Chinese intelligence and military circles analyze the Abraham Accords between the Gulf states, the Middle East, and Israel as not merely peace treaties but rather the infrastructure for a technological and military alliance linking advanced Israeli technologies with Gulf financial capabilities under an American umbrella, aimed at countering China. Beijing is also closely monitoring the expansion of these Abraham Accords with Israel to include important Asian countries, such as Kazakhstan’s (in Central Asia) accession, and the potential implications this has for China’s national security. Therefore, Beijing fears that this Israeli-Gulf axis, operating under the auspices of the Abraham Accords, could provide Washington with a robust regional intelligence network capable of monitoring Chinese military and technological movements, particularly along vital maritime routes and in ports. Thus, official Chinese analyses and research indicate that the Abraham Accords have transcended the concept of traditional diplomatic peace to become a strategic network, primarily backed by the United States, aimed at containing China’s growing influence in the Middle East. Chinese experts and military, intelligence, and think tanks concerned with the Middle East analyze that joint regional projects, which will combine Israeli technology with Gulf capital under the guise of the Israeli Abraham Accords, could constitute a successful counterbalance, reducing China’s dominance in the telecommunications and infrastructure sectors in the Middle East and the Gulf region, compared to other Western and American initiatives.
In this context, Chinese strategists and military analysts view the Abraham Accords as a comprehensive security and economic system, not merely a bilateral diplomatic step between each Gulf state individually and Israel. This Chinese reading is based on a number of dimensions, which it considers an American and Israeli step to re-engineer alliances in the Middle East and the Gulf at the expense of China. Chinese research centers believe that the Abraham Accords aim to integrate some regional powers into a single defense and economic axis supported by Washington, thus establishing a regional structure that isolates competing powers such as China and Iran and limits Beijing’s geopolitical and economic expansion opportunities. Beijing understands that the normalization of Gulf-Israeli relations under the guise of the Abraham Accords opens up alternative trade routes, infrastructure, and logistical networks, such as the planned Israeli-Gulf-Indian-European connectivity projects, like the (India-Israel Corridor), which would connect the Middle East to Europe. This could marginalize China’s Belt and Road Initiative and counterbalance and weaken China’s diplomatic influence. Chinese intelligence and military circles analyze the paradox of the Abraham Accords, which China views as a (preemptive move) by Washington to bolster its influence at a time when Chinese diplomacy in the region has intensified. This is evidenced by Beijing’s mediation of agreements such as the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement in March 2023 and the Beijing Declaration for Palestinian factions and reconciliation among the various Palestinian factions and movements on July 23, 2024, following the Gaza War. Therefore, China is addressing this reality by strengthening its role as a development power and a neutral peace broker, relying on its balanced strategic and economic relations with all parties to protect its vital interests in the region and the Gulf.
Here, Chinese intelligence and military agencies view the expansion of the Abraham Accords, at the invitation of the Trump administration, as an American strategy aimed primarily at containing China’s rise, restructuring the regional security system to serve American hegemony, and encircling Beijing’s economic and security interests in the Middle East. The implications of this call are crystallized in a number of Chinese strategic analyses that analyzed the significance of the American call to expand the circle of Abraham Accords with Israel among the Gulf and Middle Eastern states as a kind of dual containment strategy. Chinese intelligence agencies analyze that integrating Israel with the Gulf powers in a security and technological alliance led by Washington aims to create a Middle Eastern NATO dedicated to intelligence and military monitoring and confronting Chinese and Iranian influence together and works to restrict the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative. The success of the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East depends on the stability of the region. Therefore, Beijing assesses the Abraham Accords as a tool that may lead to increased regional polarization and ignite new conflicts, which threatens energy security and vital trade routes for China. China’s massive investments in infrastructure and ports, such as Khalifa Port in the UAE and Duqm Port in Oman, are based on the security through development equation. Therefore, expanding the Abraham Accords will lead to restricting Chinese expansion. Here, Beijing views US-backed initiatives, such as the Abraham Accords in particular, as alternatives and direct competitors to China’s Belt and Road Initiative and aims to reduce regional dependence on Chinese technology and financing, such as 5G networks from the Chinese company Huawei.
China also views these American attempts to expand the Abraham Accords as a (deliberate effort to distance the Gulf states from Beijing). Trump’s call for the Gulf and the Middle East to join the Abraham Accords with Israel is seen as political and economic blackmail aimed at forcing Gulf states to choose between expanding investment and technological partnerships with China or submitting to the American-Israeli security umbrella. Chinese intelligence, military, defense, and security concerns are that expanding the Abraham Accords in the Gulf and the Middle East will ignite an arms and technology race between Washington and Beijing. Israel’s technological integration with some Gulf states raises concerns within the Chinese military establishment about the infiltration of advanced Western and American surveillance and espionage tools into the region, which Beijing considers a direct threat to the security of its networks and infrastructure throughout the Middle East. For China, this falls within the framework of the dilemma of regional and political polarization aimed at igniting conflicts and primarily isolating Iran. China believes that building an alliance primarily directed against Iran weakens diplomatic efforts and prevents the establishment of a comprehensive security system. This is evidenced by the widespread regional escalation and instability, which negatively impacts global trade and supply chains. Therefore, China adopts the principle of alternative diplomacy. As a response to the US and Israeli polarization policies against it, China sponsored the Saudi-Iranian reconciliation to offer an alternative model based on de-escalation through diplomacy, thus protecting its economic interests and the Belt and Road Initiative from the repercussions of any comprehensive regional conflict.
From my readings of the political landscape within Beijing, I can decipher the Chinese intelligence and military perspective on these Abraham Accords, which they view as a form of technological containment and a way to fill the American void in the face of China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Beijing sees the Abraham Accords as a cornerstone for competing projects such as the India-Middle East-Europe-Israel Economic Corridor (IMEC). This aims to thwart Chinese expansion and marginalize Chinese technology. Washington is using these Gulf-Abraham partnerships to pressure for the replacement of Chinese telecommunications technology (particularly Huawei’s 5G networks) with Western and Israeli alternatives in the Gulf. This would solidify digital hegemony. The Chinese concern lies in the fear of an American technological Iron Curtain that would prevent Chinese companies from accessing vital markets and data in the region and the Gulf, especially if Gulf capital is combined with innovation. Israel, within the framework of its financing and innovation policy, has seen a surge in investment following the signing of the Abraham Accords, which is detrimental to China’s security. Chinese reports have documented a massive influx of Gulf capital into Israeli companies specializing in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and semiconductors. Beijing fears that this Gulf-Israeli alliance, forged in the context of the Abraham Accords, could lead to the creation of technological and military supply chains entirely independent of China and resistant to economic pressure. This, in turn, threatens China’s integrated military and security infrastructure and defense systems in the Gulf and the Middle East. The Chinese armed forces, represented by the People’s Liberation Army PLA, view with concern the integration of Israeli radar and air defense systems with US and Gulf bases (under the umbrella of US Central Command CENTCOM) as a direct threat to the security of China and its allies in the region. This integration is seen as a direct threat to the security of China and its allies in the region. This Abraham Accords, a Gulf-Israeli alliance, also threatens China’s cybersecurity. Beijing believes that this Gulf-Israeli intelligence and technological cooperation grants the United States and its allies superior capabilities in digital espionage, network disruption, and cyberattacks, potentially jeopardizing its security investments in the region.
Based on the preceding analysis, we understand that China views the Abraham Accords (launched to normalize relations between Israel and several Arab and Gulf states) as a strategic shift reshaping alliances in the Middle East. Beijing is balancing its concerns about the expansion of American and Israeli influence in the region and the Gulf at the expense of its own Belt and Road Initiative projects and investments due to the regional and political polarization created by the Washington-sponsored Abraham Accords.
