As chairman of the Guomindang (KMT), Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) is currently on a visit to the Chinese mainland with a delegation of KMT officials; a subtle divide within the ranks of the century-old party has been reported on by Western media. Such a divide, between the right wing and the left wing of the party, can be traced to 1925, upon the passing of Premier Sun Yat-sen (孫中山), founder of modern China and the Guomindang.
The KMT, also known as the Nationalist Party of China (中國國民黨), retreated to Taiwan in 1949 after losing the mainland to the Communist Party of China (中國共產黨). The defeated Nationalist regime, under the leadership of President Chiang Kai-shek (蔣中正), attempted to use Taiwan as a military base to launch a counterattack. Washington, however, did not support such an endeavor. As troops with significant combat experience from the Second Sino-Japanese War and the Chinese Civil War retired and martial law ended in 1991, spending on defense decreased significantly under Lee Teng-hui (李登輝). So did the relevance of the KMT, embroiled in internal strife; it lost 5 out of the 7 general elections since 2000. The military, although nationalized in the 1947 constitution, remained the de facto armed wing of the Guomindang till 1991.
The KMT seeks to balance armed deterrence with dovish diplomacy vis-à-vis the mainland. It enjoys a special relationship with Beijing, able to discuss matters of trade and economy, a policy the ruling DPP is unable to pursue due to its pro-independence discourse. Little known to Westerners, the KMT’s and CPC’s (Communist Party of China) relationship dates to 1923, during the First United Front, when both parties collaborated to fight against warlords. The partnership ended when Chiang Kai-shek decided to purge leftist elements of his own party and launched a coup against the CPC. Despite becoming bitter rivals in the subsequent decades, both support the 92 Consensus, which uses the One-China Principle as a basis to maintain the status quo. The KMT’s goal is to maintain good relations with Beijing while supporting a modest level of defense budget. Such spending that is enough to satisfy Washington, but not high enough to trigger a negative reaction from the mainland. The finalization of the defense spending bill will most likely occur in the coming weeks, with the amount significantly less than desired by the ruling DPP (Democratic Progressive Party).
There exists, however, a divide within the party between factions. Not all within the pan-blue camp share the same view on cross-strait relations. Current Chairman Cheng Li-wun’s faction can be characterized as pro-Beijing due to her past criticism of the US and desired further rapprochement with the mainland. Her platform is reminiscent of the KMT’s leftist faction, historically led by Soong Ching-ling (宋慶齡), Sun Yat-sen’s widow and the eldest of the Soong sisters. The KMT leftists have sought closer relations with the Communist Party of China due to ideological alignment. Cheng’s past positions include supporting Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and praising the People’s Liberation Army’s drills around Taiwan. Cheng supports low spending on US arms purchases, as opposed to members of the right-wing faction.
The right-wing faction of the KMT led by Dai Jitao (戴季陶) and Chiang Kai-shek was conservative in essence, focusing on ethnonationalism while rejecting the Marxist concept of class struggle. The modern iteration of the KMT right-wing, although more liberal, can be found in former chairman Eric Chu’s (朱立倫) faction and those around him. It holds a considerably more balanced agenda via the reusage of past strategies employed by President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), which consists of a détente with the mainland whilst increasing investment in defense. During Chu’s tenure as chairman, he did not visit the mainland a single time. On the contrary, he traveled to Washington, reassuring the Americans of his commitment to defense.
Many of the right-wing faction studied in the US. The likes of Jaw Shaw-kong (趙少康), Hau Lung-pin (郝龍斌), Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九), and Johnny Chiang (江啟臣) all pursued graduate or doctorate studies in America. Washington formed many prominent ROC diplomats, such as Frederick Chien (錢復), Lien Chan (連戰), and the well-known Wellington Koo (顧維鈞). Eric Chu himself graduated from NYU with a doctorate in accounting. Current Taipei mayor Chiang Wan-an (蔣萬安), great-grandson of Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek and grandson of late-President Chiang Ching-kuo, remains a mystery. Although he was educated in the United-States by attending UPenn, and worked in silicon valley as a lawyer, his stances have been very moderate. He is well appreciated by all factions due to his prestigious background and great abilities in conducting retail politics, currently having a 70% approval rating in his incoming re-election.
Outgoing Taichung Mayor Lu Shiow-yen (盧秀燕), a second-generation Shandongese and former news anchor, contradicted Cheng Li-wun’s position on defense spending. Lu suggested the purchase of US weapons ought to be between 800 billion New Taiwan dollars and 1 trillion. Cheng, in contrast, suggested 380 billion plus N, meaning a 380 billion base with the possibility of augmenting spending after the US side issues a letter of offer. Lu was expected to run for the party chairmanship against Cheng, obtaining the direct support of then outgoing Chairman Eric Chu. Lu decided not to run for the chairmanship, most likely due to her presidential ambitions. Building momentum before the campaign is significantly more strategic than obtaining the top job 2 years prior, as political attrition can damage one’s reputation.
Contrary to a statement made by Lu’s advisor, the KMT is not inherently a traditional pro-US party. The ideological angst that defines contemporary KMT foreign policy can be traced to the founding of the Chinese Republic, all the way to the Nationalist exodus from the mainland. Sun Yat-sen’s disappointment with Washington occurred when the latter supported self-proclaimed Emperor Yuan Shikai’s self-coup d’état in 1913, instead of helping the democratically elected Guomindang legislators. Chiang Kai-shek, on his end, had significant issues with his American counterpart. Joseph Stilwell’s attempt to assassinate him, George Marshall’s disastrous mission to China, Roosevelt’s offering of Northeast China to the Soviets, and Henry Truman’s unwillingness to assist the government in Nanjing were all problematic for the old president. Nor is it false that severe corruption existed within the Nationalist regime, which both the Chinese populace and Washington figured out. The US was however the only foreign power the KMT could truly rely during the Cold War. Roosevelt provided huge loans to the Nationalist government in 1940, followed by the dispatch of the “Flying Tigers” led by the great Claire Lee Chennault. It kept providing military and financial support to the regime in Taipei.
Cheng’s faction enjoys the support of the veteran party-branch Huang Fu-hsing (黃復興), which provided support for her chairmanship elections in 2025. She appointed Ji Linan (季麟連), former chairman of the Huang Fu-hsing, as a vice-chairman of the KMT. Hsiao Hsu-tsen (蕭旭岑), former director of the Ma Ying-jeou Foundation, has also been appointed vice-chairman. Hsiao has extensive experience in organizing exchanges with the mainland from his previous role at the foundation, such as student exchanges and the second meeting between Chairman Xi Jinping and Ma Ying-jeou. The third vice chairman, Chang Jung-kung (張榮恭), idem to Hsiao, has tremendous experience in cross-strait exchanges. All three VCs were educated in Taiwan, with no exposure to the US.
Tensions within the Pan-blue camp may change how much spending is allocated to defense and the amount of exchange between the KMT and the CPC; however, general trends will remain unchanged, as the KMT’s raison d’être and advantage consist of its unique ability to deal with both Beijing and Washington at the same time. The party currently enjoys 35% popular support according to recent polls, and upon a possible coalition with the TPP, it will be at 61%.
Cheng Li-wun’s visit to the mainland allows Beijing to demonstrate its ability to bypass the DPP to connect with the official opposition. President Xi Jinping will use the meeting to highlight common grounds between the two parties, such as the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation. Success for Beijing’s side is inevitable, as the Chinese populace on the mainland has always displayed an enthusiasm on exchanges between the two parties. Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Gaza War, and the war on Iran by the United States, China has remained an advocate for diplomatic solutions to various conflicts, such as playing a pivotal role in the ceasefire agreement by Iran. The country has not fought a war since 1979.
Yet, challenges remain for Cheng and her faction. The KMT chairman has much to gain if the mainland side mentions peaceful reunification, alleviating fears of armed conflict amongst Taiwanese electors. Furthermore, Cheng and the KMT have much to benefit if President Donald Trump states America’s opposition to Taiwan independence, following his meeting with Chairman Xi in May. Cheng will therefore be able to consolidate her position within the Party against the right-wing faction, if the latter two events occur. Failure to achieve these goals may result in poor electoral performance in the coming Fall 2026 local elections, especially in the central and southern parts of the island, giving an opportunity for the right-wing faction to coup Cheng from her chairmanship position. Potential Presidential candidates from the KMT all stem from the right-wing faction of the party, with Lu Shiow-yen as its main candidate. Chiang Wan-an is another potential candidate, although he will most likely wait till 2032. Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜), current President of the Legislative Yuan and 2020 Presidential candidate may attempt to run as well. He previously called Eric Chu his “eternal chairman” during a dinner with legislators, many who were absent in a subsequent outing with Cheng. Taipei mayors who have run for the Presidency include Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) 2014-2022, Ma Ying Jeou (馬英九) 1998-2006, and Chen Shuibian (陳水扁) 1994-1998, hence why Chiang Wan-an will follow suit. For Cheng to succeed, the chairman needs to push for a future candidate aligned with her vision and policies. Nonetheless, the climax in the clash between both factions will occur in the Fall of 2026, and the winner faction will lead the KMT into the 2028 Presidential elections.
