In ancient Greek mythology, Achilles wielded a sharp spear and was invincible on the battlefield, yet his heel remained an insurmountable weakness. Similarly, in the 21st century, China possesses strong military capabilities, like a sharp spear, but its weakness in soft power has constrained its continued rise. This article aims to analyze China’s military capabilities and soft power—the strongest and weakest aspects of its national power—while further discussing the potential challenges associated with both.
1. China’s Approaches to Achieving Strong Military Capabilities
High and Continuously Increasing Military Expenditure
A country’s military expenditure is generally considered to be positively correlated with its military capabilities. Although it may be affected by factors such as the efficiency of fund use and the degree of corruption, military expenditure is still the most direct and primary index to measure a country’s military capabilities in contemporary international society. According to data provided by the Ministry of National Defense of China, China’s defense budget reaches 1.69 trillion yuan (USD 233.2 billion) in 2024, an increase of 7.2% from 2023. If we look at the longer timeline, China’s military expenditure has been rising steadily in the past ten years, and the annual growth rate has never been less than 6% even during the economic downturn. If compared horizontally with other countries, China’s military expenditure ranks second only to the United States in the world and is almost the same as the combined military expenditure of Russia (3rd, USD 109 billion), India (4th, USD 83.6 billion), and Saudi Arabia (5th, USD 75.8 billion). Thanks to the solid economic foundation as the world’s second largest economy, China is well-positioned to spend large amounts of money on purchasing up-to-date weapons and equipment, increasing the salaries and benefits of military personnel, constructing military infrastructures and defense industries, conducting troops training and cross-service joint exercises, etc. These measures have significantly improved its combat capabilities, which also reveals that the high and continuously increasing military expenditure has provided essential economic support for the modernization of the Chinese military.
Military Transformation through Advanced Technology
In the Gulf War, the United States used advanced technology to achieve an overwhelming victory at a minimal cost, which brought a considerable shock to the Chinese military and made China realize that the mode of war was undergoing a radical change and the previous approach to constructing mechanized military was difficult to cope with modern warfare. Since then, the Chinese military has begun the transformation from mechanization to informatization, adopting more and more information technology. Entering the 21st century, driven by a new round of technological revolution, a series of high technologies such as big data, artificial intelligence, unmanned systems, and quantum communication have gradually been applied to the Chinese military transformation, showing a trend of intelligence. Advanced technology has received unprecedented attention in the Chinese military and has become a key booster for the transformation. The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China clearly stated that the military must adhere to the integrated development of mechanization, informatization, and intelligence, accelerating the transformation of technology into combat effectiveness. One of the most representative transformations is the establishment of the Strategic Support Force in 2015, a new branch running and coordinating the space, cyber, intelligence, and electronic warfare force, which comprehensively improved the Chinese military capabilities of command, control, reconnaissance, and strike in all-domain combat operations. In 2024, the Strategic Support Force was divided into three independent arms: the Aerospace Force, the Cyberspace Force, and the Information Support Force, further focusing on specialized technical functions. Over the past decades, through constant emphasis on upgrading with advanced technology, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army has transformed from a large yet outdated force into a modern great power with remarkable developments of strategic capabilities in emerging technical areas.
Reform of the Military Command Mechanism
The Opinion on Deepening Reform of National Defense and the Armed Forces, adopted in 2015, declared the official beginning of China’s military reform. Seven military regions were restructured into five theatre commands overseeing different geographic directions. General staff, general politics, general logistics, and general armaments were abolished, with their powers distributed across 15 smaller units which came directly under the Central Military Commission. The command structure was reestablished with three principles: the Central Military Commission instructs top commanders, the theatre commands oversee military operations, and the individual services focus on combat readiness training. The new commanding mechanism, with the Central Military Commission chairman accountability system at its core, clarified relationships between joint operational headquarters and the troops, which substantially reduced previous red tape to simplify several rounds of enforcement procedures, building a more effective commanding system for the modernization of the army. Since 2015, China has made great efforts to downsize, professionalize, restructure existing command relationships, and enable joint operations within the People’s Liberation Army. As far as military effectiveness is concerned, the military reform under Xi Jinping has delivered substantial changes to the organizational structures that have long been considered a major obstacle to effective planning, training, and conduct of joint operations. Specifically, a clearer and narrower definition of military responsibilities and the command-and-control system restructuring undoubtedly created a favorable condition for the People’s Liberation Army to transform itself into a more effective joint force suited to undertaking its central mission, namely, fighting and winning wars under information and intelligent conditions.
2. Reasons for China’s Insufficient Soft Power
Limited International Communication Capabilities of China
According to the soft power theory proposed by the American political scientist Joseph Nye, cultural attractiveness is an important component of soft power. Logically speaking, Chinese culture, which is based on a long history, vast geography, and diverse ethnic groups, should not lack attraction. But why has Chinese culture not been fundamentally recognized and welcomed by the world public? China’s limited international communication capabilities are likely to be one of the most important reasons. China does have a strong desire to build China’s international communication well and let the people of the world understand Chinese culture. However, due to differences in political and economic conditions, religious beliefs, and cultural customs among different countries, the culture exported by China may not be fully understood by the foreign public. In many cases, China’s foreign publicity lacks flexibility and considerations of adapting to local conditions. It is accustomed to explaining Chinese culture with Chinese logic and lacks an accurate assessment of the audience’s understanding, which leads to confusion and even misunderstanding of foreign public. In addition, China’s international communication construction is constrained by the monopoly of international communication. The current international communication pattern has a structural issue of imbalance between the global South and the North, and developed countries have the dominant power in international information flows and international communication channels. International information flows from the center to the periphery, and the center is developed countries, while the periphery is developing countries, including China. The deficit in international information flow has caused the media in developing countries to be overwhelmed by the media in developed countries. For example, the three largest news agencies in the world, the Associated Press in the United States, Reuters in the United Kingdom, and Agence France-Presse in France, publish over 70% of the news of the world every day. Developed countries started early in the construction of international communication with more mature systems as well as greater influence, firmly controlling most of the communication channels and platforms. Their monopoly position restricts China’s participation in international communication.
Huge Gap between Political Institutions and Ideologies
In Joseph Nye’s theory, soft power is also reflected in the appeal of political values. A country can attract recognition from other countries through its political institutions and core values such as freedom, democracy, human rights, and the rule of law. Regarding the political institution, unlike most countries in the world, China has chosen the socialist institution led by the Communist Party. Although the contradiction between the capitalist institution and the socialist institution seems to be less acute with the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the bipolar structure, today there are still many people in the world who lack trust in or even have hostility towards countries that implement the socialist institution. In addition, the United States and other interested competitors have used the political institution difference to carry out propaganda, which has led to a further deterioration in the international public opinion environment facing China. The difference in political institutions has long been a disadvantage for China in developing its soft power. Regarding ideology, ideological conflicts have a negative impact on interactions between China and Western countries. For example, in recent years, Western countries have increasingly condemned China’s human rights situation, believing that China has taken irresponsible human rights violations in Xinjiang, Tibet, and other places. In China’s view, this is a crude interference in China’s domestic affairs by external forces without understanding China’s national conditions, which violates China’s national sovereignty. In addition to human rights issues, there are also certain degrees of deviations between China and Western countries in other ideologies and values such as democracy and freedom. Ideology is invisible, but the issues caused by the ideological gap are real, and on account of that ideology is deeply rooted, the ideological conflicts between China and Western countries are difficult to reconcile in a short period of time.
Tough Gene in China’s Foreign Policy
Apart from the attractiveness of culture and political values, soft power theory believes that the legitimacy of foreign policy does matter. If a country adheres to a fair, peaceful, and cooperative policy on the international stage, it can win the trust and support of the international community. Joseph Nye pointed out that the core of soft power lies in influencing the behavior of other countries through non-coercive means such as attraction, recognition, and cooperation, rather than through threats or force. Looking at China’s foreign policy, we can see significant realism characteristics. China’s diplomacy is centered on its national interests and security, generally adopting a tough stance, which even appears aggressive in the eyes of some neighboring countries. This has led some countries to question whether China is genuinely committed to promoting a fair and just international order or merely seeking to maximize its own national interests. It also explains why some critical voices from the international community call China’s diplomacy “wolf warrior diplomacy” rather than “panda diplomacy.” In 2023, there is a 24-country survey on China’s approach to foreign policy by Pew Research Center. The statistics indicate that most people think China does not take into account the interests of other countries in its foreign policy (76%) and a median of 57% say China interferes in the affairs of other nations a great deal or a fair amount. China’s lack of affinity in the diplomatic field has reduced the international public’s favorable impression of China, and its foreign policy of putting national interests first has aroused anxieties and worries among relevant countries, ultimately leading to the damage to China’s soft power. For instance, China has disputes with the Philippines over islands in the South China Sea, and the Confucius Institute established by China in Manila to spread Chinese culture can only win limited goodwill.
Challenges Facing China’s Continued Rise
Joseph Nye believes that the combination of hard power and soft power, that is, through smart power, is the most effective way. Smart power refers to a country using both hard power and soft power to achieve diplomatic and international strategic goals, but in the future, I’m afraid that both hard power, represented by military capabilities, and soft power of China will face some challenges.
Challenges to Military Capabilities of China
China’s continuous attempts to enhance its military capabilities are both passive and active. On the one hand, it is based on China’s perception of external threats. First, against the backdrop of deteriorating China-US relations and intensified China-US strategic competition, China and the United States are in a fierce security conflict, which is likely to intensify over time. China needs to enhance its military strength to match the United States’ strong and increasingly intensified military projection in the Indo-Pacific region. Second, China is currently engaged in military conflicts with India and the Philippines on land and sea, respectively. Although these two conflicts have not escalated into large-scale hot wars and are still within controllable ranges, China will certainly step up its military deployment in relevant regions to cope with potential escalation of conflicts. Third, in East Asia, there are many unstable and insecure factors in China’s neighboring countries and regions. The North-South relations on the Korean Peninsula and the cross-strait relations in the Taiwan Strait are deteriorating sharply. Under such circumstances, China has to strengthen its military capabilities to ensure national security. On the other hand, China is actively seeking to expand its national interests and influence, although this may be seen as regional hegemony, such as control over islands in the South China Sea, which requires China to ensure its unique military presence in East Asia and even all of Asia. Therefore, in the foreseeable future, even in the face of an economic downturn, China will undoubtedly continue to increase its high expenditure on military capabilities. However, China’s continuous expansion of its military capabilities faces two challenges. One is the security dilemma of an arms race with the United States and neighboring countries. The parties seriously lack mutual trust and cannot judge each other’s true intentions. They can only strengthen their own military strength, which will eventually form a vicious circle. In addition, under the pressure of China’s economic downturn, it is doubtful whether China’s finances can continue to support such huge military expenditure. In the past few decades, as one of the biggest beneficiaries of globalized trade, China has accumulated a lot of wealth and is able to meet huge military expenditures. However, in recent years, China’s economy has shown a downward trend. China’s defense budget growth rate in 2024 (7.2%) exceeds the target growth rate of overall GDP (5%). The sustainability of China’s high military expenditure is uncertain and may face challenges.
Challenges to the Soft Power of China
With the rise of anti-globalization, pan-security, and populist thought, countries seem to have returned to the camp thinking of the Cold War era when dealing with international relations. Western countries, represented by the United States, have implemented small-circle internationalization and excluded China. For example, Confucius Institutes, as an important platform for China to spread its culture and ideas abroad, have been identified by Western countries as political propaganda and deliberate beautification of China’s image. They have been collectively boycotted by Western countries, and a large number of Confucius Institutes have had to be closed. In addition, we can see that Western mainstream media reports on China are basically negative. Many analytical articles and reports exaggerate the China threat theory and the clash of civilizations theory and use democracy and political values to launch all-round criticism of China, causing China to lose ground in international public opinion. China’s foreign policy is also often labeled politically. For example, the Belt and Road Initiative proposed by China to promote regional economic cooperation has been interpreted as China’s Marshall Plan, with the ultimate goal of achieving China’s global hegemony. Western countries such as the United States have a strong influence in international communication. The viewpoints they export can easily change the world’s public opinions on China, thereby aggravating the public misunderstanding and hostility towards China in the world.
