Chinese leaders and think tanks closely followed the assassination of Hamas political bureau chief Ismail Haniyeh at his residence north of Tehran at dawn on Wednesday, July 31, 2024, in the heart of Iran, and the manner in which it was carried out in the Iranian capital, Tehran, raises Chinese fears of strong reactions that could lead to the current war in Gaza escalating into a regional war that would go beyond the rules of engagement known so far between Israel and what is known as the “Axis of Resistance in the Arab Region”. The public Chinese fear of the repercussions of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran came only twelve hours after an Israeli drone raid on the southern suburbs of the Lebanese capital, Beirut, for which the Israeli army claimed responsibility and said that it targeted the prominent Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr, in his capacity as the closest aide to Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah. According to my analysis of the general political and military scene of the Chinese – and as an internationally known expert in Chinese political affairs – according to my accurate perception, which I convey to the Chinese and the entire international community, the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh was also intended to send American and Israeli political messages to the Chinese only a few days after the Chinese capital, Beijing, hosted all the Palestinian resistance factions to unify their ranks and reject their differences under Chinese sponsorship, because the killing of a politician in the Hamas movement of the stature of “Haniyeh” could return the chances of reaching an agreement between the Palestinian and Israeli parties to zero according to the Chinese analyses themselves, as if the Americans and Israelis were sending a direct message of defiance to the Chinese not to interfere in the affairs of the Middle East, and the futility of the Chinese efforts made to unify the ranks of the Palestinian resistance and direct it against the Israelis, especially the “Islamic Jihad” movement, which is officially classified internationally as a terrorist movement, and which the Chinese capital, Beijing, officially hosted among the Palestinian resistance factions. The assassination scenario of “Ismail Haniyeh”, including the choice of target, time and place, represents a dangerous message from Israel and the United States to China and its allies in Tehran, especially on the day of the inauguration of the new Iranian president, which is supposed to be the most critical security moment in Tehran. According to the analysis of the scene, this means that China is unable to protect, arm and equip its allies in the Middle East in the face of Tel Aviv and Washington. It is as if Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu wanted, by directing this strike in Tehran against Ismail Haniyeh, to relieve himself of the burden of negotiations, as his goals are based on the issue of eliminating Hamas, to extend to Hezbollah, and then confronting Iran. While Beijing believed that an understanding with Iran could end the division on all fronts, paving the way for a comprehensive regional settlement in the Middle East under Chinese sponsorship. Regarding reaching a peace agreement, the Chinese fear that the relationship in the region has deteriorated, and the assassination of “Haniyeh” will not pass as a normal matter, which may lead to the region witnessing a military escalation that reaches the level of a regional war.
Here, the timing and place of the assassination of the head of the political bureau of Hamas “Ismail Haniyeh”, raises many question marks for the Chinese themselves, as it comes in the midst of accelerated Chinese talks to complete a major peace deal that will return it to the forefront of the Middle East as an effective political and strategic player, to stop the war in Gaza, and exchange hostages between Israel and Hamas. This will certainly have negative effects on the progress of these talks, and perhaps lead to a setback for them. The assassination of Haniyeh will also strike at the Chinese efforts themselves to reach a peace agreement in the Middle East, and Israel aims through it to send a fierce military message, with the Israelis moving from targeting military leaders to targeting political leaders themselves. This undermines the Chinese efforts made to establish peace and stop the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and Palestinian Rafah.
The Chinese fear that the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh will completely halt the ceasefire talks in the first stage between the Palestinians and the Israelis, as Hamas cannot taking another position after the assassination of the head of its political bureau. However, a number of other political, military, strategic and academic analyses inside China tend to believe that this phase will not necessarily last long, and may establish a new phase of negotiations, and an attempt by the American and Israeli sides to impose their conditions on the table, in light of the Iranian current within Hamas receiving strong blows, the latest of which was the assassination of “Haniyeh”, preceded by the assassination of his deputy “Saleh al-Arouri”, and the assassination of another group of prominent military leaders in Gaza. The new Chinese analyses and point of view tend to indicate that the possibility of choosing “Khaled Meshaal” as head of the Hamas political bureau will lead to a “new phase of negotiations” with what he represents as a “ traditional Brotherhood current led by the banned Brotherhood group in Egypt and a number of countries in the region with reserved positions on the alliance with Iran”.
The Chinese leaders also did not miss following and analyzing the statements of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Wednesday, July 31, 2024, during a press conference, and his confirmation that Israel had launched direct strikes against Hamas, the Lebanese Hezbollah, and the Houthis in Yemen during the past periods. With the Chinese focus on Netanyahu’s admission of the assassination of Hezbollah leader “Fouad Shukr”, by his admission that we Israelis “yesterday eliminated the Hezbollah leader Fouad Shukr, who was responsible for the killing of children, and was one of the most wanted terrorists around the world, and the United States had put a bounty on his head.” Netanyahu’s own confirmation that “Fouad Shukr was responsible for the operations that targeted our citizens in the north”, and that “anyone who attacks Israel will pay a heavy price”. Netanyahu also added “We in Israel are eliminating thousands of Hamas fighters and infrastructure, and had it not been for that, we would not have controlled the Philadelphi Corridor, and worked to return our citizens to their homes. We achieved all of this because we did not surrender despite the pressures from within and without”.
After the killing of “Ismail Haniyeh”, China strictly followed all statements by the Israeli authorities and their officials regarding the incident, while the Israeli authorities did not comment on the incident, and the Israeli army was satisfied with saying “it is assessing the situation without issuing new security directives for civilians”. Taking into account that Israel usually does not comment on its foreign operations, this attack – from a Chinese analytical point of view – may have followed the same pattern used in the Israeli operation that targeted Iranian air defenses surrounding its nuclear facilities on April 19, 2024. The Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a statement that the targeting would “transfer the battle to new dimensions, and would cause major repercussions for the entire region”.
Here, the Chinese Foreign Ministry, along with its Russian ally, considered the assassination of the head of the Hamas Political Bureau “Ismail Haniyeh”, to be “an absolutely unacceptable political crime that will lead to further escalation of tensions”. All official Chinese media outlets considered the killing of Haniyeh to be “an absolutely unacceptable political crime”. The killing of Ismail Haniyeh made headlines in all Chinese newspapers and media outlets under the supervision of the ruling Communist Party in China, which considered the killing of “Ismail Haniyeh” to be “a completely unacceptable political murder that will lead to further escalation of tensions”, noting that: the killing of Haniyeh “will have negative repercussions on the ceasefire talks in Gaza”. Here, China, which has relations with Arab countries, Iran, Hamas, and all Palestinian and Arab resistance movements, usually denounces violence in the region. China always accuses the United States of ignoring the necessity of an independent Palestinian state and causing the ignition of the cycle and fuse of ongoing violence in the region. Therefore, the Chinese strong condemnation of the repercussions of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh came through the strict Chinese warning of the possibility that this will lead to “further instability in the regional situation.” This was officially stated by the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman “Lin Jian”, in an official Chinese statement in which he confirmed: “We are deeply concerned about the incident and strongly oppose and condemn the assassination”.
The most prominent headlines and headlines of Chinese newspapers and official media outlets described the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh” as, “Haniyeh’s martyrdom will increase the determination and stubbornness of the resistance fighters in all resistance arenas to continue the path of jihad”, with the Chinese press describing Ismail Haniyeh as “one of the great resistance leaders who bravely stood up” to the American hegemony project and the Israeli occupation. Other Chinese headlines described the assassination of Haniyeh as a “heinous terrorist crime and a flagrant violation of international law,” noting that his assassination “represents a huge loss for the Palestinians at a critical stage of the confrontation with Israel”. A number of other official Chinese media outlets described the killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran as a “heinous crime”, coinciding with China’s condemnation in the strongest terms of the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, in his capacity as head of the political bureau of the Islamic Resistance Movement in Palestine (Hamas) in the Iranian capital, Tehran, and considered it a heinous crime, a dangerous escalation, and a flagrant violation of international and humanitarian law. The Chinese agreement that “Israel’s assassination of Haniyeh is a serious violation of international laws and an escalating crime that will lead to more tension and chaos in the region”.
As for the impact of the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh” on relations between China and Israel, here China believes that Israeli Prime Minister “Netanyahu” has used the method of procrastination and inventing new conditions to delay negotiations with the Palestinians under the auspices of China, primarily after Beijing adopted a meeting days before the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh” to bring together the views of all Palestinian resistance factions and reject their differences under Chinese auspices. The Chinese believe that the visit of Israeli Prime Minister “Benjamin Netanyahu” several days before the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh” to Washington “gave him the green light to do what he wanted”, and that the contents of the speech delivered by “Netanyahu” in the US Congress highlighted this. With the presence of Chinese political and military analyses – which the Egyptian researcher, as an expert in Chinese political affairs, has worked hard to obtain and analyze with great precision – confirming that Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu has been able to read the scene well during the past period, starting with the numerous targeting of Iranian interests and its consulate in Damascus and the statement of the new Iranian president who gave priority to Tehran’s interests. Here, the Chinese believe that Israeli Prime Minister “Netanyahu” has understood the state of collapse and fragility that this axis of Palestinian, Lebanese, Iranian and Yemeni resistance and opposition is going through, represented in particular by the Houthi militia close to Tehran, at all its security, military and strategic levels to direct a preemptive strike against them by assassinating Ismail Haniyeh in the heart of Tehran itself, which is a matter of serious significance as I have explained before.
Finally, China has now thrown the ball back into the United States’ court, by sending messages to the Americans, telling them that the United States must strive to contain the escalating situation in the region and between the Palestinians and the Israelis, especially after the American green light was given to Israel to assassinate “Ismail Haniyeh” according to the Chinese vision, because the extension of that war, from the Chinese point of view, will not be in the interest of the United States and its interests in the region and achieving the peace and stability desired by all parties. Rather, the assassination of “Ismail Haniyeh” according to the Chinese, “is only in Netanyahu’s interest”, because this war currently raging between Israel and Hamas in the heart of the Gaza Strip and Palestinian Rafah serves the current Israeli government led by “Netanyahu” and his supporters from the leaders of the army and war and its policy, which aims to strike the Palestinian people and liquidate their cause, according to what the Chinese analysis has reached, which I am conveying to the countries of the region and to everyone.
