The Belt and Road Initiative (โBRIโ) represents the Peopleโs Republic of Chinaโs (โChinaโ) strategic economic and political interests in asserting its role as a global superpower[i]. It links China with other regions through the development of infrastructure, including highways, railroads, sea routes, and ports. Unlike the region-specific and nation-States centric of โOld Regionalismโ (e.g., the European Union, ASEAN, African Union, etc), BRI involves broader regions, diverse actors, and does not aim to integrate national economies[ii]. Attracting more than 100 participating countries to date[iii], BRI can be discerned through the New Regionalism Theory specifically, given that the focus of Old Regionalism on region-specific, nation-States and supranationalism, is increasingly criticised for its ineffectiveness. The exercising of caution by BRI host countriesโ is essential when weighing their political independence versus an economic dependence on China. Moreover, what is the significance of the Indo-Pacific region in this apparent New Regionalism?
Old and New Regionalism
Regionalism entails the process through which nation-states within the same geographic region agree on certain rules to govern their interactions in achieving shared objectives[iv]. A region, whilst characterised by shared historical experience and concerns among countries within a distinct geographic area, is also a social construct formed through social interaction rather than merely natural entities[v]. Old Regionalism, born in Post World-War-II and deriving from scholars of European integration, focused on three elements: (1) economic and trade relations amongst nation-states, (2) regional integration which began with free-trade agreements between the more-advanced monetary, market, economic and political unions, and (3) institutional governance underpinned by international treaties and regional institutions including the European Unionโs Commission, Parliament, and Central Bank[vi][vii]. The European Commission negotiates trade agreements on behalf of the Union and is a supranational authority with powers of enforcement, a level of regionalism that cannot be fully adopted by other associations of nations such as ASEAN[1], SAARC[2], and IORA[3] in the Indo-Pacific region due to their principle of non-interference in member-statesโ sovereignty, which contradicts the supranationalism of the EU[4].
The New Regionalism Theory (โNRTโ) emerged in the late 1990s as a critique to the European-centric economic and political path-dependent model of integration. World transformations of significance, including economic globalisation, revolutionary technologies, and complex transnational interactions, require a multidisciplinary and holistic approach when addressing regional integration[viii] including paying greater attention to the interconnectedness and interdependence brought by globalisation and its rapidly changing economic system[ix], New Regionalism involves spontaneous processes resulting from both endogenous and exogenous factors and bottom-up institutional buildings[x]. Not limited to region- specific and nation-sates, NRT considers sub-regional integration, diverse socio-cultural and political influences, non-trade issues, and regional cooperation through significant roles for non-state actors including NGOs and companies as sources of expertise, finance, technology, and human rights[xi]. The overarching goal is neither a national economyโs liberalisation nor integration but stronger global multilateralism. The following sections highlight how BRI may signify New Regionalism.
The Belt and Road Initiative (โBRIโ) and the Indo-Pacific Region
In 2013 Chinaโs President Xi Jinping introduced two initiatives: (1) the “Silk Road Economic Belt” to link China and Europe through Central Asia, and (2) the “21st-Century Maritime Silk Road” linking Southeast Asia, South Asia, Africa, and Europe through sea routes[xii][xiii], collectively forming the BRI. Representing China’s strategy to enhance its economic development, BRI also asserts its role as a global economic and governance superpower[xiv]. It links China with other regions through infrastructure development including highways, railroads, sea routes, and ports[xv] targeting Asia, Europe, and Africa, together accounting for 64% of the global population and 30% of its GDP[xvi]. BRI, whose main objectives include policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial integration, and socio-cultural exchange[xvii], considers the Indo-Pacific Region central to its success.
The term “Indo-Pacific” describes the region stretching from the Indian to Pacific oceans, and is home to over two-thirds of the global economy and half of the worldโs population[xviii]. The Indian Ocean alone, home of associations of nations such as ASEAN, SAARC, IORA, and African Union, supports 35% of the worldโs population, 19% of global GDP, 90% of transited global trade, and 80% of oil exports[xix] The worldโs fast-growing economies are also located in this region including India, Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, and China[xx]. The region’s vast territory and strategic position, natural resources, and economic potential make it geopolitically significant attracting global powers whose interests often intersect and clash.
Two centuries ago the USA[5] increased its diplomatic presence within the region and consistently highlighted the vital importance of the regionโs stability, prosperity, and security[xxi]. Initially, China rejected the Indo-Pacific concept describing it as a “retrogression of history” and a “come-back of Cold-War mentalityโ[xxii], viewing this regional governance framework as a hindrance to BRI projects and affecting both its domestic and trans-regional security[xxiii]. Different concepts of โIndo-Pacificโ have been proposed, although none has provided a novel approach relevant to the rise of China’s power in the region[xxiv]. โStructuralistsโ view the creation of the Indo-Pacific region as an attempt by controllers of transnational capital to boost trade-liberalisation, easing their way to secure business locations with lower tax, cheaper labour, and weak environmental laws, supported by hegemonic State initiatives to gain control over the region[xxv]. Constructivists would argue that the Indo-Pacific region is socially constructed through political discourse amongst countries rather than a distinct physical geography[xxvi]. Nevertheless, in 2021 China finally engaged with and supported the โIndo-Pacificโ as a region[xxvii], specifically in relation to ASEAN as its strategic partner in the region[xxviii].
BRIโs Multi-Dimensional Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific Region
Some of BRIโs main objectives relating to policy coordination, infrastructure connectivity, unimpeded trade, financial cooperation, and socio-cultural exchange[xxix] are highly evident in the Region.
Reaching $80B annually between 2013 and 2017, BRIโs infrastructure-based investment has also expanded to financing emerging markets and developing economies with $16B committed annually[xxx]. One of the largest BRI projects is in Pakistan, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (โCPECโ), which aims to strengthen the geographic ties, trade and business flows of countries within the sub-region, including Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and the Central Asian Republics[xxxi][xxxii]. Launched in 2015 this $60B CPEC includes energy projects and transport infrastructure[xxxiii].
ASEAN, a key player in the Indo-Pacific, plays a central role in BRI through the following: (1) the establishment of an ASEAN-China policy framework, and (2) bilateral ties by ASEAN member States with China[xxxiv]. The former includes the โ2+7 Cooperation Frameworkโ, comprising a two-point political consensus on strategic trust and mutually beneficial economic development, and a seven-point priority in maritime, finance, security, environment, and people-to-people cooperation. The China-ASEAN Free Trade Agreement and Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank were proposed under this framework. An example of bilateral ties is Indonesia hosting 21,022 BRIโs projects amounting to $30.2B between 2019 and early 2024, due to its strategic-geographical position connecting the Pacific and Indian Oceans[xxxv][xxxvi]. Economic cooperation often results in the strengthening of political ties, and in 2023 China and Indonesia released a Joint Statement on Deepening Comprehensive Strategic Cooperation[xxxvii], followed by Indonesiaโs reassurance in early 2024 of the bilateral relationshipโs progress with a further commitment to build a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two nations[xxxviii].
One feature of BRIโs policy is its adherence to the principle of non-interference in host countries internal affairs, such that investments in infrastructure projects are conducted without any conditionality[xxxix], echoing the ASEAN Way[xl] and other associations of nations, including the African Union, SAARC, and IORA in which member-countries are engaged within BRI.
Within the socio-cultural domain, ASEAN and China continue developing robust cooperation, including through the “ASEAN-China Youth Exchange Visit” programme that aims to foster a sense of belonging, good neighbourly relations, and regional citizenship. It also aims to enhance awareness of ASEAN-China cooperation and provide a platform for youth to share knowledge, experiences, and challenges relating to educational and leadership development[xli].
Epilogue: how can BRI host countries achieve political independence whilst heavily dependent economically on Chinaโs investment?
The implementation of BRI projects in the Indo-Pacific signifies the New Regionalism, emphasising multi-dimensional cooperation, diverse actors, flexible structures, (sub)regional interdependence, and non-interference in host countriesโ political affairs. BRI has showcased how regional cooperation can be conducted beyond being region-specific and without supranationalism. BRI appears to have reshaped regional dynamics and has fostered greater connectivity and regional integration. However, its apparent success needs to be compounded with cautious consideration by BRI host countries.
How may host countries maintain their political independence whilst heavily reliant on Chinaโs investments? This โdependency dilemmaโ is evident in the South China Sea conflict where ASEAN countries struggle to balance their actions towards China in territorial disputes whilst also securing their economic interests.
(Sub)-regional associations of nations within the Indo-Pacific region must advance their cooperative framework to maximise the probability for securing the benefits of BRI and minimise โcapital flightโ.
Economic diversification through improving economic ties and promoting strategic infrastructure development with other countries or associations of nations is paramount to reducing dependency risks.
BRIโs policy of โnon-interferenceโ, whilst enticing for recipient countries, must be critically examined with specific regard to โexternalitiesโ, including the aspects of environmental/biodiversity degradation and equity benefit distribution to local communities
Lastly, on the notion of the โIndo-Pacific Regionโ, whilst this may be seen as a social construction by some analysts increasing disputes are witnessed in the area. These range from disputes on territorial sovereignty to rights of resource extraction and the development of infrastructure, to (non)human transnational issues, both amongst countries within the Region but also by global powers from the outside. Evident also is the recent divergence in the paths of economies with Japan falling into recession, Chinaโs property crisis slowing its economic growth, Indiaโs rapid economic growth economy, and Indonesia expected to surpass Russia’s economy. These factors highlight the importance of understanding regional dynamics and integration through a more comprehensive lens that includes multiple actors, broader and inclusive regions, and multi-disciplinary knowledge. The New regionalism theory holds such a promise.
[1] ASEAN (Association of South East Asian Nations)
[2] SAARC (South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation)
[3] IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association)
[4] EU (European Union)
[5] USA (United States of America)
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[viii] Ibid.
[ix] Yuzhu, W. (2021). New Regionalism Reshaping the Future of Globalization. China Quarterly of International Strategic Studies, 6, 249โ254. https://doi.org/10.1142/s2377740020500116
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