy as a reliable, practical option.
4. Supporting economic and human development in the southern provinces, which Morocco aims to achieve through significant investments in infrastructure and renewable energy, as well as developing major ports, such as the Atlantic port of Dakhla, while attracting foreign direct investment to strengthen the local and national economy.
It is essential to emphasize that autonomy, as articulated by Morocco, is not merely a technical solution but a comprehensive proposal that encompasses political, cultural, and developmental dimensions. This proposal aims to resolve a conflict that has persisted for over fifty years, thereby opening new horizons for reconciliation and integration in the Maghreb region.
The autonomy proposal presented by Morocco represents a turning point in the Sahara conflict by reframing the international debate from the duality of “independence or integration” to a more realistic and credible third option. Despite the political and regional obstacles that hinder a final settlement, the current geopolitical dynamics are leaning toward consensual solutions, especially with the support of influential international powers for the autonomy initiative through their extensive media coverage.
In conclusion, resolving this contrived conflict is not only about the fate of a particular region but also impacts the future of stability and integration in North Africa. It contributes to creating a Maghreb space capable of addressing common challenges and mitigating the repercussions arising from the current international arena, while fulfilling the aspirations of the region’s people.