With this book, Yannis Bassias concludes a seven-year period of continuous presence in Greece, during which he delved into the energy issues of Europe and the Southeastern Mediterranean, including Greece. Starting with Saint-Exupéry’s quote, “A goal without a plan is just a wish,” he addresses the public debate and political discourse that has long promoted a “green energy transition”.
The book contends that the transition is primarily economic rather than energy-related and is happening on a global scale, impacting the energy mix, food systems, and geopolitical/military dynamics. The author notes that the period from 2019 to 2022, characterized by the pandemic, war, reciprocal sanctions, and resentment from developing countries, defined the boundaries of major economic blocs. This era saw the increasing influence of Middle Eastern oil producers, China, and the evolution of the BRICS. The author argues that the Westphalian order (Peace of Westphalia, 1648), established in Europe in the 17th century after the Thirty Years’ War and extended globally after World War II, is now being challenged worldwide. He links global demographic trends to the energy density provided by fossil fuels, which he describes as the “food for the machines” that drive global GDP, economy, and industry. This fundamental relationship is explored through three scenarios that examine the economic and social effects of the availability of energy sources.
The book emphasizes the significance of each component of the energy mix, the factors influencing their costs, the current state of technology and research, and the 30 to 40 years required for the widespread adoption of innovative alternative technologies by consumers. It specifically highlights hydrogen electrolysis, carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage, and nuclear fission and fusion. The study also examines the reliance on Chinese products for solar panels, electric cars, and electrolysis catalysts, noting that this dependence is often bolstered by European subsidies.
It is highlighted how the model of importing cheap natural gas from Russia via Germany, was accompanied by non-innovative alternative sources and how this model fell down as a ‘paper tower’ at the time of sanction to Russia. Without the support of gas, these renewables cannot meet electricity needs because of their intermittent output. This model, which lasted for two decades, was supported by an idealized, abrupt and radical attitude to define the ‘death’ of fossil fuels by entertaining the crowds and flattering part of public opinion. But it has led to a disorderly transition to renewables, and to the dependence of kilowatt-hour prices on the transmission and distribution networks of distant gas, which was shaped after the sanctions on Russia. The EU’s dependence on Russian gas (more than 40% by 2022) was intertwined with this introduction of renewables.
It is in this light that are measured the stakes of electricity storage, keeping in mind that massive storage is a lifeline for intermittent response of renewable energy sources, the current dispersion of the installations, and the absence of low-cost electricity distribution. It points out that, although overproduction due to falling consumption and falling prices is a phenomenon that is also periodically observed in hydrocarbons, the significant difference is that hydrocarbons are stored at large scale, whereas electricity is not. A concrete example is the recent curtailment in the electricity grids, resulting in zero electricity prices from renewable energy sources, creating a negative economic impact on the small and medium-sized investors and a minimal to zero reduction in the consumer’s tariff.
One of the key messages of the book remains the importance of energy independence and self-sufficiency in resources. In a special chapter, the author analyses the energy reality of Greece and the Southeast Mediterranean, explaining the proven existence of large geometrical structures with hydrocarbons in Greece’s subsurface and the necessity of deep drilling, which, unfortunately, has been avoided for two decades due to geopolitics in the southeast of the Mediterranean and the religious commitment to fighting climate change. In this frame, Greece, as part of the European framework, remained focused on tourism and transit, aspiring to become a key EU service provider for electricity transmission from renewable energy sources and gas from the South-Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa. Today this “green vision” is coming under international scrutiny, leaving time for a review of Greece’s energy policy also. From his position as an expert, he points out that the geometry of the Greek maritime subsurface is very similar to that further east in the Mediterranean and provides enormous potential for discoveries in Greece. The country covers a total of 630,000 square kilometers, while its maritime territory is three and a half times larger than its land, and has significant potential for hydrocarbon reserves, such as those already exploitable in the South-Eastern Mediterranean. As he briefly notes, major players such as France’s Total and Spain’s Repsol have pulled out recently of Greece due to delays and legal entanglements, but time leaves still room to ExxonMobil for hydrocarbon exploration in the Greek territory to progress, turning missed opportunities into successes. He points out that it would be inconceivable for Greece to buy natural gas to produce blue hydrogen or to borrow funds, regardless of the form of lending, European or otherwise, to build renewable energy sources, looking forward to the production of green hydrogen.
Yannis Bassias concludes that the transition from the exploitation of an existing energy source, such as fossil fuels, to new sources, or energy carriers such as hydrogen or carbon dioxide, is a difficult and time-consuming process, full of challenges, resistance and setbacks, especially when the technologies are not tested, and often does not deliver what is promised, remaining distant and expensive. If massive economic electricity storage without environmental impact is achieved in the next ten years, today’s non-innovative renewables may continue to grow. However, as he points out, in the final analysis, it all depends on the speed of development and acceptance of nuclear fission and, later, fusion.
In this context, oil together with natural gas will continue to be used, to the extent that people can afford to buy refined products and hydrocarbon derivatives at the prices that producers need to continue to produce them.
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A few words about the author
He served as President and CEO of the Hellenic Hydrocarbon Management Company (HHRM, now HEREMA). From 2016 to 2020, he developed the technical and legal framework for the state-owned company, managed international oil and gas tenders in Greek seas and onshore, and signed exploration and production lease agreements with Total, Exxon, Repsol, Edison, HELPE, and Energean. He and his team also implemented European safety regulations for offshore oil installations. He was a member of the National Energy and Climate Plans (NECP) until 2020. During 2020-21, he collaborated on the development of the FSRU-LNG ARGO project in Central Eastern Greece, which has a projected annual regasification capacity of 5 Bcm. He contributed to municipalities in Western Macedonia by developing mineral resources, generating electricity from biomass plants, and creating small irrigation/electricity storage dams.
Prior to 2016, he worked in the private sector for over three decades in technology, geophysical research, and hydrocarbon development. His experience includes exploring and evaluating hydrocarbon reservoirs in the USA, Colombia, Venezuela, French Guiana Yemen, Tunisia, Senegal, Congo, the Mozambique Channel and the Indian Ocean continental margins. Before his tenure at the Free University of Berlin and the Geology Laboratory of the National Museum in Paris as an associate professor, he studied at the Kapodistrian University of Athens and Paris VI University. He was a Fellow of the Council of Europe (1981-1983) and the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation (1985-1987). He frequently contributes to print and online media, providing technical analyses on energy mix options and their economic implications for Europe and Greece. He is the author or co-author of over 40 publications in international scientific and industrial journals and co-editor of three reports on French marine research expeditions in the Indian Ocean.