Ethiopia stands at a pivotal crossroads, with Jawar Mohammed at the center of a transformative and inevitable shift for the Oromo people, the nation’s largest ethnic group, historically the most marginalized, brutalized, and oppressed. The Oromo people will shape Ethiopia’s future, and Jawar will play a crucial role as a catalyst, driving either the quest for an inclusive Ethiopia or the push for the secession of an independent Republic of Oromia.
Unveiling the Legacy of Ethiopia’s Unspoken Abyssinian Atrocities
Despite being Africa’s second most populous nation, Ethiopia is not the linchpin of regional security in the Horn of Africa as often portrayed. Instead, it is a country plagued by deep-seated ethnic and historical conflicts, charting a trajectory eerily reminiscent of the former Yugoslavia’s fragmentation. At the center of Ethiopian politics stands Jawar Mohammed, a Western-educated Oromo leader who embodies the Oromo people’s political, economic, and social aspirations. Despite being Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, the Oromo have endured a long history of marginalization, oppression, and brutalization under Abyssinian emperors, a legacy that remains a taboo subject in Ethiopian discourse. This silence persists across all strata of Ethiopian society, reflecting an entrenched unwillingness to confront historical injustices against the Oromo people.
Ethiopian identity is a contested and fragile construct. Ask members of the country’s many ethnic groups what it means to be Ethiopian, and the answers diverge dramatically. Beneath the veneer of national unity lies a deeper reality: ethnic identity, particularly among the Oromo, Tigrayans, and Somalis in the Ogaden region, overwhelmingly supersedes any shared artificially constructed Ethiopian identity. Furthermore, for many, the notion of a cohesive national identity is little more than a fabricated ideal. The legacy of past atrocities against the Oromo people, particularly during the reigns of Emperor Menelik II and Emperor Haile Selassie, remains a contentious and unresolved issue. The lack of historical acknowledgment of these injustices, such as the widespread atrocities and systemic marginalization, continues to haunt Ethiopian politics. Symbolic actions, like erecting a statue of Haile Selassie outside the African Union headquarters, are seen by many as dismissive of the subhuman treatment endured by the Oromo under his rule.
The marginalization of the Oromo stretches back to Abyssinia’s imperial era and persists in modern Ethiopia. Oromo territories were violently annexed into Abyssinia during Emperor Menelik’s reign, in a campaign marked by brutality. The aftermath of this conquest was a deliberate effort to erase Oromo identity, culture, and language, replacing them with an imposed Abyssinian identity. From the perspective of the Oromo, Emperor Menelik is remembered as a “human butcher” a label earned through the systematic oppression and violence inflicted upon their people.
Ethiopia’s Dark History: The Ethnic Cleansing of the Oromo People
During Emperor Menelik’s reign, Oromo people were massacred, with Oromo men subjected to brutal mutilations, including the amputation of their right hands, and women having their right breasts severed. This barbaric act is still commemorated in Oromia as the “Year of Hand and Breast Mutilation” (bara harka fi harma mura). To the Oromo people, the atrocities committed by Menelik II are often compared to the brutalities perpetrated by King Leopold II in the Congo. Both figures are associated with devastating violence and widespread human suffering. However, unlike the extensive international condemnation of Leopold’s actions, Ethiopians have largely failed to fully acknowledge the genocide inflicted upon the Oromo people by Menelik’s regime. During his reign, the Oromo population plummeted from an estimated 10 million in 1870 to around 5 million by 1900, resulting in the loss of approximately 5 million lives. This tragic episode remains largely unaddressed in mainstream Ethiopian historical discourse, hindering meaningful reconciliation and a comprehensive understanding of the nation’s past.
The brutal history of slavery and oppression in Ethiopia has been largely suppressed, a convenient narrative given the shared ethnicity of perpetrators and victims. This obscures the uncomfortable truth that Abyssinia, the Orthodox Christian Empire, was a significant player in the Red Sea slave trade. Slaves were routinely raided from the Oromia region in southern Ethiopia and sold at Menelik’s palace in an open market known as Qera. From there, they were shipped through the port of Adulis to their final destinations. The abolition of slavery in Ethiopia in 1942 was not a product of moral enlightenment or Orthodox Christian piety, but a cynical maneuver to enhance Ethiopia’s international standing. Seeking acceptance into the League of Nations, the monarchy cynically employed the abolition of slavery as a marketing tool to portray itself as a modern, equal partner on the world stage. Had these atrocities been committed by Europeans, Ethiopians and Africans would likely have rallied in collective outrage against this historical injustice inflicted upon the Oromo people.
Menelik’s conquest not only stripped the Oromo people of their land but also relegated them to a form of servitude. The Oromo’s became gabbars (serfs), their ancestral lands confiscated and handed over to Abyssinian settlers, or naftagna, who exploited these resources for their own gain. Slavery was endemic in Ethiopia, as commonplace as the consumption of coffee, and the Oromo were consistently treated as subhuman, or galla. Even today, Ethiopians resist acknowledging this history. Phrases in Amharic like allana sagara eyadar yegam (“The stench of Galla and human feces grows stronger each day”) and Saw naw Galla? (“Is it human or Galla?”) were commonplace expressions used to demonize and dehumanize the Oromo people.
After Menelik’s departure, Emperor Haile Selassie continued the systemic eradication of the Oromo people’s cultural, linguistic, and social identity. In many ways, Selassie prolonged the ethnocide of the Oromo. Their right to practice indigenous religions, preserve their culture, and assert their linguistic identity was systematically denied, all in the name of forced assimilation into a homogenized Ethiopian national identity. Ethiopia’s dark history has been systematically suppressed, with the Ethiopian intelligentsia, particularly those of Amhara origins, striving to conceal the oppressive legacies of Amhara emperors Menelik II and Haile Selassie to protect their image. The atrocities committed during these periods must be acknowledged and confronted for genuine national reconciliation and a more accurate understanding of Ethiopia’s past.
It is deeply shameful that Ethiopian intellectuals continue to deny these historical injustices, including the severe oppression of the Oromo people and the atrocities Haile Selassie inflicted upon Eritreans during his reign. Eritreans, for their part, have not forgotten the brutalities committed by Haile Selassie. While the so-called “King of Kings” may be considered a hero to the Amhara ethnic group, to Tigrayans, Oromos, and Eritreans, he is viewed as a tyrant who symbolizes brute oppression and human atrocity. During one of the worst famines in Africa’s history, his reign exemplified neglect and cruelty.
The time has come for the Oromo people to rise, galvanize, and assert their rightful place in Ethiopia. As the largest ethnic group, inhabiting the majority of Ethiopia’s fertile lands, the Oromo hold the keys to the nation’s future. Ethiopia is Oromia, and Afaan Oromo should be recognized as Ethiopia’s official and working language. After all, it was Haile Selassie who banned the Oromo language from being spoken in public and in schools. The Oromo people can transform Ethiopia into an inclusive and just nation through such ownership and empowerment.
Echoes of Yugoslavia: Can Ethiopia Hold Together?
Who is Jawar Mohammed, the former Oromo-American citizen who renounced his U.S. citizenship to dedicate himself to his people’s cause? Born in Ethiopia, Jawar received his early education at the United World College of South East Asia in Singapore before moving to the United States, where he earned a bachelor’s degree in Political Science from Stanford University and a master’s degree from Columbia University. Despite his Ivy League education and life in the West, Jawar’s commitment to advocating for the Oromo people never wavered. He founded the Oromo Media Network (OMN), a platform that gave a voice to the Oromo people and challenged the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF), a Tigrayan-dominated political coalition that had ruled Ethiopia since 1991.
Jawar was the indispensable strategist behind the Oromo movement that ultimately toppled the EPRDF. Operating in the shadows, he orchestrated the political and social maneuvers that led to the ascension of Abiy Ahmed to Ethiopia’s premiership in 2018, following the resignation of Hailemariam Desalegn amidst widespread internal strife. The Oromo, Ethiopia’s largest ethnic group, were pivotal in this upheaval.
Abiy Ahmed’s rise initially offered a fleeting promise of reform and unity. However, his tenure quickly devolved into authoritarianism, mirroring the legacy of his predecessors. In a calculated move, Abiy forged an alliance with Eritrea to dismantle the influence of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). This effort coincided with the establishment of the Prosperity Party, a political entity designed to supplant the EPRDF and consolidate power. The EPRDF’s dominance had originated in 1991, when the TPLF and the Eritrean People’s Liberation Front (EPLF) ousted the Mengistu regime. Abiy’s calculated moves against the TPLF not only redefined Ethiopia’s power dynamics but also laid bare the nation’s enduring ethnic and political fault lines.
Ethiopia: A Multi-Front War for Survival
Abiy Ahmed replicated the repressive tactics of the EPRDF, charging and imprisoning Jawar Mohammed and other political activists under fabricated terrorism allegations. These charges aimed to neutralize key opposition figures, undermine burgeoning democratic movements, and consolidate the Prosperity Party’s political monopoly. Jawar spent 14 months in prison, where he authored his book, I Will Not Regret. The book, initially set to launch in Kenya in 2024, was disrupted by interference from Abiy’s regime. In an attempt to sabotage its impact, the Ethiopian government leaked the book online. Despite this, the Oromo people have rallied behind Jawar, purchasing the book and reinforcing their support for his political movement.
The Tigray War (2020–2022): This brutal conflict saw the Ethiopian National Defense Force (ENDF) allied with Eritrean forces and Amhara militias (FANO) against the Tigray Defense Force (TDF) and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA). The war displaced 5.1 million people and claimed an estimated 600,000 lives, echoing the horrors of the Yugoslav Wars. The decision to invite Eritrea, a foreign country, to intervene in the Tigray region has left deep scars. The atrocities endured by the people of Tigray will not be forgotten, and Ethiopia’s hold on Tigray has all but evaporated. The prospect of Tigrayan secession has become increasingly likely, posing a profound and potentially destabilizing challenge to Ethiopian unity. Abiy Ahmed’s legacy will undoubtedly be shaped by his decision to invite Eritrean forces into the Tigray conflict, a move widely perceived as a grave betrayal of national sovereignty. This action, however, is not unprecedented. Haile Selassie, the prominent figurehead of the Amhara-dominated political order, previously invited the British Royal Air Force to bomb Tigrayan people during the 1943 Weyane Rebellion. This historical precedent, a tragedy still remembered by the Tigrayan people, underscores the recurring pattern of external military intervention in Ethiopia’s internal conflicts.
Ethnic and regional tensions in Ethiopia seemed poised for resolution with the signing of the fragile Nairobi Agreement on November 12, 2022. Yet, this accord fell short of achieving lasting stability, primarily due to the exclusion of key stakeholders such as Eritrea, OLA, and the Amhara militia, FANO, from the negotiations. The failure of Abiy Ahmed’s administration to broker a genuine peace deal with the OLA further deepened tensions with one of Ethiopia’s most significant ethnic groups. The volatile and strategically expedient peace agreement reached between a dissident faction of the OLA and Abiy Ahmed’s regime in 2024 fails to address the root causes of the conflict, merely postponing the inevitable confrontation between the two parties over the Oromo people’s role in the future of Ethiopia, thus exacerbating an already volatile regional crisis.
In a stark escalation, the government declared a state of emergency in the Amhara region, igniting direct conflict with the FANO, a group that had once stood as an ally alongside Eritrean forces against the TDF. The FANO insurgency, initiated after their exclusion from the Nairobi Agreement in 2022, has steadily escalated into a significant challenge to Abiy Ahmed’s regime. Representing Ethiopia’s second-largest ethnic group, the Amhara, FANO has effectively monopolized the armed struggle narrative, positioning itself as the vanguard of Amhara interests. This stance has drawn significant support, including defections from the ENDF by soldiers of Amhara origin, further eroding the ENDF’s combat effectiveness.
Currently, FANO controls and administers large parts of the Amhara region, effectively securing key lines of communication and maintaining strong popular support within their ethnic base. Their tactical and operational successes, combined with their expanding logistical network, have fortified their position, making the insurgency increasingly difficult for the ENDF to suppress. The ENDF is experiencing a precipitous degradation, demonstrating an inability to effectively counter the decentralized, multi-front insurgencies proliferating across Amhara, Tigray, and Oromia. This starkly reveals the ENDF’s diminishing combat effectiveness, compounded by critical logistical and operational limitations.
In the long term, FANO’s insurgency could evolve into a more formidable force with centralized leadership, enhanced resources and supply chains, and potentially strategic alliances. A partnership with the TDF or the OLA could significantly alter the balance of power, paving the way for a march on Addis Ababa. Such a coalition could dismantle the central government’s remaining control and accelerate Ethiopia’s fragmentation. Conversely, FANO’s growing political and military strength risks catalyzing a broader ethnic civil war among the Tigray, Oromo, and Amhara groups. The complex regional dynamics exacerbate this scenario.
The civil war in Sudan, the ongoing power struggle between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), and the involvement of external actors like Egypt and Eritrea could significantly influence Ethiopia’s trajectory. These actors could exploit Ethiopia’s vulnerabilities by supporting insurgent groups like the TDF, FANO, or OLA, imposing geopolitical costs on Abiy Ahmed’s regime. With potential backing from Mogadishu, the Ogaden region could also emerge as another front in this multifaceted crisis, further undermining Ethiopia’s territorial integrity. In this intricate web of internal and external pressures, Ethiopia faces the risk of state collapse and becoming a theater for broader regional power struggles, with devastating implications for stability in the Horn of Africa.
Abiy Ahmed’s grip on power grows weaker by the day, as does Ethiopia’s unity. The failure to address systemic ethnic and political grievances may well steer the country toward a Yugoslavian fate, a legacy of fragmentation, brute violence, conflict, and human tragedy.
Is Ethiopia Destined for Balkanization?
The Abiy administration has continued its campaign to discredit Jawar’s influence and undermine the broader Oromo democratic aspirations. The upcoming Ethiopian elections will serve as a pivotal moment, determining whether Ethiopia can transition toward genuine democracy, granting the Oromo people their rightful place in the nation, or if the country will spiral further into fragmentation akin to Yugoslavia. One thing is certain: the Oromo people will no longer remain silent. Abiy Ahmed’s regime faces significant challenges. It effectively controls only Addis Ababa, Ethiopia’s capital, while lacking the monopoly of violence necessary to assert authority over the Amhara, Oromo, Tigray, and Somali regions. With limited options left, Abiy’s political miscalculations could soon plunge Ethiopia into deeper turmoil.
Ethiopia stands at a critical crossroads, teetering on the edge of an existential gamble fueled by unresolved internal ethnic conflicts and Abiy’s precarious political strategies. Without a political framework that genuinely recognizes and accommodates the country’s diverse ethnic, linguistic, religious, and cultural identities, Ethiopia risks fracturing in a manner reminiscent of Yugoslavia’s disintegration. Deep-rooted inter-ethnic tensions and religious divisions continue to escalate, threatening the nation’s cohesion. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, plagued by dwindling legitimacy among Ethiopia’s various factions, relies heavily on a nationalist narrative and aspirations of a “Greater Ethiopia,” akin to the Haile Selassie era. However, this strategy only deepens the divisions.Ethiopia cannot rewrite its violent and turbulent history, but it must confront its present reality with genuine clarity and urgency.
Abiy Ahmed’s pursuit of sea access represents a calculated strategic maneuver designed to consolidate his rule. This ambition serves multiple objectives: restructuring the state apparatus to enhance his authority, neutralizing internal factions, rallying nationalist support, and deflecting attention from the ongoing humanitarian crisis in Tigray and violent insurgencies in the Amhara and Oromo regions. Abiy seeks to reorient national discourse and consolidate his power base to prolong his dictatorship in Ethiopia by focusing on a perceived external threat and a grand strategic objective. Using the Red Sea and Eritrea as scapegoats to deflect the pervasive domestic insecurity underscores the fragility of Abiy Ahmed’s regime, exposing its vulnerability window for a color revolution.
The path forward for Ethiopia narrows to three critical options: a peaceful disintegration, a violent breakup reminiscent of Yugoslavia, or comprehensive political reforms that address the historical grievances of the Oromo people to prevent the collapse of the state and form a genuine democratic nation. Abiy must recognize that the existing system is not only flawed but irreparable under the framework of ethnic hegemony. Attempts to resurrect the old model are doomed to fail, further accelerating Ethiopia’s unraveling. The future of Ethiopia hinges on its willingness to embrace inclusive governance, reconcile historical injustices, and chart a path toward equitable co-existence. Abiy Ahmed’s leadership, marked by the human tragedy in Tigray, the rise of ethnic insurgencies across the country, and the resurgence of Greater Ethiopianism, is not the answer. Ethiopia’s future lies in a trajectory that centers the aspirations and rights of the Oromo people. Failure to do so risks a future for Ethiopia that mirrors the fate of Yugoslavia.
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the United States Army, the Department of Defense, or any other agency of the U.S. government.