The war that started on February 28 with a major Israeli-U. S. bombing campaign against Iran has deeply affected the entire Middle East, causing significant damage to infrastructures and economies, while changing beliefs about regional security. Following this, in March, Israel began a ground invasion of Lebanon targeting Hezbollah fighters after they fired across the border in support of Iran.
In Iran, the airstrikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and numerous officials, but the ruling power seems strong with Khamenei’s son taking over and the Revolutionary Guards gaining more strength. Thousands of Iranians, including many children, died during relentless U. S.-Israeli strikes. Despite the recent crackdown on protests against their government, there has been little organized domestic opposition. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been effective, serving as a deterrent. However, the war’s damage and port blockades threaten Iran’s economy and could cause more internal unrest. Iran’s retaliation against Gulf states and Israel’s ongoing attacks on Hezbollah may isolate Tehran in the region.
Israel successfully targeted many Iranian commanders and military sites, managing to intercept most missiles; however, the war’s original goals remain unmet, with Iran still intact and posing a missile threat. In Lebanon, Israel has caused significant damage to Hezbollah and established a buffer zone, although this strategy may result in prolonged occupation with little hope for peace. Israel’s actions, particularly following criticism over the Gaza conflict, could strain its relationships with key Western allies.
Lebanon is experiencing the highest losses, with thousands killed and extensive destruction. Israel’s strikes displaced many people, creating large areas of abandonment in the south. Despite a ceasefire in April, airstrikes continue, and some villages have been completely destroyed. The U. S. and Israel demand that the Lebanese government disarm Hezbollah, a move that could worsen sectarian divides amid a history of civil conflict.
In the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Iranian strikes have targeted it more than its neighbors, leading to damage in civilian areas and energy facilities. The UAE has responded by strengthening ties with the U. S. and Israel and advocating for a tough stance in peace talks with Iran. Its ability to export oil via a pipeline partly bypassing the Strait of Hormuz helps it withstand disruptions, but the ongoing war threatens its position as a global economic hub.
Saudi Arabia, the largest Gulf monarchy, can export oil through a different route and is benefiting from high oil prices, but the war poses long-term risks to its economic plans, known as Vision 2030. This conflict also raises questions about its foreign policy and security reliance on the U. S. and its recent thawing relations with Iran.
Qatar has maintained diplomatic ties with Tehran but has shut down its liquefied natural gas production due to the conflict. An attack on its North Field gas facilities by Iran has caused significant damage that will take years to repair. Qatar, like other Gulf states, faces security policy challenges as the situation evolves.
In Yemen, the Iran-aligned Houthi group has mostly stayed out of the conflict, despite worries it might disrupt shipping through the Red Sea. Their restrained approach is unclear, but they seem focused on a ceasefire in their civil war.
Iraq has faced little physical damage but will suffer economically due to the blockage of oil exports, which are vital for government income. With its Shi’ite government balancing relations with both the U. S. and Iran, the conflict complicates this relationship, increasing pressure on Baghdad to control Iran-backed militias.
Kuwait, lacking alternative export routes and heavily reliant on the Strait of Hormuz, has seen its export revenues plummet, putting it at a serious risk in the face of ongoing regional instability.
With information from Reuters
