Navigating the Uncertain Waters: Bangladesh’s Current Instability and Future Prospects

Bangladesh is a South Asian country that has a success story of fighting adversity and sustaining development and the country is in a phase of post- ,political, economical and social crisis.

Bangladesh is a South Asian country that has a success story of fighting adversity and sustaining development and the country is in a phase of post- ,political, economical and social crisis. Considered to be a phenomenal transformation of a war stricken nation in 1971 to one of the fastest growing economy in just four decades, the element of poverty has been comparatively controlled in Bangladesh and the healthcare has seen improvements along with diversifying the manufacturing industry. Still, this progress is under the threat of multifaceted challenges that are capable of destabilizing its situation as well as the future trends.

The country with the per capita income of $1,150 has successfully recorded an average GDP growth rate of over 6% in the past 10 years, with the garment sector that contributes to a large extent to the export income. The demographic dividend, explained by a large youthful, and growing, educated human capital has also been instrumental in Asia’s economic growth. However significant upgrade in infra structure health and education sectors have put a positive spin to the lives of many a Bangladeshi citizen.

Nevertheless, the country is standing on the cross-road now and requires a new model of development. Society is politically rather polarized between the governing AL and the BNP, which often stages violent and usually halts democracy work. Tertiary losses are economic problems that are associated with the COVID-19 pandemic where important areas of business and employment have been affected. Other evils that the world continues to face are social wrongs such as suppression of human rights and minority injustices that are present in the nation, besides environmental vices that are because with vulnerability to climate change.

It is for this reason that these factors are interrelated and constitute a coherent and holistic comprehension of the present day turbulence in Bangladesh. In the present context of Bangladesh, this article discusses the political, economical, social, and environmental issues for the nation’s future stability and development. Hence, it is possible to address these critical challenges with proper planning and collective endeavours, Bangladesh must harbour the dream to transform the existing plight into a dream-like future for its population.

Political Instability

Dueling for archantagonist, the political landscape of Bangladesh has continued to reel under chronic tension between the ruling Awami League and the opposition’s Bangladesh Nationalist Party. The arch rivalries between the two leading political forces boast a long and complicated history; these are often marked with deep-seated enmities, which were further dotted with ideological differences. This has often resulted in political stalemate, violent confrontation, and widespread civil unrest engulfs the country.

One such factor among the many which are behind the existing political instability is the degradation of democratic norms. Democratic institutions and processes have time and again been manipulated by the ruling party to keep itself in power. There have been rampant claims of voter suppression, electoral fraud, and influence on the judiciary. Such actions have provoked mass protests and are negatively correlated with trust in the political system.

The BNP, on the other hand, has failed to maintain a grip on relevance and mobilize effective resistance against the ruling party. Party leadership saw a process of weakening through arrests, legal tangles, and internal bickering. Key opposition figures, including BNP leader Khaleda Zia, have been imprisoned on charges that numerous observers believe are politically motivated. This has crippled the party’s ability to function effectively as a counterbalance to the ruling party.

Other than the political rivalry between AL and BNP, there are other political factors and movements that contribute to this instability. Another prominent contributing factor in acting on the political chessboard is the Islamist group Jamaat-e-Islami, sometimes in alliance with the BNP and other times for their interests. These have cocoons to more polarization and violence.

The current government’s approach to dissent has raised highly worrying concerns regarding human rights and freedom of expression. Crackdowns on protests, arbitrary arrests, and restrictions on media freedom have been a concern received with a lot of condemnation from local and international human rights bodies. These actions have not only stifled any form of dissent but also created an atmosphere of fearful repression, in essence exacerbating the political instability.

These efforts could pile more political unrest, as a matter of next general elections being due. Most, however, remains to be a free, fair, and transparent election which will restore the public’s faith in the democratic process. It would require a lot of reforms, though, and the determined purpose to hold democratic principles by all political actors.

For this to happen, political behavior characterized by inclusion and participation in practices must be achieved in Bangladesh. Initiatives that might act as bridges between the ruling party and the opposition and protect the rights of all political actors, coupled with an independent democratic institution, will declare an end to the vicious cycle of political instability; otherwise, the chain reaction of deteriorating political conditions is likely to continue and will have far-reaching implications for the overall stability and development of the country.

Economic Challenges

Economically, Bangladesh has managed to be well on the growth path in the last decade aided by the dynamic garment industry and tremendous inflows of remittances from workers abroad. Both these two sectors are facing devastation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, which is causing a diminished economic activity scenario in the country and seeing a higher trend in unemployment. Inflation has exerted more pressure on the economic stability of the country, driven by global disruptions to the supply chain and domestic challenges. The Government can save the economy in the country by its fiscal policies and allowing the international loans in the short-run as well by letting other economic activities such as technology, agriculture, services to be diversified and made robust in long run.

Social IssuesOn the social front, Bangladesh faces challenges related to human rights, freedom of speech, and minority rights. ile the domestic civil society and political opposition groups have critically denounced reports of media censorship, enforced disappearances, and discrimination against minority communities, the same have been wickedly slammed by the leading international human rights groups. This needs to be taken care of instantly to bring about a more satisfactory social harmony and international standing. The Rohingya refugee crisis is still very much in place, with more than a million living in badly vulnerable conditions in Cox’s Bazar camps. Long-term solutions involving international cooperation and regional diplomacy are critical to fixing this crisis.

Environmental Concerns

In reality, Bangladesh is highly affected by the menace of climate change, including natural disasters—floods, cyclones, and riverbank erosion—that happen quite often and take a heavy toll on both lives and sources of livelihood. Though steps of the government in creating climate-ready infrastructures and community-based climate resilience are welcome, the moves need to be more elaborate and in sustainable planning. Otherwise, investment in renewable energy, disaster management systems, and environmental concern will be pivotal at parrying the effects against adverse climate change.

Looking ahead, the future of Bangladesh will depend on how it negotiates, as a nation, the current challenges that loom large upon it. Key in this is establishing political stability through inclusive governance, ensuring an economic recovery and diversification, protection of human rights, and building climate resilience. International relationships and investments can offer a supportive role, with the whole onus on the leadership of the nation and its people to drive sustainable and inclusive growth.

In conclusion, while Bangladesh faces significant instability today, the nation’s history of overcoming adversity offers hope. By addressing its current challenges with strategic foresight and collective effort, Bangladesh can aspire to a more stable and prosperous future.

Deepika Mann
Deepika Mann
Dr. Deepika Mann is an Assistant Professor specializing in International Relations and Political Science, with a strong academic focus on gender equality and women’s empowerment. A certified specialist in women’s empowerment, Dr. Mann has actively contributed to advancing gender discourse through both research and teaching. Her scholarly work includes authoring books and contributing to several edited volumes, journals, and online platforms on pressing global issues.