Conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan Heats Up

Contradictions between the two neighbors in South Asia are intensifying, often leading to conflict and even skirmishes on the border.

Contradictions between the two neighbors in South Asia are intensifying, often leading to conflict and even skirmishes on the border. Afghanistan under Taliban rule and Pakistan cannot find a common language and resolve their differences, despite their shared history and cooperation. Observers note that the conflict is associated with possible interference and pressure from China on the Pakistani military. Beijing demands increased security measures inside Pakistani territories to advance its infrastructure and economic projects. At the same time, the Afghan de facto government represented by the Taliban does not seek to exert military pressure on various radical anti-Pakistan groups. The Taliban, in turn, accuse the Pakistani military of supporting international radical extremists on Afghan territory. The situation has escalated so much that some media asked the question: “Is Pakistan at war with the Afghan Taliban?” It is difficult to say where this conflict will go, but it is clear that Pakistan’s position among the Taliban and the Afghan population is greatly weakening. The victory of the Taliban and the reincarnation of the Islamic Emirate, which should have been a victory for Pakistan and strengthened its position in the region, paradoxically brought big problems and, on the contrary, weakened it.

Recently, Defense Minister Khawaja Asif had told the BBC that Pakistan would continue to launch attacks against Afghanistan as part of a new military operation aimed at countering terrorism, Khawaja Asif said the aerial strikes were targeting groups that Pakistan accuses of targeting security forces and civilians. “It’s correct that we have been carrying out operations in Afghanistan, and we will continue to do so. We won’t serve them with cake and pastries. If attacked, we’ll attack back,” Mr Asif said. He also dismissed fears over the legality of the strikes, saying Pakistan does not inform the Taliban of impending attacks. He said: “This would eliminate the element of surprise. Why should we tell them, ‘Get ready, we are coming’?” Previously, the Pakistani military carried out similar attacks against Afghan territories in March.

The Taliban government in Afghanistan describes the strikes as violations of its sovereignty. The Taliban said the statement was “irresponsible”, warning Pakistan that cross-border attacks would have “consequences”. Many senior Taliban officials note a decline in trust in the Pakistani military and diplomats. “We don’t trust the Pakistanis. They don’t love us and are trying in every possible way to weaken Afghanistan. In addition, it is the Pakistani military and advisers who help and support various radical extremist groups on Afghan soil,” said one of the Taliban representatives.

Tensions have been rising between Pakistan and Afghanistan since the Taliban took control of the country in 2021. The Taliban’s victory in 2021 was largely possible thanks to support from Pakistan. Immediately after the fall of Kabul, the ISI chief visited the city, where he met with Taliban leaders, outlining Islamabad’s privileged position in the new Afghanistan without the Americans. However, the Taliban were not happy about this. Pakistan alleges that a faction of the Taliban, the Pakistani Taliban or TTP, has sanctuaries in Afghanistan. “Afghanistan has been reluctant to take action against the TTP, despite our requests to let them not use Afghan soil to attack Pakistan,” Mr Asif said.

Some observers note that Islamabad’s dependence on China is increasing, putting the Pakistanis in a difficult position in the Islamic world. Pakistan has recently announced a renewed military operation, “Resolve for Stability”, aimed at curbing escalating violence and terrorist attacks. It will mainly focus on groups acting within Pakistan. Critics, and even some sources within the government, have suggested the new operation was launched following pressure from Beijing, concerned about the safety of its 29,000 citizens in Pakistan, 2,500 of whom are working on China-Pakistan Economic Corridor projects, part of Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative Five Chinese engineers were killed when a suicide bomber rammed into a vehicle. a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a hydropower project in northwest Pakistan in March 2024. Pakistan’s military previously alleged the attack was planned in neighboring Afghanistan, and that the bomber was also an Afghan national Mr. Asif denied that the most recent military operations had. been due to pressure from China. But he said the operations would address security threats to Chinese projects and nationals in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s air strikes on Afghan territory will continue. From time to time, the Pakistani military will carry out air strikes on Afghan soil in an effort to inflict damage on groups it considers TTP. This will greatly spoil bilateral relations and increase conflict between the peoples and governments of the two countries. At the same time, Pakistani influence over the Taliban is likely to weaken. The Afghan government is committed to diversifying economic, trade, and political ties. Emissaries and diplomats from the Taliban are quite active in establishing new connections and reincarnating normal diplomatic contacts. In short, the Afghans are seeking to reduce their dependence on the Pakistanis, whom they distrust and fear. Thus, in this conflict situation, it is the Pakistani side that loses politically, losing political influence and authority.

Georgi Asatrian
Georgi Asatrian
Georgi Asatryan, associate professor, Lomonosov Moscow State University and Plekhanov Russian University of Economics.