“The beginning of wisdom in human as well as international affairs was knowing when to stop.” Surely, the United States ignored this very saying of Paul Kennedy when it, under the leadership of Donald J. Trump, invaded Venezuela in January 2026, followed by its inadvertent aerial attack on Iran earlier this month, assassinating its spiritual-cum-political leadership. Both these actions by the US have breached the most basic norm of world order embedded in the UN Charter, i.e., the sovereignty and territorial integrity of a state. This incident has seemed to set new precedents for states in relation to the existing order, established by a myriad of efforts at the San Francisco Conference in 1945, whose organizational structure has helped maintain peace and security in the world for almost half a century. But this order has unravelled with every major event that the world is witnessing. It raises serious questions about the collapse of this world order.
In the case of the Pax Americana world order, the US played a central role as its creator. It established fundamental norms and rules for interaction among states in the international system. The regard for these norms by the US and other great powers had preserved its basic character and assisted in maintaining peace in the world. Whatever clandestine activities were done on the part of the US and other powers seemed to be in the veined ambit of fundamental rules manifesting the standing of international society. The aggressive posture shown by the US in dealing with its assumed threats emanating from Iran frayed not only the main pillars of international order but also its credibility as a world leader. The US was engaging in negotiations with Iran on the latter’s nuclear program, but these negotiations were used as a smokescreen to launch such a disastrous attack that killed Iran’s top leadership. This attack seems to let the US boil in its own stew, as it will lose its trustworthiness as a mediator and negotiator in resolving the world conflicts. These attacks have resulted in condemnation by the UN human rights experts because international law allows the use of force as the last resort, conditioned upon two situations: either the authorization by the UN Security Council or self-defense against an aggressive armed attack. Moreover, the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, linked with the regime change operation in Iran, also infringes the legitimate right of political independence as ensconced in the UN charter.
These aggressive moves by the US have transformed the world in ways never witnessed before and irreversibly reshaped the international order. Firstly, the use of force to intervene in the internal affairs of states and regime change will embolden other states to follow suit by taking unilateral actions. By evading international law, the US has significantly undermined its legitimacy in condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Chinese position vis-à-vis Taiwan. Secondly, the attack on Iran and its retaliation on Gulf countries have seemed to diminish the US’s credibility as a guarantor of security and stability in the Middle East. The network of bases hit by Iran has crushed the perception of Gulf states as safe hubs for investment, business, and tourism. This realization by the Gulf states will reshape their policy of totally relying on the US and make parallel arrangements with other Muslim countries like Turkey, Pakistan, and maybe Iran. Moreover, if this war escalates and the GCC countries continue to face the brunt of this war, the established petrodollar framework will also come under strain with huger repercussions for global trade and energy security. Thirdly, the blatant acts of aggression by the US will impair transatlantic order of cooperation. With conflict escalation, Europe will face energy volatility and refugee crises. Additionally, Europe’s support to the US will be reciprocated by the US support to Europe in Ukraine. Lastly, in the wake of the protracted war in the Middle East and the resultant manifestation of US boots on the ground, anti-American feelings will galvanize and reactivate the sleeper cells of the non-state actors. This will bring about more upheaval and chaos. Unless the US ends this war and recomposes the world order, the risk of the world becoming a dangerous place with no regard for any international order will remain high.
