The Venezuelan opposition leader Edmundo González Urrutia arrived in Spain on Sunday afternoon, where he has been granted political asylum following a tense hiding period after his apparent win in the July 28th elections. As many who challenged Maduro before, he leaves for exile in Spain due to fears for his and his family’s safety, where his threat to Maduro’s regime greatly diminishes, to the dismay of many Venezuelans. Fortunately for Venezuela, Corina Machado vows to fight on and for once, time is on their side.
Since his win in the July 28th elections (we should call it that until the government releases any proof to suggest otherwise) González had been in hiding, recently sheltering in the Dutch Embassy in Caracas, Venezuela’s capital, and had been in talks with Spain in recent days to find a way out of his difficult situation, according to diplomatic sources cited by Spanish newspaper El País. Fearing for his life and the safety of his family due to persecution by the Venezuelan prosecutor’s office, González Urrutia decided on Saturday night to leave Venezuela.
The diplomatic efforts that led to González Urrutia’s asylum had been ongoing for two weeks. González Urrutia met with Spanish diplomats on Saturday morning at a European embassy in Caracas. According to a letter from the Dutch government to its Parliament, González Urrutia had been sheltered at the Dutch Embassy in Caracas until Thursday, after which he moved to the Spanish ambassador’s residence. Former Spanish President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero played a crucial role in these negotiations offering to mediate between parties. Spain insists that it was González who requested asylum, though other sources familiar with the talks suggest that the process stemmed from negotiations involving key Maduro allies, Delcy, and Jorge Rodríguez (although Spanish diplomats argue there were only operational, like safe passage). On Saturday, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called González Urrutia a “hero,” stating that Spain would not abandon him despite being pursued by Venezuelan justice for five dubious charges. At that point, it was clear that González Urrutia was close to deciding. The encirclement of the Argentine embassy by security forces was a clear sign that there was no safe refuge left in Venezuela.
Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodríguez announced González Urrutia’s departure on Instagram, stating that Venezuela had granted the “necessary safe conduct” for the sake of “peace and political tranquillity in the country.” Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares confirmed that González’s departure was at his own request, not at Spain’s initiative. Albares denied any negotiations with the Maduro government for this operation, emphasizing Spain’s commitment to the political rights of all Venezuelans and stating that Spain will not recognize “a supposed victory” by Maduro without the release of official records. Spain consistently calls for a “peaceful and genuine resolution for Venezuelans.” Currently, there is no indication that other opposition figures, including María Corina Machado, the undisputed leader of the opposition, are considering following González Urrutia’s path.
González Urrutia had ignored the latest summons from the Venezuelan prosecutor’s office, which wanted to interrogate and accuse him of five charges related to his presidential candidacy. He refused to appear before authorities, citing the lack of independence of public powers, which are ultimately controlled by Maduro. Earlier this year, González Urrutia was a 74-year-old retiree, unknown to most of the country. However, everything changed in April. María Corina Machado, the absolute leader of the opposition, was disqualified from running in the presidential election by government-controlled bodies. The authorities believed that without Machado in the race, there would be no obstacles to Maduro’s re-election until 2030. Only she posed a threat to Maduro in the polls.
To counteract this, Machado passed her candidacy to renowned historian Corina Yoris. The opposition, which seemed to be disarmed by the government, experienced a moment of optimism, and rearmed itself. This strategy had been used before in the Venezuelan region of Barinas: each disqualified candidate was replaced by another until the government had no choice but to accept one. It worked in Barinas, where an opposition candidate currently governs.
When Yoris seemed poised to challenge Maduro in the presidential election, the electoral authorities disqualified her without reason (the historian had never held public office nor had unresolved legal issues). Machado then thought of González Urrutia, a discreet, well-mannered man who had been a diplomat and political operator for the opposition, mostly working behind the scenes. When offered the candidacy, Edmundo initially refused, suggesting they find someone else, as facing the government in the current Venezuelan political context is extremely dangerous. Ultimately, González Urrutia agreed. “I don’t feel afraid,” he said in an interview with El País. He naturally accepted Machado’s leadership, fully aware that his political capital stemmed from a politician who had successfully mobilized massive anti-government sentiment in Venezuela. He toured the country with Machado, and within weeks, every Venezuelan knew him.
The Edmundo-María Corina duo worked, leading to an apparent win on election day, but the government-controlled National Electoral Centre (CNE) declared Maduro the winner, without showing the records as required by law. The international community demanded that Maduro present any proof of his victory, but this has yet to happen. The United States and other countries have already declared González Urrutia the winner and consider Maduro an illegitimate ruler.
In response, the government has arrested over 2,000 people, mostly on vague “terrorism” charges. Machado’s collaborators and advisors were also persecuted and imprisoned by SEBIN, the Venezuelan secret service. It was only a matter of days before the authorities would move against González Urrutia. Five days ago, the prosecutor’s office issued an arrest warrant against him for the publication of the records on that website, which he neither designed nor managed, as it had all been prepared long before he was chosen as a candidate. With the governments justice system bearing down on him and his family, and the prospect of a lengthy prison sentence, the choice was clear.
González Urrutia follows the path of more than 100,000 Venezuelans who have fled to Spain to escape the Venezuelan regime. Spain’s asylum policy has made it the top destination for Venezuelans seeking refuge, as well as becoming a safe haven for opponents of the Venezuelan government, with key figures such as Leopoldo López, Antonio Ledezma, and Henrique Capriles all residing there.
The Venezuelan crisis has also become a new point of domestic contention in Spain.
In one of this week’s three Parliamentary sessions, the rightist Popular Party will propose a motion to recognize González Urrutia as the elected president of Venezuela, condemn the repression by Maduro’s regime, and censure former President José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, who has mediated in the opposition leader’s departure and the release of numerous political prisoners in the past, for remaining silent on the electoral fraud.
The Spanish government, like other EU countries, has not recognized Maduro’s victory, arguing that the electoral records have not been made public. However, it has also refrained from recognizing the opposition candidate, considering it a futile gesture, as demonstrated in 2019 when the international community recognized Juan Guaidó as “interim president” without any practical effect.
It is clear that a traditional” non-interference” approach won’t work in Venezuela, with the government so firmly in control of critical levers of power, infrastructure, and propaganda tools. Aside from the worst-case scenario (a civil war, like Syria), it’s up to the international community to force a regime change or at least a face-saving retreat for Maduro. That could be done in a myriad of non-violent ways, but the best would be a re-run of the Barbados Accords and the secret Qatar talks: The lifting of sanctions vs stopping the repression, freeing political prisoners, and guarantees of a fair election.
This time however, there is palpable differences. Firstly, the ruling Chavistas know this blatant election theft might be the straw that broke the camel’s back in their quest for international recognition. There are murmurs that many in Maduro’s inner circle know the situation is quickly becoming untenable as there is no way to save face or prove Maduro actually won the election. Secondly even though Edmundo’s exile is a blow to the opposition, their true leader, Corina Machado, remains in Venezuela with the people behind her. Lastly, and most importantly Maduro can’t afford to wait it out as in 2019: Unless a global shift like Ukraine or COVID forces countries to buy more Venezuelan oil (the country’s economic heartbeat, and ace in the hole when times get tricky), the sanctions are only going to get tougher, with Kamala Harris or Donald Trump continuing to put pressure on Maduro after Bidens exit. His “allies” Cuba, China and Russia are dealing with their own troubles and are mostly too far away to make an impact. Maduro might have won the battle with his main rival exiled, but he will probably lose the war, much to the joy of the Venezuelan people.
